271
FXUS63 KOAX 162331
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
531 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 20-50% chance of rain Monday, alongside breezy winds out of
  the southeast gusting to 20-35 mph.

- Another storm system will move into the region Thursday
  through Friday, bringing a 20-50% chance for rain and possibly
  some snow heading into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Today:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a compact mid/upper low
spinning into the Four Corners Region, amplifying ridging to its
east over the High Plains while northwesterly flow spills eastward
from there. Drilling down to the surface, recent hand analysis
places a warm front surface warm front just to the west of the
forecast area, extending from the northern Nebraska Panhandle to the
southeast towards north-central Kansas. With the forecast area being
near enough to that front and west of the high pressure to the east,
we`ve enjoyed light southeasterly winds and just enough sunshine to
make the temperatures in the 50s today feel just a touch warmer.
Those southeasterly winds are set to continue into the overnight
hours, and should help keep tonight warmer in the mid-toupper 30s
compared to the previous.

Monday and Beyond:

By early Monday, the aforementioned Four Corners low will have
ejected northeastward into the Wyoming/Colorado area, with a
surface low centered over extreme northwestern Kansas. Despite
the system generally deamplifying as it leaves the Rocky
Mountain front range, a potent warm air advective regime will
be set over the forecast area, quickly clouding the skies and
providing forcing for ascent to go with the falling mid-level
heights. The main snag that we will run into will be the wildly
varying low-level moisture profile. There is still considerable
spread in terms of how much dry the air will be in the low-
levels, but regardless of the model, initial echoes on radar
will fail to reach the ground initially -- gradually working
away the dryness for areas of northeast Nebraska and Iowa to
see around 0.05" of rain. Models continue to hold the warmer
thermal profile, with Nebraska struggling to see 850
temperatures below freezing, let alone having any realistic
chance to see any snow. Monday`s gust potential has held steady,
with gusts of 25-35 mph forecast underneath the cloud cover.
Rain chances generally begin by noon (10-20%), peak from 7p-12a
(25-40% chance), and taper off overnight and transitioning into
areas of drizzle.

By Tuesday, we`ll have the Monday system in the rear-view mirror
while the mid/upper pattern transitions the remaining ridge axis
over the area, limiting the amount of cooling behind the cold front.
Highs are expected to stay in the upper 40s to well into the 50s,
despite northerly winds. For the remainder of the work week, most of
the forcing for ascent will be focused south of the forecast area,
only glancing far southeast Nebraska late Thursday with our first
chance for meaningful precipitation arriving Friday as another
system pivots from the Intermountain West. Significant spread exists
by this point in regards to the weather system`s placement going
into the weekend, but ensemble members across the board do give us a
much better shot at seeing some accumulating snow compared to Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 531 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR conditions expected into Monday morning with passing mid
level clouds overnight. MVFR ceilings are expected to push in
from the west by late morning and overspread the area through
the afternoon, with ceilings of 2000-3000 ft. As these lower
clouds move in, could see a few light showers pass through.
Otherwise, winds will remain southeasterly, under 10 kts
overnight before picking up and gusting 20-25 kts Monday
morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...CA