421
FXUS63 KOAX 240444
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1144 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight into
  Monday morning. Severe weather is not expected.

- Clouds and rain chances will keep temperatures cooler Monday,
  with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.

- Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances continue into the
  work week, with high temperatures generally in the low to mid
  80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

The upper pattern revealed by water vapor imagery is dominated
by the persistent ridge centered over west Texas and a deep
cut- off low spinning cyclonically over the Great Lakes.
Betwixt the two, Iowa and Nebraska are under northwest flow
aloft.

Radar returns this evening have been slowly tapering as they`ve
drifted southeast into a drier and more stable airmass. Temps
and dewpoints are in the 60s as winds have become light and
variable. It`s a little muggy but pleasant outside. This would
be a good set-up for fog, but for the increasing clouds
expected overnight. Any development should be patchy at best.

More showers and storms are expected to develop soon as the
nocturnal jet gets act together. The jet will reach farther
north than normal, likely initiating the storms in South Dakota.
These storms are progged to push south-southeast overnight,
passing through the Yankton/Sioux City area around 5am (60%
PoPs), and through Omaha around 9am (35% PoPs) as odds fade. The
area should be dry by lunch.

Again, it`ll be a bit cloudier than typical, leaving highs
ranging form the upper 70s to mid-80s.

Monday night should be dry.

.TUESDAY...

Tuesday will be warmer with southerly flow picking up the pace
ahead of an approaching cold front / shortwave. Expect highs
entirely in the 80s. The cold front is tied to a system just
north of the Canadian border leaving best forcing for ascent
across Minnesota and points north. There will also be increased
severe odds west of here tied to a shortwave.

Our best chances of thunder is tied to the unstable airmass that
develops as humidity streams north in the increasing heat. PWAT
values will be above the 90th percentile (NAEFS). However, PoPs
have been almost cut in half over the past 48 hours (70% ->
40%). Some heavy rain is possible, but ensemble guidance now has
best odds of 1" or more west of this CWA. That`s where the
excessive rainfall outlook (ERO by WPC) is currently lit up.
(Category 1 of 4).

.WEDNESDAY...

The last of Tuesday`s showers should be wrapped up by sunrise
Wednesday and it`s the only day of the forecast currently
forecast to be completely precip free. That seems unlikely to
change with a sfc high passing through.

.THE REST OF THE FORECAST...

The upper pattern remains mostly unchanged through the work
week before zonal flow sets up early next week. We`ll remain in
the path of a continued parade of waves rounding the southern
ridge. PoPs return to the forecast late on Thursday (20%) and
continue daily into next week. Friday`s chances are best
(30-60%).

As a result, temps should slowly climb over the course of the
work week`s second half, with some 90s popping up on the map by
Saturday. The first five days of September are highlighted by
the CPC as having a 20-40% risk of extreme heat (90th+
percentile). The heat is expected to linger. The 6-10 day
outlook leans hot, the 8-14 day outlook leans warmer than
normal, as does the forecast for "weeks 3-4" (9/5-9/18).

2026 is on track to be the fifth warmest on record at Omaha and
September looks to keep pace.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Ceilings decrease over the next few hours as thunderstorms in
South Dakota move southeast into the region. Storms may start
impacting KOFK around 09Z, and gradually move further southeast,
impacting KLNK and KOMA after 12Z. Could have some visibility
reductions as storms move through the area. Ceilings improve at
KOFK after 12Z and at KLNK and KOMA after 15Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...ANW