985
FXUS63 KOAX 051116
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
516 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect some slick roads Saturday into early Sunday as some
  snow moves through. The highest potential for at least 1" will
  be northeast of a Norfolk to Omaha line (30-60% chance).

- High temperatures over the next week will generally be in the
  30s and 40s, but Sunday will be colder, with highs in the
  teens to mid 20s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 500 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Temperatures are primarily in the 20s this morning, with the
thermometer at the office here slowly climbing since 7pm. Temps
had nowhere to go but up as Omaha`s high of 21F was the coldest
recorded since February. Many locations hit Thursday`s high
temp mark in the day`s final few minutes.

Temps are expected to continue climbing until hitting their
zenith above freezing this afternoon as warm air continues to
build in behind the warm front lifting northwest into Minnesota.
A sfc trof / wind shift will sweep in behind the departing warm
front and guidance tries its best to produce some weak radar
returns. Forecast soundings suggest it will be hard to get any
hydrometeors to the ground with minimal lift and no saturation
in the DGZ. If precip does fall, believe most likely type to be
drizzle, but a flurry/sprinkle is possible, too with temps and
wet bulb temperatures near freezing in the afternoon... just as
the perturbation pushes through the forecast area. Have
maintained 10% PoPs over the northern half of the CWA from about
18Z to 0Z... but kept mention of any precip out of the grids.

.SATURDAY...

A better chance of precipitation is tied to a stronger system
approaching the Pacific coast of Canada. As the shortwave
approaches, it will develop a lee surface low in Wyoming and
eventually drive it through far northeast Kansas, pulling a
cold front through Omaha mid- day Saturday. Snow will begin in
the northern reaches of the area before lunch on Saturday. As
the features of the system are being better defined and its
bounds better established, confidence in its track is growing.

This has resulted in a tighter gradient in the snow forecast...
leaving totals along the SD state line / northern Iowa nearly
unchanged (1-4"), but areas just south of there progged to
receive a bit less than earlier forecasts. Part of the reason
for this is the increased confidence in the northern track
favored by the EC, but it`s looking increasingly likely that
some of the precip along and/or south of I-80 will not fall as
snow. In fact, rain is more likely than snow along the KS state
line. The tier of counties along I-80 may see temps warm enough
to start off as rain and cool just enough for a few flakes to
fall as the precip ends around midnight Saturday night. In fact,
the current forecast has less than an inch of snow *fall* (not
snow *accumulation*) for areas south of Norfolk and Omaha. Of
course, if wet surfaces freeze on Saturday night, the lack of
snow won`t necessarily mean easy travel.

All guidance keeps the highest amounts of snow northeast of the
area where winter weather advisories and winter storm watches
have been issued. Current forecast has 2-4" of snow forecast for
Monona and Shelby Counties and a winter weather advisory may be
eventually issued for there if confidence grows. Minor travel
impacts are most likely (60-90%) just north and east of a line
from Des Moines to Sioux City where the HREF suggests a threat
of snowfall rates of 1" an hour. Accumulations there may push
4-7".

.SUNDAY...

Behind the departing system, temps plunge into the teens and
single digits by Sunday morning and Sunday`s highs will be about
10-15 degrees cooler than the day before. Sunday night will be
colder yet as wind chills dip as cold as -15F.

.NEXT WEEK...

Temps begin to moderate on Monday and Tuesday, with Tuesday`s
low 40s being the closest we`ve been to climatological norms in
quite a spell (November 25). A shortwave pushes through the
central CONUS on Tuesday night, bringing a chance of precip to
the area, especially northeast of Omaha. Current PoPs hold at
about 20%, but being on the southern edge of the system and it
being the warmest day of the month so far... we may be answering
more questions about p-type.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 514 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with clouds
building in from the northwest at FL075 this morning. Expect
southwesterly winds to become northwesterly by mid-day. Isolated
flurries/sprinkles/and drizzle are possible at KOFK and KOMA
this afternoon and evening, but chances are low (10%) enough to
leave off the TAF forecasts for now.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Nicolaisen