654
FXUS64 KOHX 172307
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
507 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 459 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

- Expect a return to above-normal temperatures beginning Tuesday.

- Look for periods of showers and thunderstorms from late tonight
  or tomorrow through Friday night, with total rainfall amounts of
  1-2" for most of Middle Tennessee.

- There is a very low risk of strong to severe storms north of
  I-40 on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1023 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

The morning sounding from OHX shows a very dry atmosphere in
place. Temperatures are warming up nicely following a frosty
morning, and a quick warm-up is expected over the next 36 hours
or so. A surface ridge will slide across the region today, which
will set us up with some return flow by tonight, and that will set
the table for showers to begin developing later tonight and
tomorrow, although the showers will be slow to get going due to
the lack of antecedent moisture. Some convection is possible
mainly tomorrow afternoon as temperatures soar into the low to mid
70s most areas west of the Cumberland Plateau, although
instability parameters aren`t going to be all that pronounced.
Still, look for a warm front to develop just north of Middle
Tennessee by 15Z tomorrow, which will place us in a maritime
tropical air mass, with a cold front trailing far off to our west.
At this time, there is a very low risk of strong to severe storms
mainly north of I-40 on Tuesday, as per the SPC.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1023 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Needless to say, an unsettled weather pattern will bring
persistent rain chances to Middle Tennessee throughout the week
and into the weekend. The lack of a true cold fropa until late
Friday or early Saturday means that temperatures will remain
unseasonably warm throughout the week. Once that fropa occurs at the
end of the week, we can expect our rain chances to drop off and also
temperatures to cool down to near seasonal normals. So this
morning`s frost/freeze is likely to be the last one for the
foreseeable future. Total QPF values through Friday night range from
1 to 2" across most of Middle Tennessee, with the lowest amounts
occurring near the TN/AL border, then increasing as we go northward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 459 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

VFR will continue through this TAF cycle. Mid and high clouds will
increase overnight with very light east to southeast winds. Daytime
Tuesday will feature several layers of scattered to broken clouds
as south winds become gusty to 20KT. SHRA/TSRA will impact mainly the
Ohio Valley Tuesday, but isolated cells will occur as far south
as I-40. Coverage / confidence in impacts to terminals is very
low, so keeping tafs dry for now. We may need to consider tempo or
prob30 for CKV/BNA/MQY in future updates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      46  74  59  74 /  10  40  60  10
Clarksville    48  73  58  70 /  40  60  60  10
Crossville     39  65  54  68 /   0  20  80  20
Columbia       47  76  60  77 /  10  20  50  10
Cookeville     42  69  56  70 /  10  30  80  20
Jamestown      40  66  54  68 /  10  30  80  20
Lawrenceburg   46  75  59  78 /   0  10  40  10
Murfreesboro   45  75  60  76 /  10  30  50  10
Waverly        49  73  58  74 /  20  40  60  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....13