290
FXUS66 KMTR 112128
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
128 PM PST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 127 PM PST Tue Nov 11 2025

 - Unsettled weather pattern returns Wednesday

 - Moderate rain, strong southerly winds, and a slight chance for
   thunderstorms late Wednesday through early Thursday

 - Wind Advisory in effect from 10 PM Wednesday through 10 AM
   Thursday for the interior Bay Area and Central Coast

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 127 PM PST Tue Nov 11 2025
(This evening through Wednesday)

No major changes to the ongoing forecast, however the widespread
coverage of mid/high level clouds may limit the amount of warming we
see today. However, dry conditions prevail across the region as the
ridge aloft shift southeast and begins to flatten ahead of our next
storm system.

Tonight we are expecting the affects from a weak to moderate
atmospheric river to begin in the coastal ranges of the Bay Area and
then across the Central Coast by early Wednesday morning. This will
be due to orographic lift as southerly winds increase. However,
inland valleys will remain dry Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Wednesday will be the day we begin to see the full force of impacts
across the entire region as southerly winds will continue to
increase as the atmospheric river approaches with PWAT values up to
1.50". As for winds, we have issued a Wind Advisory from 10 PM
Wednesday through 10 AM Thursday for the interior Bay Area and
Central Coast for southerly winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to
45 mph. Wind gusts up to 55 mph are expected along the coast and in
the higher elevations. Gusts have the potential to exceed 60 mph in
the region`s peaks, favored gaps, and passes.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 127 PM PST Tue Nov 11 2025
(Wednesday night through next Monday)

By Wednesday night, a strong surface low will advance towards the
Pacific Northwest while a trough approaches the West Coast. This
will be the driving force that pushes this system through at a
decent pace without stalling. As such, we are expecting the greatest
rainfall totals from 4 AM Wednesday through 4 AM Friday to be in the
coastal ranges where we expect to see 2-3" of rainfall (as these
areas are expecting to pick up rainfall ahead of the main frontal
system). Rainfall totals during the aforementioned time frame look
to be around 1-2" in the higher terrain elsewhere in the region and
the North Bay, 1-1.25" in the City of San Francisco, and generally
less than 1" in the interior valleys and around the Monterey Bay
region. There is the potential for less rainfall within the
typically rain shadowed valleys (perhaps significantly less
rainfall).

There remains less than a 20% chance of thunderstorms mainly early
Thursday morning across the North Bay and Bay Area. These chances
shift southward into the afternoon as the boundary shifts inland and
to the south. The main concerns will be strong gusty winds, heavy
rain, and lightning. In wake of the frontal boundary we are
expecting post-frontal rain showers to continue through the
remainder of Thursday and into Friday. Drier conditions return for
Saturday. Lower confidence now moving toward this upcoming Sunday
with respect to the trough previously forecast to approach the
region. Temperatures look to lean below average and precipitation
above average heading into the 6-10 Day Outlooks from the Climate
Prediction Center.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 AM PST Tue Nov 11 2025

Widespread VFR lingers into the evening with overcast high clouds.
Expect light to moderate winds for the afternoon that will reduce
for most areas into the evening and into the night. Low CIGs form
along the coast in the evening and slowly move inland into the late
night. Breezy to gusty south and southeast winds build in the north
Bay and along the coast into Wednesday morning with spotty light
rain and drizzle. These winds will become widespread later into the
day ahead of a strong cold front. Expect moderate to at times heavy
rains and stronger winds later into Wednesday night.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR lasts into early Wednesday. Winds stay light
into the mid afternoon before becoming moderate and northwesterly
then southwesterly into the evening. Winds reduce into the night and
become light and variable. MVFR CIGS and southerly winds build into
Wednesday morning with stronger south winds building into that
afternoon along with spotty pre-frontal shower activity.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR lasts into the evening. Moderate
westerly winds build into the afternoon with overcast high clouds.
Winds reduce into the evening as IFR CIGs build around the bay and
fill the terminals into the night. Low cloud cover looks to erode
into the mid morning on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1105 AM PST Tue Nov 11 2025

Light to moderate winds last into Wednesday before a strong cold
front approaches the area. Winds before and along the front will
produce gales, including possibly storm force gusts over the
northern and inner coastal waters, while passing eastward across
the coastal waters and bays late Wednesday and early Thursday.
Heavy rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms will accompany the
cold front. Strong winds combined with a building NW swell will
generate hazardous seas across the waters. Winds will decrease
Friday, but the larger swell continues to build with seas up to 15
feet before diminishing through the weekend.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory from 10 PM Wednesday to 10 AM PST Thursday for
     CAZ006-502>506-508>510-512>518-528>530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Wednesday for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60
     NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM Wednesday to 9 AM PST Thursday for Mry
     Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-
     60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM PST Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Storm Warning from 9 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PST Thursday for Pt
     Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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