280
FXUS66 KMTR 081820
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1020 AM PST Sat Nov 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 108 AM PST Sat Nov 8 2025

 - Warming and drying trend through Monday

 - Tidally influenced coastal flooding and hazardous beach
   conditions continue today

 - Unsettled weather pattern returns middle of next week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 837 AM PST Sat Nov 8 2025

Patchy to areas of dense fog have been observed this morning in the
Sonoma Valley, around the San Francisco Bay and San Pablo Bay, and
in the southern Santa Clara Valley and Hollister Valley. Be sure to
allow for extra travel time and remember to use your low-beam
headlights this morning in areas of dense fog. Fog and low clouds
will dissipate throughout the morning and give way to mostly sunny
skies by this afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to warm into the
mid 70s to lower 80s across the interior and around the Santa Cruz
region, lower 70s near the coast, and upper 60s along the immediate
coastline. This is as offshore flow remains aloft which will allow
for the warmer temperatures across the region, some 5-12 degrees
above normal for this time of year.

RGass

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 108 AM PST Sat Nov 8 2025
(Today and tonight)

Satellite imagery reveals patches of stratus holding on in several
places across the region, notably the North Bay valleys and coast,
the southern San Mateo Peninsula coastline, parts of the Santa Clara
Valley, and interior San Benito County. These patches are in
defiance of the broader scale offshore flow that is observed across
the higher elevations, and while there is a chance for further
stratus expansion, those chances are decaying as the offshore flow
dries out the lower atmosphere. Recent rainfall and the generally
mild wind speeds will limit fire weather concerns. Low temperatures
this morning will hover in the upper 40s in valleys and wind
shielded areas, with lower to middle 50s expected everywhere else.
By the afternoon hours, the skies will clear out underneath the
influence of a building upper level ridge, with highs generally
around 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal averages, ranging from the
middle to upper 70s inland, the lower to middle 70s along the Bays,
and the middle 60s along the Pacific coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 108 AM PST Sat Nov 8 2025
(Sunday through Friday)

The ridge remains established through Sunday and Monday, enabling
further warming of the region with the highs reaching around 10 to
20 degrees above seasonal averages. The inland valleys reach the
upper 70s to middle 80s, while highs in the middle 70s to lower 80s
are forecast for the Bayside regions and the Pacific Coast reaches
the upper 60s to lower 70s. Overnight, the thermal belts remain
active through Tuesday morning, resulting in mild overnight lows and
offshore winds across the higher terrain.

The focus of the seven day forecast continues to be the shift
towards a more unsettled weather pattern in the middle of next week.
The ridge over the West Coast erodes and shifts towards the east,
allowing an upper level trough to build in the northeastern Pacific
and arrive across the West Coast beginning on Wednesday. The current
model consensus depicts the best chance for precipitation and the
most intense rain coming through the region late on Wednesday and
Thursday, followed by a period of lower chances of less intense
rain, potentially showery in nature, Friday and Saturday. There are
still several sources of uncertainty in regards to the forecast,
particularly in the rainfall totals and resultant downstream impacts
to flooding and landslide risk. For the period from 4 AM Wednesday
to 4 AM on Saturday the 15th, the NBM gives the following ranges for
25th to 75th percentile rainfall totals (that is, a 50% probability
that the eventual rainfall falls within this range): 1.2"-2.2" at
Sonoma County Airport and San Francisco International Airport, 0.8"-
1.6" at San Jose Airport, and 1"-2" at the Livermore Airport and
Monterey Regional Airport. Just to add that additional bit of
spiciness to the forecast, the NBM is also painting a 10-15% chance
of thunderstorms across the Bay Area and Central Coast on Thursday,
with K Index values of 30-35 degrees Celsius suggesting that
scattered thunderstorms are possible. We will continue to monitor
the evolution of the forecast as we head into the early part of next
week, particularly in case the rainfall totals start leaning towards
more impactful scenarios.

Beyond the 7 day outlook, ensemble model means are suggesting
another trough may develop somewhere around the Day 9-10 timeframe,
and the CPC outlook leans towards precipitation totals above
seasonal averages heading into the first week of December.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1019 AM PST Sat Nov 8 2025

Lingering cloud cover around the SF Bay erodes before noon, leading
to widespread VFR through the remainder of the TAF period Expect
moderate winds for the afternoon that will reduce for most areas
into the evening and into the night. Drainage winds and slight
easterly flow will affect sites such as LVK, HAF, APC, and SNS
overnight, offering moderate winds with some easterly components.
Winds look to stay light to moderate into Sunday afternoon with more
localized affects determining surface wind directions.

Vicinity of SFO...Becoming VFR before noon, then VFR through the
remainder of the TAF period. Winds stay light and variable into the
mid afternoon before becoming moderate and northwesterly. Winds
reduce into the night and become light and variable for Sunday
morning. Moderate northerly winds arrive into Sunday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Easterly winds
linger into the mid afternoon before west to northwest winds return.
These winds become light and variable into the evening. SNS will
experience moderate southeast drainage winds late tonight and through
Sunday morning. MRY keeps light winds, but these winds look to turn
more southerly into early Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 837 AM PST Sat Nov 8 2025

Seas continue to subside through the weekend and stay light
through the mid work week. The next storm will bring a fresh
southerly breeze Wednesday and rough seas to the coastal waters by
Thursday. Winds reduce into the next weekend but seas look to
stay rough into the week after.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ006-
     506-508-529-530.

PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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