160
FXUS66 KMTR 281822
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1022 AM PST Fri Nov 28 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 101 AM PST Fri Nov 28 2025

 - Pattern change brings milder temperatures today

 - No major changes in the forecast weather through the next week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 AM PST Fri Nov 28 2025

Ample low level moisture, lack of strong mixing, and a more moist
profile through 5k feet has led to another cool and cloudy start.
Pretty much a repeat of the last few days with solid clouds for N
and E Bay Valleys, in SF Bay and a new addition this AM is Santa
Clara Valley. A slow clearing of clouds is expected again with far
interior N and E Bay lingering the lastest. As such, below
seasonal temperatures until we get some insolation at the surface
for the N and E Bay. The inversion is pretty compressed too so
some fog in the 1-3 mile range will continue as well.

No update needed this morning.

MM

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 101 AM PST Fri Nov 28 2025
(Today and tonight)
Satellite imagery shows high-level clouds over the Bay Area,
associated with a weakening frontal boundary that is moving across
the state. Stratus decks are also visible across the North and East
Bay valleys and parts of eastern San Mateo County and the Santa
Clara Valley. The stratus decks will stay in place through sunrise
and for a couple of hours afterward, with some areas remaining
socked in through the day, but the upper level disruption of the
passing front may be enough to keep the widespread dense fog away
this morning. In the event that patchy dense fog does form, drivers
should slow down, use low beam headlights, and leave extra space
between them and the car in front.

Today marks a transition period between the departure of the ridge
that has brought us seasonally warm weather these last few days and
the development of a very strong ridge over the Gulf of Alaska which
will promote downstream troughs into the contiguous 48 states.
The daytime should feature sunny skies for most people, with
lingering stratus possible in areas of eastern Contra Costa and
Alameda counties connected to the Central Valley, in addition to
western parts of San Francisco and San Mateo Counties. High
temperatures today will range from the upper 50s to the middle 60s
across most of the Bay Area, the middle 60s to lower 70s across
inland parts of the Central Coast, and the lower to middle 50s
across the highest mountain peaks and ridgelines. These high
temperatures may need to be adjusted downward if stratus lingers
longer than expected across a place.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 101 AM PST Fri Nov 28 2025
(Saturday through Thursday)

It might be the day after Thanksgiving but the weather pattern might
make some people recall Groundhog Day. There will be a couple of
troughs digging into the Intermountain West but these will remain
displaced too far east to give us any significant concerns. For our
region, the next week should feature a rather persistent forecast
light offshore flows, seasonally mild temperatures, and dry and
clear skies, which should help eat away at the pool of stratus that
has developed across the Central Valley.

There is a very slight chance (10-15% probability at most) of light
precipitation towards the latter part of next week if one of the
troughs digging into the Intermountain West deepens into a cutoff
low that retrogrades over southern California and merges with a
second cutoff low coming in off the coast, but the probabilities
are so low and the nuances numerous enough that the forecast
remains highly uncertain. CPC outlooks for December 5 to 11
features a slight lean towards precipitation totals above seasonal
averages for the Central Coast, but the key word here is slight
with the CPC putting the probabilities around 33-40%. For context,
the seasonal average rainfall total for Salinas Airport for that
period comes in at just under half an inch.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 959 AM PST Fri Nov 28 2025

Another challenging and impactful morning for Bay Area terminals
due to another push of low clouds and patchy fog. Lack of mixing
has led to slow clearing - if you want to call it that. OAK will
be VFR through this afternoon, but SFO and SJC will struggle.
Pushed back clearing, but could see it even delayed 19-20Z. N and
E Bay SCT late again 20-21Z. Monterey Bay VFR. Will bring clouds
and patchy fog again tonight.

Vicinity of SFO...Cams show pockets of blue NE of terminal. Will
keep IFR conditions through 19Z, but could see gradual clearing
19-20Z. Expecting VFR this afternoon. IFR cigs again tonight
impacting Sat AM rush.

SFO Bridge Approach...Low cigs impacting approach too, just like
SFO. VFR later this afternoon.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. A few clouds may develop tonight,
but not until late. Hi-res guidance keeps drier air around
Monterey Bay and went drier.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 959 AM PST Fri Nov 28 2025

Northerly flow will persist over the coastal waters. Winds will be
locally stronger to fresh breezes south of Point Pinos until
Saturday. Winds will decrease early Saturday before increasing
late Saturday into early next week. Hazardous marine conditions
return midweek as a cut-off low moves through the coastal waters
with winds increasing and wave heights building due to incoming
long period westerly swell.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 338 AM PST Fri Nov 28 2025

Moderate to long period northwesterly swell will result in an
increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents. Breaking waves
of 13 to 18 feet are expected. A beach hazards statement is in
effect for the coastline from Sonoma County to Monterey County
through 10 PM PST Sunday evening. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly
run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over
rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and
stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Pinos to
     Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM

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