548
FXUS63 KOAX 022304
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
504 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy winds and warmth have been over-performing this
  afternoon with gusts of 25-35 mph and highs in the upper 50s
  to near 70 expected.

- Winds subside this evening with dry conditions expected. Lows
  will be in the mid 30s to near 40F.

- After a less windy Monday, dry and breezy weather is forecast
  for most of the week with highs in the 60s before trending
  cooler this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Today and Tomorrow:

A quiescent pattern laid across the Central Plains is featured
in water vapor imagery this afternoon, with two spinning
mid/upper lows -- one over the California Coast and the other
over the Tennessee River Valley. Strong high pressure to the
northwest and southeast sandwiches a handful of surface features
over the Central Plains, increasing the pressure gradient
locally to allow for gusty winds in the 25-35 mph out of the
south- southwest. Warmer temperatures have been allowed to
advance eastward, replacing yesterday`s cooler conditions and
setting the tone for the week as we continue to hold highs above
average for this time of year. Most of the forecast area is
poised to hit 60 degrees or above, with only slightly cooler
highs tomorrow afternoon brought by dry frontal passage that
will bring in some mid/high cloud coverage into the area. If you
have a few loose ends to take care of in terms of yard work or
taking down Halloween decorations, tomorrow afternoon will feel
like a peak fall day with docile winds.

Tuesday and Beyond:

Tuesday trends warmer as a mid/upper shortwave moves through
continued zonal flow aloft, which will strengthen a thermal ridge
over the High Plains that will help nudge temperatures into the
upper 60s to low 70s with southerly to southwesterly winds (similar
to today, but less windy and slightly warmer). That shortwave will
bring through another dry frontal passage that will knock highs back
down to the upper 50s to low 60s Wednesday. Model consensus points
to a wind back half of the forecast, with gusts of 20-30 mph lasting
into the weekend.

A deeper mid/upper shortwave and stronger front will sweep through
the area Thursday through Friday, but poor moisture return during
its passage over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa will thwart
meaningful rain chances in favor of IL/IN/MI where the surface
portion of that system will have deepened. The combination of
this system and a diving trough Saturday/Sunday will funnel
southward a Canadian airmass that give us a cool start to the
upcoming week with continued dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 504 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with
mainly a few passing high-level clouds. Gusty south winds
currently being observed at KOMA and KLNK will diminish within
the next hour. A weak front will move through the area overnight
with surface winds switching to northwest. LLWS is likely at
the time of the wind shift.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Mead