888
FXUS66 KMTR 040522
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
922 PM PST Mon Nov 3 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 134 PM PST Mon Nov 3 2025

 - Preparations for upcoming storm should be prioritized for today
   in Northern Sonoma and Napa. Areas south of Santa Rosa still
   have time on Tuesday.

 - Mostly beneficial rainfall beginning early Wednesday morning.
   Slight potential for localized nuisance flooding in the North Bay.

 - Wind Advisory in effect late Tuesday night through Wednesday
   afternoon for North Bay, East Bay, SF Peninsula, and Santa Cruz
   Mtns. Gusty wind 35-45 mph with potential for brief 55 mph
   gusts along frontal passage Wednesday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 921 PM PST Mon Nov 3 2025

Satellite imagery is showing mid- to high-level clouds streaming
across the Bay Area, the fringe effects of a precursor rain band
impacting the North Coast, and stratus development within the
Monterey Bay region and the Big Sur coast. High resolution models
are continuing to depict light showers across the higher elevations
of the North Bay Tuesday, with southerly winds steadily increasing
in strength in advance of an impactful system coming through the Bay
Area Tuesday night into Wednesday; in particular, the HRRR and the
PG&E WRF model are both suggesting that the strongest wind gusts,
most intense rain, and the peak of the slight chance for
thunderstorms could come through the core of the Bay Area during the
morning commute on Wednesday. Make any final preparations for the
storm during the daytime Tuesday! Clear out gutters, secure loose
outdoor objects, and remember the following: Turn around, don`t
drown! When thunder roars, go indoors! See a flash, dash inside!

A Coastal Flood Advisory has also been issued for bayshore locations
along the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays from Tuesday
through Saturday due to the chance for minor flooding at the
immediate coastline during the highest high tide. Up to 1.2 to 1.5
feet of inundation over typically dry land is possible. The next
high tide at the San Francisco tide gauge is at 942 AM on Tuesday,
with 0.72 feet of inundation (6.56 ft MHHW) forecast. The timing of
the high tide can vary up to 90 minutes earlier or later than at San
Francisco along the coast or throughout the Bay, respectfully, and
flooding may begin as early as two hours before the time of the peak
high tide. Protect flood prone property, and do not drive around
barricades!

DialH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 134 PM PST Mon Nov 3 2025
(This evening through Tuesday)

Another quiet day across the region, yet up to 10 degrees cooler
across the interior as widespread onshore flow has returned ahead of
our approaching frontal system set to move across the region on
Wednesday. Mostly sunny sky conditions are forecast this afternoon
with temperatures warming into the low to mid 70s across the
interior (approaching 80 degrees F in the warmest inland spots
across interior Central Coast). Near the coast, temperatures are
expected to be in the upper 50s to 60s.

Low clouds are forecast to return late tonight and into Tuesday
morning as the marine layer deepens. Cloud cover will retreat to the
coast across the Central Coast while lingering over the North Bay.
This will be as a cold front approaches the region and potentially
brings rain to far northern Sonoma and Napa counties early Tuesday
morning. This rain will be mostly driven by orographic lift over the
higher terrain of the North Bay. How much rain we see out of this
will be an important factor with regards to whether or not
we experience any localized flooding across this region.

Tuesday will be a transition day before the aforementioned cold
front moves across the region Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 134 PM PST Mon Nov 3 2025
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)

Tuesday night is when winds are really forecast to pick up in
strength as a surface low moves into the Pacific Northwest. As such,
we have a Wind Advisory in place from 11 PM Tuesday through 4 PM
Wednesday. This is in effect for the North Bay, East Bay, San
Francisco Peninsula, and Santa Cruz Mtns. We are expecting
southerly winds of 25-35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph in the the
valleys with isolated gusts to 55 mph possible along North Bay
coastal areas and ridgetops Wednesday morning as the cold front
passes through. Wind gusts may exceed 60 mph in the region`s higher
peaks.

