001
FXUS64 KOHX 211118
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
518 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 117 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

It`s cooled off quite a bit tonight with current temperatures
ranging from the mid 30s on the Plateau to low 40s across the
rest of middle TN. Winds are starting to pick back up which is
making wind chill values drop into the 30s. This will limit
widespread frost development for tonight. Today is going to feel
much colder as the next push of energy from the powerful upper
level low sweeps across the southeast. An attendant surface low
will drop down this afternoon with a tight pressure gradient
surrounding it. This feature will lead to wind gusts near 35 mph
starting later this morning and will last through much of the
afternoon. So the winds plus afternoon highs only near 50 will
yield a much cooler feel-like temperature. Winds will slightly
relax as we head into Thursday night, but will still be gusty
enough to lead to very cold wind chill values. Anywhere from 20
degrees along the Plateau to 30 across western middle TN. COLD.

Models are still holding on to snow potential for portions of the
Plateau tonight in association with that push of upper-level
energy mentioned above. The HREF appears to be the most excited
about snowfall amounts as the 00Z run currently shows 1-2"
stretching from Cumberland county up through western Clay and
Pickett counties. The latest NBM solution depicts a more realistic
scenario of values ranging from a dusting to just a touch more
than 1 inch over the upper Cumberland. Forecast soundings show a
large amount of dry air in the mid-levels with temperatures
flirting with 32 degrees at the surface, which would lead to some
melting for what would fall. The one thing that could help push
out higher totals (maybe 2 inches) would be the really cold
northwest upslope flow, especially across areas of the upper
Cumberland. Overall, though, it does not look like much
accumulation if any is expected for the majority of the Plateau.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 117 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

The cool temperatures will stick with us through Saturday morning as
the upper-level low pushes off to the northeast. Widespread frost
is expected Saturday morning as winds start to calm. Temperatures
will gradually warm through the day into the 50s. Winds will take
a southerly shift, bringing moisture and warmth back into the
area by Sunday as highs reach into the mid 60s. This will set the
stage for our next chance of rain which comes Monday. The overall
weather pattern for next week generally looks unsettled with a
number of days featuring rain chances. There are still some
inconsistencies in the upper air pattern between models, so it`s
too early for a fine-tuned holiday forecast. Stay tuned, though!

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 512 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

VFR conditions expected through most of the TAF period. The main
aviation concerns in the short term continues to be the gusty
winds of 20 to 30 kts expected today across Middle TN.

As an upper level low swings to the north tonight clouds will
lower after 06Z and maybe even closer to 12Z. CIGs will become
MVFR around 22/12-15Z. They could even become IFR for CSV and SRB.
VCSH of rain/snow for the Cumberland Plateau /CSV and SRB/ after
22 04-05Z. Not expecting much in the way of accumulations except
possible at the colder elevated location and on grassy surface.
Really only expecting a dusting but there could be localized
more...away from the TAF sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      51  37  51  37 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    48  37  50  35 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     44  29  43  31 /   0  40  20   0
Columbia       50  34  50  31 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     45  32  45  33 /   0  20  10   0
Jamestown      43  30  43  34 /  10  50  20   0
Lawrenceburg   50  33  49  30 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   50  35  50  31 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        48  35  50  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....12