042
AGUS74 KWCO 161527
HMDNWC

National Hydrologic Discussion - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa AL
1015 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025

.Synopsis...
Periods of isolated flooding possible this weekend into early next week for
the Lower Mississippi into the Great Lakes and in Puerto Rico...

.Lower Mississippi into the Great Lakes...
Periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall through early next week may
lead to isolated instances of flash and urban flooding this weekend across
portions of the region, particularly in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan
with forecast rainfall totals of 2 - 4". Antecedent conditions remain dry,
and the progressive nature of the event will help mitigate widespread
hydrologic responses. Much of the rainfall will be beneficial, due to the
aforementioned dry conditions, and is likely to impede any appreciable
overland flow that may materialize. Additionally, confidence remains low
regarding which areas may see hydrologic responses, if any, due to
uncertainties in the placement and magnitude of the QPF.

.Puerto Rico...
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue across the island through
the weekend into early next week which may bring an elevated risk of
flooding. While there is a low chance of flash flooding, some isolated
areas of urban and small stream flooding are possible. This area will be
monitored closely for updates over the weekend.

Additional National Water Center products are available at
www.weather.gov/owp/operations

This product will begin to be issued twice daily, with new issuance times,
beginning approximately 3 November 2025. The routine primary issuance time
of the product will be at 20 UTC, with routine daily updates to the
discussion being completed around 7 AM Central Time.

//JAC



$$