


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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998 FXUS63 KOAX 122031 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 331 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front moving through the region will shift southerly winds to the northwest tonight and usher in cooler temperatures. - Daily chances for a few showers and rumbles of thunder will be possible across at least a portion of the area. - Expect a warm up Wednesday and Thursday before another system moves in, bringing cooler temps. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 326 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 A closed low is in place over Saskatchewan and Manitoba this afternoon with an attendant cold front extending south into Nebraska. A warm front is in place across western Iowa. The cold front has made it through O`Neill and Ord and is moving into eastern Nebraska. Expect highs today in the warm sector to reach into the mid-80s for most areas. Southerly winds will remain breezy through the afternoon. As the cold front passes through, expect a wind shift to the west before becoming northwesterly. A few showers and maybe an isolated rumble of thunder may be possible along the front. Monday starts off cool with temperatures in the 40s and 50s. Cooler, more seasonable air will be in place, with highs mainly in the 60s. A shortwave trough with some return flow moisture will move across the region in the afternoon, bringing a low but non-zero chance for a few showers. Tuesday temperatures remain cool, with the northern part of the area struggling into the mid to upper 50s. Another shortwave moves in bringing additional low-end PoPs to the area. Wednesday, the pattern shifts with a ridge building over Iowa and Minnesota and a deepening trough to the west of the Four Corners. Warmer temperatures are in the forecast, with temperatures rebounding into the 70s for many areas. A few low 80s may be possible for areas along the Kansas-Nebraska border. Showers may be possible in some locations. Heading into Thursday, the trough shifts east over the Central High Plains. Models are showing the potential for a closed low to develop and move across the Dakotas and Canada while the trough lifts to the northeast, into the forecast area. After afternoon highs in the 70s and 80s on Thursday, another cool down ensues for Friday into the weekend. There will be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms with Thursday showing the best chances (20-50%). && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 VFR conditions prevail at the terminals through the forecast period. Skies are clearing out in the east with additional cloud cover moving in from the west with a cold front. The front will move into the vicinity of the terminals later this afternoon/evening, bringing a wind shift and the possibility of a few showers and rumbles of thunder. Confidence in timing is low at this time, so shower/storm mentions have been omitted from prevailing conditions. Once the front moves through, expect winds out of the north through the remainder of the period. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ANW AVIATION...ANW