042
FXUS66 KMTR 150000
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
400 PM PST Fri Nov 14 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 204 AM PST Fri Nov 14 2025

 - Active weather pattern will continue this weekend and into the
   middle of next weekend.

 - Noticeably cooler conditions late weekend into next week.

 - Hazardous beach conditions persist through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1117 AM PST Fri Nov 14 2025
(This afternoon through Saturday)

The radarscope is not nearly as illuminated as it was this time
yesterday, though as we approach convective temperatures, there
could be some pulse type shower activity. Not all locations will
see rain this afternoon. This "lull" in precipitation is
anticipated to last through this afternoon and into the first part
of tonight. As our the main upper low responsible for Thursday`s
rainfall slowly inches to the east, it`ll induce modest warm air
advection over the relatively cooler/moist airmass. This
isentropic ascent will result in a broad rain shield developing
across the California Bight just before sunrise. This rain shield
will expand into portions of the Central Coast after sunrise
Saturday with rain showers as far north as potentially the South
and East Bay as moisture pivots around the main upper low.

Forecast soundings between Monterey and Paso Robles show around 50
J/KG of MUCAPE with a moist adiabatic profile, supportive of
largely warm-rain dominated cloud processes. This won`t
necessarily support an appreciable threat for thunderstorms, but
it could mean a risk for heavy rainfall. Portions of the Santa
Lucia Range received anywhere from 4-6" of rainfall on Thursday.
While the potential for an additional 2" is around 50-60%, it`s
most probable that the axis of heaviest rainfall (over 4") will
remain to the south of our Central Coast counties. If this upper
low, however, remains a bit farther to the north, then there`s the
potential that this heavier rainfall axis could shift northward
into a greater portion of the Santa Lucia and Gabilan Ranges which
would be impactful. For now, peak rainfall amounts are generally
1-2" (isolated 2.5") across the higher terrain of the Central
Coast (Santa Lucia, Gabilan Ranges, and Santa Cruz mountains).

The PoP forecast required some alterations from the blended
guidance as it`s largely very broad-brushed. The higher-resolution
NWP, however, is in decent agreement, with the placement of the
greatest precipitation, however, and confidence is medium to high
in this being a better starting point for Saturday`s rain
forecast. As it stands now, portions of the Central Coast, parts
of the South Bay, East Bay, and extreme eastern portions of the
North Bay should see rain chances between 50% and 90% on
Saturday, largely through the morning and into the afternoon.
Farther west, rain chances are 20 to 50% and in fact, there`s a
reasonable chance that during the daylight hours, most areas west
of SF Bay remain largely rain-free. As noted above, there`s
uncertainty in the track of the upper low (and thus where
precipitation will pivot), so I`ll keep rain in the forecast here.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1117 AM PST Fri Nov 14 2025
(Saturday night through next Thursday)

The initial upper low will be kicked eastward rapidly by our
next, and likely more impactful system on Sunday and into Monday.
There still remains some uncertainty with regard to the timing,
but the current expectation is that an amplifying trough will
skirt eastward during this time period. These types of troughs can
present challenges in timing. If further amplification unfolds
than currently thought, the east-west progression frequently slows
down compared to initial forecast. This is reflected in the
blends` PoPs which are largely broad and span multiple time
ranges, when in reality a bulk of the precipitation may be
confined to a smaller time period. This may be most noticeable on
Sunday and while the current forecast carries PoPs through the
entire day, it`s probable that there will be a brief window of
rain-free conditions across the area Sunday afternoon.

As it stands now, the most probable time for the heaviest
precipitation appears that it`ll be be Sunday evening and into
Monday morning. In fact, some of the deterministic guidance
suggest that even portions of the pre-dawn hours on Monday may be
relatively "dry." Given some of the timing differences, it`s wise
to keep PoPs a little more general until 1) higher-resolution NWP
arrives and 2) the evolution of the upper trough becomes more
certain.

The wind field does not appear as expansive as our last event,
however, there`s a corridor of southerly 925mb winds of 40-45
knots ahead of the main upper trough on Monday. This could result
in Wind Advisory caliber gusts across the Central Coast as well as
encourage upslope flow across the Santa Lucia Range and Santa Cruz
Mountain regions and this does appear to be reflected in the NBM
very well. This system has the potential to be more impactful,
however, as some of the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) does
indicate a higher end rain event compared to model climate. At
this time, the aforementioned upslope regions are most probable
for the heaviest of rainfall. with an additional 1-2" of rainfall.

As the main upper low swings through the region, snow levels
could drop down to around 5400 feet. If enough moisture remains as
the cooler air arrives, then it`s possible that a few snow flakes
mix in with the rain across the higher terrain of the Central
Coast. At this time, no impacts are anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 357 PM PST Fri Nov 14 2025

Currently VFR at all terminals. A well mixed atmosphere with
offshore flow should be enough to stave off any sub-VFR conditions
tonight with the exception of STS which has the potential for fog.
Winds will be light and variable overnight. Rain showers return
tomorrow morning and are expected to persist through the TAF
period. Ceilings may lower to become sub-VFR towards the end of
the TAF period, but confidence is too low to include at this time.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with southwesterly flow. VFR is
expected to prevail through the TAF period. Winds will veer to
become northeasterly tonight, backing to become westerly by tomorrow
afternoon. Rain showers will approach the terminal by late-morning
and are expected through the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Rain showers will impact the San Mateo Bridge
Approach before they impact the terminal by approximately an hour or
so.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with northwesterly flow at
MRY and VFR with westerly flow at SNS. Winds will veer tonight to
become easterly. Rain showers will approach the terminals by mid-
morning, persisting through the TAF period. Ceilings may become sub-
VFR by that point, but confidence is too low to include in the TAF
at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 357 PM PST Fri Nov 14 2025

A gentle to moderate breeze with rough seas will prevail tonight.
Moderate to rough seas and moderate to fresh breezes will prevail
through Sunday morning. Conditions deteriorate Sunday afternoon
with strong to near-gale winds, rough to very rough seas, rain,
and a chance for thunderstorms lingering through Monday.
Conditions begin to improve by Tuesday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1117 AM PST Fri Nov 14 2025

Hazardous beach conditions will continue through tonight as long
period westerly swell arrives. Breaking waves of 15 to 20 feet
are expected and there`s an increased risk for rip currents and
sneaker waves. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly
farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and
jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in
the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. Stay off the rocks and
never turn your back on the ocean!

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM PST this evening for CAZ006-
     505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PST Saturday for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bain
LONG TERM....Bain
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

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