100
FXUS64 KOHX 272318
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
618 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 614 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

- The heat advisory will expire at 7 PM tonight.

- A few strong thunderstorms will be possible today with damaging
  winds and flash flooding being the primary threats.

- Rain and storm chances will continue through the middle of next
  week with an overall low severe threat.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 606 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Shower and storm coverage has decreased over the last couple of
hours but some storms are ongoing on the plateau. CAMs keep the
overnight hours pretty dry. Look for some patchy fog after
midnight in some of the areas that received rainfall today.
Tomorrow looks like it will be pretty similar to today with fairly
widespread thunderstorm coverage in the afternoon. The Heat
Advisory will be allowed to expire at 00z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

With an unstable atmosphere already in place, storms are starting to
develop in southern middle Tennessee. The severe threat is low with
lapse rates and shear being insufficient. A model sounding shows
PWATs high at 1.84in and a healthy amount of CAPE and DCAPE which
supports the biggest threat today being gusty winds (45-65mph)
and heavy downpours. Some areas where storms are frequent could
experience localized flooding in low lying areas. Storms diminish
into the evening and storm chances return tomorrow.

Heat continues to be a threat for today with the highs in the mid
90s, saturated dewpoints, and tonight we cool to the upper 70s. We
are living up to the "Dog Days of Summer".

Moving into Saturday, the highs will be in the upper 80s with some
areas reaching ~90. The heat is expected to be less oppressive than
the previous few days as the ridge over the northeast moves eastward
and the current high pressure will weaken. Things will remain
unstable and, similar to today, there is a possibilty of
widespread scattered storms tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

The extended forecast will remain unsettled through at least the
first half of the week with daily scattered strong thunderstorm
chances. The pattern will remain similar with plenty of instability
and moisture for storms to pulse up quite fast. PWAT values will
remain above the 75th percentile for local climatology during this
time, so storms will continue to have efficient rainfall rates,
keeping flash flooding a threat with any storms that develop. An
upper level low will move across the Great Lakes Monday, bringing a
higher chance for widespread rain and storms during the Monday
afternoon through early Tuesday timeframe. Deterministic models
are currently trying to resolve this in what appears to be a line
of storms, but we are still a ways out from this, so things could
change. On top of that, winds aloft during that time currently
appear to be quite weak, leading to low shear values, so the
severe weather threat at this time remains low. Regardless, will
be worth keeping an eye on. On Tuesday, a frontal passage will
occur as the trough axis moves through the area. A ridge of higher
pressure will move in behind the exiting trough, allowing for PoP
chances to greatly decrease down to roughly 10-20% Wednesday
through Friday.

Temperatures will be near normal next week with daily highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Dry conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday morning
before scattered storms develop again. PROB30 groups were included
at all terminals to address the storm possibilities during the
afternoon. There is a low to medium chance of fog developing close
to dawn at CSV/SRB so a tempo group was included. Winds will be
light and variable through the overnight hours and then increase
to around 5 kts late in the morning out of the S/SW. If a terminal
is impacted by a storm in the afternoon, a gust to around 25 kts
can`t be ruled out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      73  91  74  90 /  20  50  20  70
Clarksville    73  91  73  88 /  10  40  20  70
Crossville     66  85  67  85 /  30  60  20  60
Columbia       71  89  71  88 /  20  50  20  70
Cookeville     69  86  69  86 /  20  50  20  60
Jamestown      67  86  68  87 /  40  60  20  60
Lawrenceburg   70  88  70  88 /  20  40  20  70
Murfreesboro   71  90  71  89 /  20  40  20  70
Waverly        71  91  70  86 /  10  40  20  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......Reagan
SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Reagan