566
FXUS63 KOAX 220504
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1204 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More storms may develop west of a Neligh to Wahoo to Nemaha
  line (20-40% chance) after midnight.

- Storms clear late Saturday morning leaving a pleasant day.

- Periodic storm chances continue into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Hey, I did sfc analysis by hand tonight! It reveals a stalled
front draped from near Clarinda, through the Omaha metro, to
Albion and continuing west.

Widely isolated showers continue across the area this evening,
but severe weather never did materialize here despite the
conditional threat earlier today. The atmosphere had the
buoyancy and shear available, but due to cloud cover,
initiation didn`t happen in Nebraska. A few light showers
lingered past sunset in far southwest Iowa along an elevated
front.

Expect the mostly dry conditions may be interrupted by
redevelopment around 2:00 AM as a H5 shortwave pushes southeast
through central Nebraska. Elevated CAPE peaks only at about
1,000 J/kg and effective shear values will be nerfed after the
subtraction of the boundary layer (50 kts end up closer to 25
knots). The LLJ is weak and pointed farther west than usual.

The 22Z SSCRAM suggests less than a 5% chance of severe hail or
wind overnight. That might be a little low, but it`s got the
right idea. Have PoPs peaking near 30% at 6am in the SW 1/4th of
the CWA before wrapping up by 9AM. Omaha, Norfolk, and points
north and east should remain dry.

.SATURDAY...

The remainder of Saturday will be dry with sunny skies by noon.
As the sfc pressure axis pushes through, light northerly winds
will slowly become easterly by midnight. It`ll be a great day
to get some yard work done. Darn it.

.SUNDAY...

PoPs 45% (west) return on Sunday with a shortwave rounding the
H5 ridge. Most will remain dry, but with the associated cloud
cover, temps will slip by about 5 degrees. PoPs 40% (south) to
70% (north) climb higher after midnight, when 00Z guidance
suggests a convective complex pushes through SD in the evening
and into eastern Nebraska / western Iowa before sunrise Monday
morning.

.NEXT WEEK...

The busy pattern continues. To date, OAX has issued its fourth
most t-storm warnings this year (PoR 1986).

Transient ridging ahead of a cutoff low traversing the Prairie
provinces allows temps to climb a bit for Monday and Tuesday.
That low`s attendant cold front pushes through on Tuesday
afternoon. This will bring another 40% chance of overnight
thunderstorms thanks to the stalled front and isentropic upglide
provided by the LLJ.

12Z global models suggest regular chance of precip and thunder
through the work week as the area remains on the periphery of
the southern high pressure dome. Looking for some change to hang
your hopes on? All three deterministic global models develop
zonal flow by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

VFR conditions prevail at the TAF sites through the forecast
period. Expect light and variable winds through the period.
There is a 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm developing and
moving through southeastern Nebraska tonight, potentially
impacting KLNK between 09Z and 11Z. Once showers and storms move
out Saturday morning, expect quieter weather through early
Sunday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...ANW