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AGUS74 KWCO 221257
HMDNWC

National Hydrologic Discussion - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa AL
700 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025

Update...

Minor adjustments to the Limited selection in the Southern Plains into the
Ozarks were made for the potentially heavy rainfall forecast Sunday and
Monday. A slight shift in QPF placement overnight has caused some of the
southeastern basins of the selection to be removed. Additionally, the
heaviest rainfall forecasts are now located in basins northwest of
Dallas-Fort Worth, nearby Denton. River ensemble guidance is suggesting
minor to isolated moderate flooding remaining possible in the headwaters of
many of the eastern TX rivers. The southern CA and AZ selection is removed
from the morning issuance as much of that rainfall threat has diminished.

//JAC

Previous Discussion as follows

...Isolated flash, urban, and arroyo flooding possible from Southern
California into Arizona through the weekend ...Flash, urban, and small
stream flooding possible in portions of Southern Plains into the Ozarks
starting on Sunday... Flash flooding possible in American Samoa through
Saturday...

.Southern California into southern Arizona...
Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will impact the region and
continue to bring the threat of isolated flash and urban flooding impacts
through the weekend. Highest rainfall rates and totals will be in the
favorable upslope areas. Flash flooding and debris flows will also be
possible near recently burned areas.

.Southern Plains into the Ozarks...
The threat of flash, urban, and small stream flooding returns starting
Sunday as additional rainfall is forecast. River ensemble guidance (HEFS)
also indicates the possibility of isolated river flooding.

.American Samoa...
Flash flooding will be possible across the islands in response to heavy
rainfall.

//DPL

Additional National Water Center products are available at
www.weather.gov/owp/operations




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