623
FXUS66 KMTR 091224
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
524 AM PDT Thu Oct 9 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 151 AM PDT Thu Oct 9 2025

 - Increasing clouds and cool with areas of drizzle

 - Light rain chances increase Friday through Saturday morning for
the North Bay

 - Confidence increasing for widespread wetting rain the first half
of next week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 151 AM PDT Thu Oct 9 2025
(Today and tonight)

A surface trough extending from NorCal south to offshore of the
Central Coast will linger along the coastline today as the first of
several upper level shortwave troughs ejects east from the base of
the upper closed low to our north. Light rain and/or drizzle is
expected to persist across the North Bay most of today into tonight,
while coastal locations from the Bay Area south down to the Big Sur
will see periods of drizzle through most of the morning into the
early afternoon. As the upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast
deepens and slowly pushes onshore tonight into tomorrow a cold front
will drop temperatures in the North Bay into the mid-40s by early
Friday morning, with 50s most other locations, except for higher
elevation areas of the Central Coast that will also drop into the
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 151 AM PDT Thu Oct 9 2025
(Friday through Wednesday)

Light rain chances linger across the North Bay Friday and begin to
taper off by early Saturday morning behind a second cold front that
won`t impact day time highs much, with temperatures rebounding under
sunny skies and a drier airmass Saturday afternoon. Upper level
shortwave ridging Saturday will result in a pleasant day area wide
under mostly sunny skies. Sunday will be similar to Saturday while
the upper level pattern shifts to zonal flow across the region. By
Monday the next rainmaker starts deepening to our north. Consensus
is improving with increasing confidence of multiple rounds of
wetting rain area wide from late Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 AM PDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Light showers and pockets of drizzle are affecting the coast and the
North Bay and these chances will spread south into the SF Bay
through the morning. Most the the region is being affected by mid-
level clouds with some pockets of MVFR CIGS. Cloud cover scattered
and precip erodes into the mid to late morning leading VFR
conditions across the region. Expect moderate to breezy winds
through the afternoon and into the evening. Winds reduce into the
night as drizzle chances and pockets of for begin to affect the North
Bay.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Drizzle and slight
chances for light rain affect the terminal through the morning with
mid-level cloud cover. Winds increase into the afternoon as cloud
cover thins. Winds stay moderate through the evening, but reduce
into the night and become light and variable into Friday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Scattered mid-level clouds linger around
the Monterey Bay through the late morning. Winds stay light before
increasing into the afternoon but ease again into the late evening.
Expect scattered low cloud to return to the terminals into the night.



&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 523 AM PDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Light rains and drizzle are crossing the waters but erode later
into the day.Expect light southwest winds will gradually shift
back to a northwest breeze through the day but shift southerly
again in the late night. Light rains build into the waters through
friday and exit into that night. Northwesterly winds arrive
Saturday and increase to a strong breeze that night, building
rough seas by Sunday. Disturbed conditions with periods of rain
and gusty winds are expected across the waters early next week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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