671
FXUS64 KOHX 311301
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
801 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 800 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

- Rain moving out with quiet weather through Tuesday.

- Severe storm risk Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night with
  damaging winds, tornadoes, large hail, and flash flooding all
  possible. Severe storm risk may linger into Thursday.

- Flooding possible mid to late week with a series of weather
  systems impacting the area. The flooding could become
  significant with some areas possibly exceeding 6 inches of
  rainfall.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 800 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

The severe wx threat is done for Middle Tennessee for today. As
of 8 AM CDT, widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms
continued for the southeast half of our area. Rainfall rates are
heavy enough for some ponding on roads and in low lying areas
through the next hour or 2, but no major flooding is expected at
this time.

by lunchtime, the main batch of rain will be gone, but a few scattered
showers will linger east of I-65. The west half of the area will
be dry with some breaks beginning to develop in the clouds. The
drying and clearing with a frontal passage will continue to work
eastward across the area through the afternoon into the evening.
Highs today will be in the 60s which is cooler than it has been
recently, but actually near normal.

Clearing and chilly tonight, then mainly sunny and pleasant
Tuesday.

On Wednesday, active conditions kick in again. Gusty south winds
will send temps soaring to near record level, then we will have
another shot at severe thunderstorms. Enjoy the break later today
and Tuesday while you can!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 902 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

A tornado watch is currently in effect for most of Middle
Tennessee west of the Cumberland Plateau. A line of storms has
crossed into our northwest counties, and everything seems to be
consistent with what was forecast earlier regarding timing and
impacts. The storms have formed just ahead of a cold front that
will come through the mid state later tonight and early Monday.
Rain and storm chances will linger into the Monday, but we do not
expect any severe impacts beyond 12Z. Obviously, cooler air will
fill in behind the front. Tomorrow`s max temps will only be in the
60s, and several spots will drop into the 30s tomorrow night,
although freezing temps appear unlikely. Temps will make a nice
recovery on Tuesday as ridge of high pressure slides across the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 902 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Wednesday and Wednesday night will bring our next storm chances,
and it already appears that Middle Tennessee is in for more severe
weather with this next active weather system. The SPC currently
has all of Middle Tennessee in a 15% hatched area for day 4, with
a 30% hatched are covering roughly the northwest 1/3 of the mid
state. But this is just the opening salvo. This boundary is likely
to become quasi-stationary just to the northwest of Middle
Tennessee and will allow a series of waves to train through the
region so that some hefty rainfall totals look to build up which
very well may lead to flooding. While it isn`t apparent that a
significant severe threat will persist beyond Wednesday night,
there will be an ongoing flooding threat. At this time, QPF totals
from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday range from maybe 1.5"
along the Cumberland Plateau, to around 4" for Nashville Metro, to
7+ inches around Clarksville and Land-between-the-Lakes -- areas
that have already been heavily impacted by significant rainfall
during the past several weeks. Even larger QPF totals are showing
up further upstream. Should the aforementioned boundary shift a
little to the east, it could have serious consequences for an even
larger portion of Middle Tennessee.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Showers and thunderstorms continue to track through our southern
half of the CWA including MQY/SRB/CSV. Activity decreases through
the afternoon as the front pushes on through. Winds shift to the
NW with associated frontal passage and become gusty around 15
kts at the surface. CIGs range from VFR to MVFR with some pockets
of IFR this morning. Lower CIGs are present behind the main line
of storms. In general, widespread MVFR conditions look favorable
across the CWA today before improving back to VFR through the
evening and overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      66  42  70  59 /  50   0   0   0
Clarksville    61  39  67  57 /  10   0   0  10
Crossville     66  37  66  51 / 100   0   0   0
Columbia       67  38  71  57 /  70   0   0   0
Cookeville     65  37  69  54 / 100   0   0   0
Jamestown      66  36  67  51 / 100   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   67  38  71  57 / 100   0  10   0
Murfreesboro   67  37  71  56 /  90   0   0   0
Waverly        62  38  69  57 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......13
SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Cravens