459
FXUS63 KOAX 101728
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1128 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Becoming much warmer this week with highs reaching the 60s to
  low 70s by Friday

- Dry through the workweek, then increasing precipitation
  chances this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Today and Tuesday:

Surface high pressure centered over the northern and central
Plains early this morning will build southeast through the area
today. The high pressure is associated with a cold,
continental-polar air mass with 2 AM temperatures in the teens
and 20s, and wind chills in the single digits and teens. The
air mass will undergo partial modification today with highs in
the mid 30s to low 40s. Some low clouds are present early this
morning along and east of the MO River. However, they should
dissipate prior to or shortly after daybreak with considerable
sunshine expected through the remainder of the day.

Tonight into Tuesday, a weak, mid-level impulse will track
through the northern Plains and mid-MO Valley in tandem with an
associated surface trough/weak front. Low-level warm advection
is forecast to develop ahead of the mid-level wave, supporting
an increase in clouds tonight into Tuesday morning. Clouds will
clear behind the surface front Tuesday afternoon with downslope
warming contributing to considerably warmer highs in the upper
50s to upper 60s.


Wednesday through Friday:

A mid-level ridge centered over the Rockies on Wednesday is
forecast to shift east into the Great Plains Thursday. Mid-level
heights begin to fall by Friday, downstream from a trough
moving through the Interior West. In the low levels, a lee
trough will deepen over the High Plains, with resultant
southerly winds drawing an increasingly warm and moist air mass
into the region, especially on Thursday and Friday. Highs in the
50s and 60s on Wednesday are expected to warm into the 60s
Thursday, and 60s to low 70s Friday.


This Weekend:

The 00z deterministic and ensemble mean numerical guidance
indicate the above-mentioned, mid-level trough moving into the
central U.S. However, differences exist in the handling of the
southern aspect of the trough in the form of a closed low
tracking through the south-central states. That variability in
the mid-level pattern translates to timing differences with
associated cold front moving through our area, and the
precipitation distribution along and ahead of the front.

This forecast update will indicate increasing precipitation
chances Saturday afternoon into Sunday with highs in the 50s and
60s Saturday cooling into the 40s by Sunday. This scenario could
change between now and then once the models come into better
agreement.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period with passing mid to
high level clouds and perhaps FEW to SCT clouds around 3000 ft
near and east of the Missouri River early in the period. South-
southwest winds should remain under 10 kts through this evening
before coming up a bit around 04-05Z, with some low level wind
shear (45-50 kt winds out of the southwest at 2000 ft agl).
Winds should remain below 12 kts through Tuesday morning and
become more westerly to northwesterly in the last few hours of
the period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...CA