247
FXUS64 KOHX 050043
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
643 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 642 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

- A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for portions of the
  Cumberland Plateau tonight for ice accumulation up to 0.10" and
  snow accumulations up to an inch.

- Mixed wintry precipitation is likely across all of Middle TN
  through roughly 2AM. Some slick spots may develop tonight. Be
  cautious when travelling anywhere in the mid state.

- Temperatures warm above freezing Friday afternoon.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...
Issued at 546 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

The 00Z sounding at OHX is underway, but we can give some
preliminary results (up to 400 mb, anyway). This is primarily a
snow sounding. The dendritic layer (-12C to -18C) isn`t completely
saturated, but there is enough moisture present for ice creation.
As we progress downward, there is a warm nose centered at ~830 mb
at which the temperature increases to +2C, which is probably
enough for some melting, but not a great deal. Below that, the
profile cools to -2C at ~955 mb, so whatever melting might be
occurring will likely re-freeze into ice pellets before reaching
the surface, but the bulk of the precipitation is still going to
fall as snow. The surface temperature is +0.5C and has been above
freezing all day, so we don`t expect any accumulation here yet,
although we are starting to receive reports from some of our
Highland Rim locations of light ice accumulations. Fortunately,
the back edge of the precipitation is already crossing the
Tennessee River into Middle Tennessee, so we expect the
precipitation to end from west to east during the next few hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

It`s a cold, cloudy day across middle Tennessee. Moisture from an
inverted trough along the Gulf Coast will provide our rain this
afternoon and evening, with timing looking to start around 3PM. As
this rain continues to linger across the mid-state, cold air will
begin to mix with the rain, leading to wintry mix in areas along
and north of I-40. Trend with this system continue to go up, which
lends to more confidence in wintry and mixed precipitation
occurring.

Diving into specifics, it looks like all modes of wintry
precipitation will be possible overnight. Freezing rain
probabilities continue to increase on the cumberland plateau, where
the winter weather advisory has been in place. The second area
freezing rain probabilities continue to rise is in the intersection
of Williamson, Dickson, and Hickman counties. Probabilities for
freezing rain are less here than on the plateau, but still a notable
increase for the surrounding areas. As of now, probabilities for
>0.01" of freezing rain are up to 70-80% on the Cumberland Plateau,
30-50% in that eastern hot spot I mentioned earlier, and 10-30% on
the I-40 corridor in between. If we bump that up to a tenth of an
inch, 30-50% probability of seeing over 0.1" on the Plateau, 10-20%
chance in the west, and <20% in between. Thankfully, there are no
probabilities for exceeding a quarter of an inch of ice in Middle
Tennessee. As for snow, the greatest chance of seeing accumulating
snow over half an inch is on the Cumberland plateau in the winter
weather advisory. That area could see up to one inch of snow by
tomorrow morning.

Friday morning, precipitation ends and temperatures will warm into
the 40s, which will help with travel conditions across the mid-
state. Once we get into Friday, the day should be relatively quiet
in the aftermath of this system.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Saturday will be dry but cloudy as the next system approaches on
Sunday. Widespread low rain chances overspread the mid-state, with
more cold air following behind it. Could see some wrap around
snowflakes on Monday, but those chances are low and the
accumulations would be nothing. Warmth will return into next week,
with highs in the 50s expected mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1123 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Light rain will push in from the west after 22z with rain, snow,
and freezing rain mixing in along and north of I-40 and over the
Plateau. Precipitation will exit from west to east 7z to 11z.
Light snow accumulation of less than 0.50" will be possible along
and north of I-40 with light ice accumulation of up to 0.05"
mainly over the Plateau. MVFR cigs build in from west to east
later this afternoon into the evening with them continuing to
lower to IFR/LIFR after 02z. Cigs will slowly come rise during the
morning after 16z. Light northerly winds under 8 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      32  44  31  51 /  80   0   0   0
Clarksville    26  43  28  49 /  30   0   0   0
Crossville     32  42  31  46 /  90   0   0  10
Columbia       32  44  30  51 /  90   0   0  10
Cookeville     32  41  31  47 /  90   0   0  10
Jamestown      30  41  29  46 /  90  10   0   0
Lawrenceburg   32  44  30  50 /  90   0   0  10
Murfreesboro   32  44  30  50 /  90   0   0  10
Waverly        27  43  28  48 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for TNZ010-011-
031>034-065-066.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Rose