446
FXUS66 KMTR 160434
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
934 PM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1244 PM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025

 - Warming and drying trend through Saturday

 - Long period northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk
   of sneaker waves and rip currents to Pacific Coast beaches by
   Saturday

 - Cooler conditions return Sunday

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 851 PM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025

The forecast remains on track tonight with gradual warming through
the end of the week, peaking on Saturday. With the pleasant
weather expected to begin the weekend, please keep in mind that
long period northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk of
sneaker waves and rip currents to Pacific Coast beaches on
Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1244 PM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025
(This evening through Thursday)

Another cool day is expected across the region with lingering cloud
cover. Temperatures will likely warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s
across much of the region with isolated pockets nearing 70 degrees F.
The mid/upper level low is now located over Nevada and will continue
a east-northeastward track over the next 24 hours or so. In wake of
the exiting trough, high pressure will nose in from the eastern
Pacific. This will result in a gradual warming trend the next few
days and weak offshore winds, mainly in the higher elevations
beginning tonight.

With offshore winds aloft, only expecting FEW/SCT clouds tonight and
may become BKN by late evening in areas that typically see overnight
stratus. Temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday look to bottom
out in the 40s across the interior and lower 50s around the San
Francisco Bayshore and coastal areas. The highest peaks across the
region very well may drop into the upper 30s, especially across the
Central Coast where the offshore winds are expected to be weaker.

Temperatures on Thursday look to warm into the the upper 60s near
the coast to lower 70s inland with mostly sunny skies by the
afternoon. Again, these temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees
below average.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1244 PM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)

The warming and drying trend will continue through Friday as
temperatures rebound to near seasonal averages as weak offshore flow
persists. By Saturday, forecast to be the warmest day of the week,
we are expecting temperatures to be about 5 to 10 degrees above
normal.

By Sunday, what appears to be a dry frontal boundary will move
across the region cooling temperatures slightly. Rain chances have
been removed from the forecast as the a mid/upper level low drops
out of the Gulf of Alaska and moves inland over the Pacific
Northwest on Monday. Zonal flow is forecast across the Bay Area and
Central Coast through the remainder of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 934 PM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025

It`s currently VFR with a decrease in low cloud coverage since
late afternoon. However, based on recent mesoscale model output
it`s not a high confidence forecast as to whether or not low
clouds will continue to steadily diminish tonight and Thursday
morning. 06z TAFs are a blend of VFR-MVFR for the overnight with
night-time cooling also leading to patchy fog /LIFR-IFR/ by early
Thursday morning. Diurnal surface heating and mixing results in
VFR Thursday.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR-MVFR. West to northwest wind 5 to 10 knots.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Light and variable winds to light
southeast winds tonight and Thursday morning. Onshore winds near
10 knots redeveloping Thursday afternoon. Light and variable winds
to light southeast winds redevelop Thursday night.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 851 PM PDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Light to gentle breezes persist across the waters this evening,
building to a moderate to fresh breeze through the end of this
week. A longer period northwesterly swell arrives this weekend 7
to 10 feet at 15 seconds.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...Canepa

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea