845
FXUS66 KMTR 170341
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
841 PM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 214 PM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Quiet weather this week with a gradual warm up expected Tuesday and
Wednesday, with a temperatures gradually falling back to near normal
or slightly below normal for the end of the week and weekend. &&

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 819 PM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025

The evening weather balloon surprised us with dry air all the way
to the surface. The PW was measured at 0.39", which is in the
lowest 5% of historical observations for the month of June. With
this dry air, the skies are totally clear. There is still some
marine influence due to onshore winds, but the marine layer has
compressed to around 1,200 feet from 1,700 this morning. Even
within this layer, the humidity is much lower than normal, and
it`s likely that most areas will stay cloud free through the
night. Clear skies and dry air will likely lead to a chilly
morning, but near normal 850 mb temperature should keep the low
temperature records safe tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 PM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025

A weak upper level trough continues to track across the PacNW and
northern CA today, with upper level ridging beginning to build in
for Tuesday. This will be the start of a brief warming trend putting
us closer to our seasonal highs for Tuesday. The forecast challenge
for this period will be trying to figure out the depth of the marine
layer and the expansion of the stratus. Guidance has it varying
between 1000-1700ft for the period, with the best chances for
stratus redeveloping along the San Mateo and Central Coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 214 PM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Upper level ridging holds through Wednesday with the next hint of
height falls occuring late Wednesday into Thursday. An upper level
low is slated to slide down the western Canadian cost and enter the
PacNW for the weekend. This will lead to a period of troughiness and
temperatures falling to near normal or just below normal. Expect the
summer time stratus to return, with the fine tuning of its arrival
occuring as we get closer to the later portion of the work week and
weekend. &&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1028 AM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Coastal stratus eroding nicely across the region this morning and
should be clearing to VFR for the rest of the day. Exceptions may
be isolated coastal terminals such as HAF, which may end up with a
mixed bag today. Expecting most terminals to remain VFR through
tonight as dry air sufficient enough to mix out the clouds
intrudes into the marine layer. Gusty NW winds this afternoon as a
shortwave trough starts to move through the region.

Vicinity of SFO...Once stratus clears this morning, VFR is
anticipated for the rest of the period. Gusty NW winds this
afternoon through the San Bruno gap, potentially in excess of 30
kts and up to 35 kts. Winds diminish overnight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...A bit slower clearing down along the
Monterey Bay this morning, but still expecting a VFR afternoon.
Breezy diurnal onshore flow and a marginal return of stratus
expected tonight. Low confidence on if tonight`s stratus will be
enough coverage to constitute a CIG or not.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1028 AM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Coastal stratus eroding nicely across the region this morning and
should be clearing to VFR for the rest of the day. Exceptions may
be isolated coastal terminals such as HAF, which may end up with a
mixed bag today. Expecting most terminals to remain VFR through
tonight as dry air sufficient enough to mix out the clouds
intrudes into the marine layer. Gusty NW winds this afternoon as a
shortwave trough starts to move through the region.

Vicinity of SFO...Once stratus clears this morning, VFR is
anticipated for the rest of the period. Gusty NW winds this
afternoon through the San Bruno gap, potentially in excess of 30
kts and up to 35 kts. Winds diminish overnight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...A bit slower clearing down along the
Monterey Bay this morning, but still expecting a VFR afternoon.
Breezy diurnal onshore flow and a marginal return of stratus
expected tonight. Low confidence on if tonight`s stratus will be
enough coverage to constitute a CIG or not.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 819 PM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Gusty northwest winds continue across most of the waters along
with moderate to rough seas. These conditions look to last
through the week and into the weekend with slightly increased
swell heights. Gale force gusts will occur near the coastal jet
regions of Point Reyes and Point Sur in the afternoons and look to
linger into the evenings for much of the forecast.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Mry Bay-SF Bay N
     of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Mry Bay.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-
     10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to
     Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to
     Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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