193
FXUS63 KOAX 160536
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1236 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cluster of thunderstorms is expected to Kansas and Nebraska
  overnight, reaching eastern Nebraska/western Iowa after 2am.
  Thunderstorms may produce some gusty winds and heavy rainfall,
  with isolated hail possible.

- Monday and Tuesday bring additional chances for strong to
  severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.

- A shift in the weather pattern Wednesday through Friday brings
  some slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

The forecast period begins with high pressure over the Gulf Coast
states and up into Arkansas. A upper ridge remains over the Great
Plains and a shortwave trough is over the Central High Plains. A
cold front continues to drop south through eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa.

Showers and thunderstorms have developed this evening across eastern
Colorado and western Kansas. Models have the storms currently in
southwestern Kansas lifting northeast while the Colorado storms move
east. After 2am, models have storms moving into northeastern Kansas
and possibly into extreme southeastern Nebraska. There is still some
uncertainty in how far north storms would potentially be able to get
with some models showing storms reaching as far north as Fremont and
Norfolk, while others keep things dry north of I-80. The HRRR has
deviated its expected track of these storms a little further north
the past few runs, putting the northern edge closer to the I-80
corridor which seems a reasonable solution. Precipitable water
values approaching or exceeding 2.0" will be possible. Some gusty
winds and heavy rainfall will be possible with these storms.
Isolated hail cannot be entirely ruled out. There is a small chance
for some patchy fog developing overnight, particularly for areas
north of the front; however northwesterly to north-northwesterly
winds may not be as conducive for it.

Showers/storms will taper off west to east Sunday morning. Expect
some slightly cooler temperatures as the front continues to push
through the region. Highs will range from the upper 70s to mid-80s.
Drier conditions are expected heading into the afternoon and skies
are expected to clear out. Some hazy skies might be visible as
wildfire smoke from the PACNW and Canada filters in with north to
north-northwest winds expected.

Monday, a ridge sets up over the western CONUS with northwest flow
over the Great Plains. Temperatures warm slightly, returning to the
low to mid-80s for most areas during the afternoon. An upper low
will be moving across Manitoba and Saskatchewan while a shortwave
trough is expected to move through the Great Plains. Showers and
storms, a few of which could become strong to severe are expected
Monday afternoon/evening.

Tuesday brings some slightly cooler temperatures to northeastern
Nebraska/northwestern Iowa as a cold front slides in from the north.
Currently, the forecast has highs in the upper 70s to mid-80s for
areas along and north of I-80. Areas toward the Kansas/Nebraska
border will be in the mid to upper 80s. Tuesday afternoon and
evening will bring a chance for some strong to severe thunderstorms
across the region.

Wednesday through Friday, the ridge amplifies over the western CONUS
and a series of shortwaves move across the Great Plains. There will
be a few hit or miss chances for a shower or storm through this
timeframe. Cooler temps (70s and 80s for highs) are expected through
the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

VFR conditions favored through the period, but a few things to
keep an eye one. First, could see some fog development across
western IA overnight, but latest guidance suggests it stays east
of OMA. Next, ongoing storms across northern KS are expected to
move into the area, but guidance remains in decent agreement
that it mostly dissipates prior to reaching the TAF sites,
though still a 15-20% chance of TS at LNK and OMA. Finally,
expect some scattered clouds around 2000-3000 ft by late morning
into the afternoon. Otherwise, winds will remain northwesterly
to norther and mostly under 10 kts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...CA