555
FXUS63 KOAX 160509
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1209 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 15-40% Severe storms and 5-30% heavy rain potential Monday
  and Tuesday, possibly lingering into Wednesday extreme
  southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa.

- 50-75% chance for oppressive heat overspreading the central
  plains Friday and persisting through the weekend, with heat
  indices expected to reach at least 100 degrees.

- Cooler temperatures in the lower 80s both Tuesday and
  Wednesday as a front moves into the area, accompanied by
  scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Mid-afternoon Sunday characterized by warm and muggy conditions.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms that persisted across
portions of northeast Nebraska and northwest Iowa this morning
have dissipated, as better dynamic forcing moves into Minnesota.
A decent theta-e surface maximum extends from northwest Missouri
across western Iowa into southeast South Dakota, thus cannot
discount isolated thunderstorm development east of the Missouri
River late afternoon into early evening due to a combination of
dynamic and diabatic forcing. Stronger wind field exists from
700-500mb, with weaker wind field at low and upper levels. Thus,
perhaps enough mid-level rotation to enhance updraft; however,
not ideal so not too bullish on large hail, but DCAPE 800-1000
may produce strong wind gusts. Expect any storms that develop to
dissipate by 02z.

Tonight: Presently, early signs of isolated lee slope convection
that will grow upscale into a MCS across the western high
plains where both kinematic and dynamic forcing will help to
sustain. As complex moves into central Nebraska, expect complex
to become less potent due to weaker kinematics and drier low-
levels. Far west-central and southwest part of the forecast area
may see remnants of the complex move into the area after 08z,
but not expecting severe threat to have ended, but still may
need to be mindful of strong winds as storms collapse.
Temperatures overnight will remain on the warm side, in the
upper 60s and lower 70s.

Monday: Mid-level vort-max moving across the northern plains,
will push a cold front into the area late in the day. But, not
soon enough to impact temperatures, with H9 and H8 thermal ridge
bi-secting the forecast area. Expect max temperatures to be a
few degrees warmer than today, with lower 90s in most areas.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in a narrow
ribbon of greater theta-e along the front aided by modest
dynamic forcing as a speed max H5-H3 moves across South Dakota
and the right exit area of H3 ULJ that will arc from lower
Rockies into southern plains. The latter kinematic forcing
likely driving most intense storms across southwest portion of
CWA. Damaging winds again appears the most significant threat.

Tuesday: Aforementioned front is driven into southern part of
CWA early and lingering along and south of the Kansas border.
Isentropic ascent will continue to advect moisture northward and
allow for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Late
in the day, better dynamic forcing arrives as a compact vort
max moves across Kansas, increasing coverage and intensity of
storms. Better severe threat will exist across southeast
Nebraska and southwest Iowa. In addition to severe threat, will
have to monitor the axis of best IVT. EC/GEFS has the better
axis across eastern Kansas into northwest MO; however, a slight
shift north could set up better excessive rainfall potential for
extreme southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. WPC has area in
slight risk for excessive rainfall, and that appears reasonable
until location of effective boundary becomes more clear.
Temperatures on Tuesday will be cooler, with highs in the lower
80s.

Wednesday and Thursday: Cooler temperatures will linger into
Wednesday, with highs only reaching around 80. Upper riding will
mitigate precipitation chances. Little or no precipitation
chances linger into Thursday, though temperatures will begin to
ramp back into the 90s as upper ridge axis moves into Central
Plains.

Friday through Sunday: Very warm conditions expected Friday and
Saturday with 580-588dm ridge parked over central plains. Low
level thermal ridge at H8 of 24-30C indicates temperatures will
push well into the 90s, with even 100s possible, especially
Friday. Large scale IVT transport on Saturday may mitigate
warm-up somewhat on Saturday. But, though temperatures may not
be as warm, greater atmospheric moisture will make conditions
muggier. Heat headlines appear likely later in the week based on
the this scenario.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

VFR conditions continue for the start of this TAF cycle. Do see
some mid to high level cloudiness across eastern Nebraska
ahead of a decaying squall line currently over central
Nebraska. May see a weak shower impact KOFK after 9 or 10z, but
confidence on this occurring is very low so have not included
mentions. LLWS will impact KOFK through at least 13z as the 850
mb low level jet ramps up across central into northeast
Nebraska early this morning.

Will see a line of scattered showers and storms develop Monday
after 22z over northeast Nebraska and eventually progress
southeastward during the evening hours. For this TAF issuance,
confidence was high enough at KOFK to include -TSRA mentions
with a switchover to -SHRA late in the period. However, expect
further refinements to the timing in the upcoming issuances.
Confidence on impacts at KOMA and KLNK remains somewhat low for
this issuance given lots of model spread seen on shower and
thunderstorm placement farther south. Mentions at these two
terminals are likely for upcoming issuances.

Lastly, winds may be breezy at times from the south southeast
after 16z, gusting to 20-25 kts before subsiding after 22z-00z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fortin
AVIATION...Castillo