406
FXUS63 KOAX 161728
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1128 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect a cooler Sunday, with above normal temperatures
  rounding out the weekend.

- 20-50% chance of rain Monday, alongside breezy winds out of
  the southeast gusting to 20-35 mph.

- Another storm system will move into the region Thursday
  through Friday, bringing a 20-50% chance for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Today...

A surface high shifted from the Dakotas into western Minnesota and
Iowa overnight, bringing light winds and temperatures in the 30s and
40s by 2 AM. High pressure will continue to slide east today, as a
low pressure system pushes into the Rockies, with dry conditions
prevailing over the forecast area. Highs will top out in the mid to
upper 50s this afternoon.

Monday and Tuesday...

The Rocky Mountain low will gradually weaken as it continues to push
east Monday. Strong warm air advection ahead of this system will
lead to the development of showers by Monday afternoon. While
precipitation will likely struggle through a dry layer to reach the
surface initially, there remains a 20-50% chance that saturation
will prevail by Monday afternoon and evening, with QPF totals
generally under 0.10" expected. Model solutions remain in agreement
that the low will track far enough to the north to preclude any snow
chances. Winds still look to be breezy ahead of the approaching low,
with southerly gusts up to 20-35 mph possible Monday.

Winds will weaken by early Tuesday morning, as they turn to the
north behind the passing cold front. A few sprinkles could persist
into the early morning hours on the back side of the low, however a
dry forecast is expected to prevail for the vast majority of the
region Tuesday. Temperatures will range from around 50 degrees over
northeast Nebraska to 60 degrees over southeast Nebraska and
southwest Iowa both Monday and Tuesday. Overnight lows will hover
just above freezing, in the mid to upper 30s each night.

Wednesday and Beyond...

A more active pattern looks to impact the region Wednesday through
the upcoming weekend as a trough moves across the inter-mountain
west and into the Great Plains. Rain looks probable Thursday through
Friday. There is a small chance for cold air to wrap in behind the
system by the weekend, bringing the potential for wintry
precipitation, but chances appear to be low at this time.
Temperatures will remain in the 50s through Thursday, with the upper
40s possible on Friday. Lows will stay a couple of degrees above
freezing for most locations, with colder nights possible by next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period, with nearly
unidirectional winds over the next 24 hours out of the
southeast. Speeds this afternoon will generally increase to
around 10 kts or just below, holding steady overnight before
increasing after 13z with gusts to 20-25 kts arriving to all
three TAF sites by 14/15z. Increasing low-level cloud cover will
arrive with the gusts, with quite a bit of spread in timing of
MVFR conditions just beyond the current TAF period ending at
18z. At the moment, the forecast is more optimistic ceiling-
wise, with potential that MVFR conditions could move in by 16/17
tomorrow morning at KOFK/KLNK.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...Petersen