626
FXUS63 KOAX 090443
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1143 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Regular chances of thunderstorms continue each day through the
  forecast. Late Wednesday night and late Thursday night bring
  the best chances (40-70%).

- Strong to severe storms are possible over the next several
  days. The primary hazards are damaging winds and hail.

- Wildfire smoke continues to move overhead from the northwest.
  Most of this smoke remains high in the atmosphere, with only a
  small amount reaching the surface.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Today`s high temps fell shy of expectations as convection
lingered longer than anticipated. Many thermometers northwest of
the Omaha metro fell shy of 80F. The last of the showers and
thunderstorms dissipated and pushed into central Iowa this
evening. They generally remained just under severe criteria,
although we did get a handful of reports of 1" hail / 60+ gusts.
The quiet didn`t last long, as more convection has since
developed.

Surface analysis reveals a warm front draped along the KS/NE state
line. SPC mesoanalysis has highlighted a persistent instability
gradient draped northwest to southeast across this CWA. Satellite
imagery reminds us that Canadian wildfire smoke hangs heavy over the
CWA (and a majority of the CONUS!) The upper pattern shows a
dampened ridge over the Desert Southwest and shortwave pushing out
of southeast Nebraska in the quasi-zonal flow north of that ridge.

Elevated thunderstorms have redeveloped in western Iowa and may
expand into the southern tier of counties of eastern Nebraska
after midnight when the LLJ pushes right into that stalled
front. Most storms should fall shy of severe criteria as the
shear will be mostly below the inversion but there will be
plenty of elevated instability (2500 J/kg) creating lots of
lighting, thunder, heavy rain, and small hail. The chance of
precip at Omaha and Lincoln are below 15%. Convection should be
east of the area by 10am.

.SUNDAY...

The remainder of Sunday should remain dry with the next chance of
showers and storms waiting for the possible approach of another MCV.
Some guidance has a cluster of storms in central South Dakota
clipping far northeastern Nebraska / northern Iowa by early Monday
morning. The likelihood of that coming to fruition and actually
bringing severe weather seems low this far out, but the SPC does
have our area highlighted in a "marginal" threat of severe
weather (5%+) (category 1 of 5). This would affect
Nebraska/Iowa early Monday morning.

Monday, beyond a 10-15% chance of convection before sunrise,
should be mostly dry. Temps should begin within a stone`s throw
of 70F and hit a maximum either in the upper 80s or lower 90s.
More convection is possible late Monday night, too (15-25%).
This also looks to be tied to the isentropic upglide (WAA)
produced by the LLJ and that front that`s still expected to be
hung up along Husker/Jayhawk battle lines.

.THE REST OF THE WEEK...MORE OF THE SAME...

The remainder of the forecast remains unsettled with regular
opportunities for showers and thunder. Mesoscale features could
bring afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but best chances continue
to wait for the nocturnal setup of the moist boundary layer lift
provided by the Great Plains LLJ. Tuesday night`s chances sit at 20-
40%. Machine learning algorithms suggest a 15%+ chance of severe
weather.

Wednesday night`s chances are the best of the week at 50-75%
as a sfc low ejects northeast out of the Rockies. This is the day
that the WPC highlights a 5%+ chance of flash flooding. NBM QMD
probabilities suggest a 50% chance of 1" of QPF from 00Z Thursday to
00Z Friday in the Omaha metro area (less elsewhere). Thursday
and Friday`s PoPs aren`t far behind those "likely`s" of
Wednesday night.

With the extra cloud cover and possible shower activity, temps will
slip to near normal on Wednesday and cooler yet (70s) on Thursday,
Friday, and into the weekend. Maybe the cooler weather is what you
need to get in the mood for "back to school" sales or setting up
your fantasy football draft. The WPC is on board with the NBM`s
prognostication, leaving the area leaning cooler and wetter
than normal in its 6-10 day outlooks (8/14- 8/18).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Primary concern of overnight TAFs is the threat of TSRA at
KOMA. Have not included it in the 06Z issuance, but with the
storms back-building, that may need to be changed rather
quickly. Otherwise, the forecast will be based on winds only.
Strong winds at FL017 are developing. Expect 40-45 knot winds
out of the south while sfc winds are closer to 5-10 knots.

Sfc winds will be out of the southwest to start Sunday,
becoming southeasterly in the afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Nicolaisen