046
FXUS66 KMTR 161959
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1159 AM PST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 134 AM PST Sun Nov 16 2025

 - Light rain gradually diminishes across the southern Bay Area
   and Central Coast Sunday morning

 - Next system arrives late Sunday with a strong cold front, gusty
   winds, and moderate to heavy rain expected overnight. Slight
   chance of thunderstorms (20-25%) Sunday night into Monday.

 - Drier weather returns Tuesday-Wednesday before a weak,
   beneficial system passes through Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 AM PST Sun Nov 16 2025

The forecast remains on track so far. A few showers are being
observed on radar this morning, with mainly cloudy skies being
observed. Showers should continue to become more isolated to
scattered in nature for the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 134 AM PST Sun Nov 16 2025
(Today and tonight)

Widespread light, stratiform rain continues across the southern Bay
Area and Central Coast with around 0.5-1.0" having fallen with this
system so far. Moderate rain will gradually become more scattered
and lighten by mid to late morning as the cut-off low progress
eastward. Showers will become more scattered by the afternoon as
weak, shortwave ridging moves through but this is short lived as
another, deeper, upper level trough moves in the Bay Area. This
system is associated with a strong surface cold front which will
bring moderate to heavy rain, potential for thunderstorms, and
gusty winds ahead of it.

Compared to Saturday, we can expected a more typical north to south
progression of the rain band ahead of this cold front. Moderate to
heavy rain will reach the North Bay Sunday evening before spreading
into the Bay Area and Central Coast Sunday night into early Monday
morning. The North Bay Mountains and Santa Cruz Mountains look to
receive an additional 1-2" of rain Sunday night into Monday while
the Santa Lucia Range receives an additional 2-3". For the rest of
the Bay Area and Central Coast, totals will generally range from 0.5-
1.25" Sunday night into Monday. High resolution guidance is
relatively consistent that a period of moderate to heavy rain will
develop ahead of the cold front as it passes through the Bay
Area/Central Coast. Nuisance flooding and rises in small
creeks/streams are likely as this band passes through. Given the
amount of rain the Bay Area and Central Coast has had over the last
week, soils are either saturated or close to saturation which
increases surface runoff and, consequentially, the risk of nuisance
flooding. If you encounter flooding while driving or encounter a
road closure due to flooding, do not attempt to drive through it
instead find a different route.

The other two impacts to consider this evening will be winds and
thunderstorm potential. Winds will strengthen this evening and
remain gusty overnight. Wind gusts will generally peak between 30 to
35 mph with locally stronger gusts across the higher terrain and
mountain gaps/passes (Altamont Pass region). As the main rain band
and cold front pass through, it is possible that temporarily
stronger gusts will develop. Winds will gradually diminish
throughout the day on Monday after peaking overnight Sunday into
Monday. Now for thunderstorm potential, thunderstorm potential
increases late Sunday afternoon into the evening across the marine
environment. The NBM is highlighting a 30-35% chance of
thunderstorms across the northern waters Sunday evening/night with a
20-25% chance of thunderstorms throughout the Bay Area/Central Coast
Sunday night into Monday. The NAM shows a relatively unstable
environment with 300-500 J/kg of MUCAPE and 700-500mb lapse rates
between 7-8C/km. Thunderstorm potential peaks ahead of of cold
frontal passage with chances diminishing to 10-15% by Monday
morning. This is not to knock the chances of thunderstorms in the
post-frontal environment but know chances are highest ahead of/with
cold frontal passage.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 134 AM PST Sun Nov 16 2025
(Monday through Saturday)

Periods of moderate rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms
continue through Monday morning as a deep upper level trough pushes
through the West Coast. Rain and thunderstorm chances generally
diminish Monday afternoon into the evening with rain to fully exit
the region Monday night into Tuesday morning. Shortwave ridging will
build in Tuesday to Wednesday which will allow us to dry out across
the Bay Area and Central Coast. This will be short lived before
another trough pushes into the West Coast late Wednesday and brings
light rain Thursday and Friday. Precipitation totals for this event
have trended downwards over the last few days with the center of the
upper level trough now positioned further east/inland. This system
is still several days out so continued fluctuations in precipitation
are likely but, for now, this storm looks to produce light, largely
beneficial rain fall across the region. Drier conditions return by
mid to late Friday and continue into the weekend.

In the wake of Sunday-Monday`s system a much cooler airmass will
move into the region. This will keep temperatures in the upper 50s
to low 60s and overnight lows in the low 40s. Tuesday and Wednesday
look to be the coldest morning`s with lows in the 30s across the
interior Central Coast. Pockets of near freezing temperatures are
small so no frost/freeze products are likely next week at this time.
The combination of cooler temperatures and lingering moisture in the
Central Coast may result in some snow flakes across the Santa Lucia

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 AM PST Sun Nov 16 2025


Mid-level clouds with spotty MVFR CIGS linger through the day with
some passing light showers into the afternoon. Expect light winds
into the afternoon but southerly winds build through the afternoon
and continue to increase into the night ahead of the next cold
front. Winds and gusts peak as the front passes over the terminals
overnight and into Monday morning, with gusts ranging from 25 to 25
kts possible. The main rain band of the front will offer moderate
to, at times, heavy rain, leading to reductions in visibilities.
Lighter showers linger behind the front and winds weaken, but stay
moderate to breezy later into Monday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...MVFR CIGs scatter into the afternoon but mid-level
clouds last through the day. Winds turn southerly for the afternoon
and increase into the night as the first few pre-frontal showers
arrive. Strong winds and gusts affect the terminal later into the
night with gusts above 30 kts. Winds reduce in the wake of the main
rain band

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Scattered low clouds and broken mid-level
clouds last through the day. Light to moderate southwest winds build
into the afternoon but turn more southerly and southeasterly into
the evening and become breezy and gusty. MVFR Clouds build into the
night. CIGs rise as the main rain band arrives into the night. The
rain band will cause reduced visibilities and offer the strongest
winds. Behind the front, winds turn westerly and stay breezy with
lingering light showers.


&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 952 AM PST Sun Nov 16 2025

Passing light showers linger through through the day. Expect
building southerly winds that become breezy to gusty into the
night. Winds will shift to a strong NW breeze as a new cold front
arrives. This front will cause occasional gale force gusts, very
rough seas, and poor visibility in heavy rain. There is also
chances for thunderstorms as the front moves through. Conditions
will improve Wednesday before very high WNW swell rolls in
Thursday night through Friday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Monday for SF Bay N of Bay
     Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Monday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PST Monday
     for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
     Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM PST
     Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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