091
FXUS63 KOAX 142302
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
602 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- On-and-off shower and thunderstorms chances (15-60% PoPs) into
  early next week. Best severe-weather potential currently
  appears to be Monday and Tuesday, with less chance on
  Saturday and Sunday.

- Clouds and scattered rainfall will help knock temperatures
  down into the lower to mid-80s by Tuesday.

- Chances are increasing for oppressive heat moving into the
  Central Plains late next week into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

An abridged upper-level analysis reveals broad messy ridging
stretching over the central CONUS. Closer scrutiny reveals a
couple of shortwaves in the central part of the country
including one near Valentine, NE and another in central KS
moving away from the Cornhusker state.

A stationary sfc front is draped along the SD/NE state line
that had produced some morning convection. Anticipate
convection to redevelop along this front later today.

It`s another toasty summer day; dewpoint temperatures are in
the upper sixties and air temps are in the upper-80s. It`s time
to bring the phrase "heat indices" back into regular use.
Temperatures should manage lower-90s this afternoon, their
potentials limited by the high clouds associated with a
shortwave moving through central Kansas.

.TONIGHT...

Convection across the area seems to be increasingly less likely
as the day proceeds. CAM guidance initiates convection near the
frontal boundary / 925 hP frontogenesis over the SD/NE border
and northeast Iowa this evening coincident with the H5
shortwave (you may have to squint to see it). Confidence is
higher in the Iowa convection where guidance has been consistent
and horizontal convective rolls have already been noted on GOES
16. Still, with widespread height rises across the area and
steep lapse rates, wouldn`t be surprised to see convection fire
along any point of the front.

A second opportunity for thunder/damaging winds/hail will hold
off for the possible remnants of expected convection of off the
Front Range area to work its way east. This storm cluster is
expected to develop into an MCS and guidance pushes it south of
the area. Pattern recognition would lend this solution
credence.

Overall, it seems our threat for any shower activity / severe
or otherwise, is on the decline. Have reduced PoPs as a result
with the highest numbers at about 30-40% between 00-03Z in the
northern-most tier of counties in northeast Nebraska.

.SUNDAY...

It`ll be hot, humid, and difficult to predict timing and
location of convection again. Like today, as the event has
approached, have backed off of PoPs a bit (20-40%) as
neighboring areas seem better favored for convective activity.
Areas to the south may be dealing with the convectively
overturned air of the prospective MCS and/or its outflow
boundaries. Another hot and humid boundary layer over western
Iowa and eastern Nebraska will lead to low level lapse rates
steep and DCAPE values of over 1 kJ/kg. This would leave any
sizable storm capable of producing hailstones over an inch or
some 60+ mph gusts.

.MONDAY...

Still hot... still humid. Confidence in rainfall and thunder
chances doubles for Monday and Tuesday as the stationary front
lingering to our north this weekend sags south in response to
the H5 ridge breaking down. Widespread forcing for ascent
requires likely PoPs along that front in the northern half of
the area. Progged kinematics suggest a linear mode to storm
development which would leave damaging winds as the primary
threat. A LLJ nosing in from Kansas may produce more activity
after dark.

.TUESDAY...

Tuesday`s weather looks the most dangerous in terms of the
severe threat but also a chance for a deluge of rain as the WPC
has the area highlighted with a "slight" (15%+) percent chance
of flash flooding at any given point.

The severe threat looks mostly confined to the southeastern
portion of the area... ahead of the cold front where hodographs
suggest powerful supercells/tornadoes are possible.

Considering we could see some rain tonight and Sunday... but
especially on Monday, antecedent soil conditions could be soggy.
Tuesday`s convection could bring localized areas multiple
inches of additional precip. With storm motion forecast to
nearly parallel to the front, training of storms will be a
concern. The areas of greatest concern will come into greater
focus over the next few days.

With the rain forecast, expect Tuesday`s temperatures to slip
closer to 80F... especially in the northern reaches of the CWA.

.THE REST OF THE WEEK...

Mostly dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the
forecast behind the early-week rain-maker. The only current
chance of precip is tied to a weak shortwave that brings
scattered PoPs to the northern half of the CWA on Thursday
night. We`ll see about that.

Otherwise, temperatures will start off in the lower-80s on
Wednesday and climb toward the end of the week. An amplified
trof develops over the West Coast leading to southwest flow over
the western CONUS and the country`s warmest warmest H8
temperatures stretched directly from Death Valley to Ord, NE.
At this point, mid-90s seem like a safe bet by next Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 601 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period with the best potential for shower and thunderstorm
development remaining to the north and east of the terminal
locations. South winds will persist at less than 12 kt.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Mead