Rainfall totals look mostly beneficial outside of localized nuisance
flooding across the North Bay, especially depending on how much warm
sector rain falls across this region. The heaviest rainfall will be
across the North Bay where we could see between 1.50"-2.50" in the
coastal ranges and higher elevations of the North Bay and 0.75"-
2.00" in the North Bay Valleys (highest in places such as
Cloverdale) by Wednesday night. Between 0.50"-1.00" in the City of
San Francisco and the coastal ranges of San Mateo and the Santa Cruz
Mountains. The Santa Lucia Range can expect between 0.25"-0.75". As
one heads southward and inland, generally between 0.10"-0.50" can be
expected across the Santa Clara Valley and across Monterey and San
Benito counties.

There is also about a 20% chance of thunderstorms as the main
frontal boundary moves through the North Bay (early Wednesday
morning through the afternoon), with less than 10% as one moves
southward into the Bay Area.

All this said, the Wednesday morning commute will be windy and
wet, especially across the North Bay and Bay Area! So be sure to
allow extra time to reach your destination if traveling.

Conditions begin to dry out by Wednesday night and into Thursday.
Zonal flow will develop across the Bay Area and Central Coast and
persist through late week. The North Bay is where we may see
rainfall off and on at times through late week and into the upcoming
weekend. However, forecast confidence remains low to moderate in the
extended.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 921 PM PST Mon Nov 3 2025

IFR-LIFR stratus developing across the Monterey Bay region and
lingering along the coast south of Point Sur, with mid-to high level
clouds streaming in through the Bay Area and points north. The
interaction between the coastal stratus and the higher prefrontal
clouds is a complex interaction as the high clouds could interfere
with the radiational cooling that would contribute to fog or low
stratus, decreasing the confidence in the forecast for stratus
formation tonight and dissipation on Tuesday morning. Current best
forecast is for the stratus to expand into the coastal valleys
through the night and retreat to the coastal regions through the
morning. Southerly winds will increase through Tuesday with the
strongest winds developing near or slightly beyond the end of the 24-
hour TAF period. Scattered showers will develop in the North Bay
Tuesday night but the main rain band likewise arrives after the end
of the TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO... VFR at present. Coastal stratus and prefrontal
clouds combine to give the terminal a moderate confidence for MVFR
ceilings in the early part of Tuesday morning, dissipating after
sunrise. The winds will shift to a more south-southwest flow on
Tuesday in advance of the front, which continue to increase through
and beyond the end of the TAF period. Some high resolution models
depict chances for MVFR ceilings during the Tuesday evening
timeframe, but confidence is too low to include in the TAF.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... IFR-LIFR stratus is developing, currently
impacting SNS and will come over MRY sometime tonight. Local effects
will influence the time of stratus development so the TAF ceiling
forecast is a moderate confidence forecast. Strong southwest winds
will develop at MRY Tuesday afternoon, while confidence is moderate
that winds at SNS develop from the northwest. Winds diminish Tuesday
evening with moderate confidence of radiative fog at MRY that night.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 921 PM PST Mon Nov 3 2025

Moderate breezes across the waters will continue through the night
before increasing on Tuesday, with winds across the waters  to the
north of Point Pinos already coming from the south and  those to
the south gradually shifting to the south through the  night. By
late Tuesday and into Wednesday, near- gale force to  gale force
sustained winds are expected. Widespread gale force  gusts are
expected during this time with isolated storm force  gusts
possible for the northern most waters. Seas will build to  become
very rough for the inner waters and outer waters Wednesday  and
Thursday. Rain showers Tuesday will turn into widespread  rainfall
and a slight chance for thunderstorms Wednesday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 402 AM PST Mon Nov 3 2025

A long period northwesterly swell will continue to bring an
increased risk for sneaker waves, rip currents, and breaking waves
of up to 20 feet to Pacific Coast beaches today. High surf
conditions are possible, especially at the west and northwest
facing beaches. Remember, sneaker waves can unexpectedly run
significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over
rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and
stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. Swimmers
should always swim near a lifeguard. Stay off the rocks, remain
out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions, and never
turn your back on the ocean!

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 3 AM PST Tuesday for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 2 PM PST Saturday
     for CAZ006-506-508-529-530.

     Wind Advisory from 10 PM Tuesday to 4 PM PST Wednesday for
     CAZ006-502>506-508>510-512-515.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PST Tuesday for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-
     SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
     Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of
     Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Tuesday to 3 PM PST Wednesday for
     Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-
     Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH

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