522
FXUS63 KOAX 210511
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1211 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and drizzle persist for most of Monday, with the
  highest chances for showers (50-70%) largely confined to
  northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa. Cool today in the
  50s and 60s.

- Dry conditions expected Tuesday with highs in the 60s and
  lingering low clouds.

- Temperatures in the 60s persist through Friday before warming
  to the 70s next weekend. More chances (50-70%) for rain return
  by the second half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

0436z GOES-19 nighttime microphysics reveals an expansive area
of stratus over the forecast area. In addition to widely
scattered rain showers, drizzle is ongoing over a vast majority
of the forecast area, as indicated from the various METAR
observations.

The vort max and H5 wave will pivot across the area this morning and
throughout most of the day today. Persistent weak low level omega
seen from forecast soundings and cross-sections should keep the
drizzle/shower activity in place too making for a dreary start
to the week. The best chance to see showers will still be
confined to northeast Nebraska into west-central Iowa this
morning into the early afternoon as PoPs remain in the 50-70%
range there. Highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s are forecast for
most locations. The bulk of activity should come to an end late
Monday night into early Tuesday morning as sfc high pressure
gradually moves in from the northeast.

For the rest of Tuesday, the sfc high should help keep things dry
and quiet, although the low level stratus will likely linger through
most of the day. Highs only warm though to the 60s keeping it cool.
Expect a cool Tuesday night too as lows reach the upper 40s to low
50s.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Warm advection returns for most of the Central Plains areas
Wednesday as the H8 high pushes off to the east. This may help force
some scattered showers (30-50%) Wednesday morning, particularly over
northeast Nebraska. By then, the H5 pattern shows predominately
southwest flow in our area as ridging takes place over the southern
CONUS. This should allow for continued shortwave trofs to ride said
flow, and when paired with the H8 warm advection, will see more
chances for showers and some storms. Thursday, early Friday, and
early Saturday appear to have the best chances (50-70%) at us seeing
wetting precip areawide. Chances somewhat decrease by Sunday but
with several subtleties noted per model guidance at that point.

Temperatures remain in the cool side through Friday with highs in
the 60s. There is some indication we warm up to the low to mid
70s though toward the tail end of the long term period as some
H5 ridging builds over most of the central and southern CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Largely IFR ceilings are in place across the area with a few
pockets in MVFR territory near KOFK and LIFR territory at KLNK
to make the forecast tricky -- the general idea being that ceilings
of FL006-FL008 become increasingly widespread with intermittent
visibility reductions to 3-5 SM as areas of drizzle/mist move
through. North-northeasterly winds will continue to be light
across the area at less than 10 kts, and we`ll see ceilings
improve into MVFR territory tomorrow afternoon, and then turn
back to IFR after 00z tomorrow evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Petersen