295
FXUS64 KOHX 172337
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
637 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 637 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms continue to be the pattern for the
  upcoming week with low chances of severe weather and medium
  chances of flash flooding.

- Summer-like heat and drier weather makes an appearance across
  Middle Tennessee for next weekend. Heat indices climb to 100
  degrees Saturday through Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

A long wave trough is set up over the central part of the US and a
short wave is just to our south. This is what has been bringing
widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the day.
Dew points are in the low to mid 70s and we are seeing impressive
PWAT values up to 2.10". Very have rain has been observed with any
convection and we saw BNA pick up 0.82" of rain in just 20-30
minutes. This has lead to localized urban flooding during the
heavy rain. Scattered activity will continue through the evening
but as the sun sets it will loose some of it`s intensity as CAPE
gradually diminishes. The period for very heavy rain with
localized flooding will be over the next 1-3 hours. We will
dry out for the most part overnight but the short wave will be
lifting through the region and can`t rule out a few showers or
isolated thunderstorms but nothing of major impact. It will stay
muggy overnight with mild lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. More
unsettled weather is expected tomorrow with periods of showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Low clouds are our story once again for this morning. The UL trough
and shortwave should push east today, but still provide the forcing
for thunderstorms across the area. Again, a low chance of severe
weather, but flash flooding remains a concern. SPC has placed most
of our area in a marginal risk for severe weather today (level 1/5),
highlighting wind gusts as the most likely hazard. Daytime heating
will play a role in the thunderstorms again, so most likely time
will be in the afternoon and evening. With these storms, in addition
to wind gusts, most likely hazards will be lightning, and heavy
rainfall. PWATs from this morning`s sounding here at the office are
around 1.90", which is close to our daily max and above the 90th
percentile for today. This airmass is extremely moist, and we have
already had above average rainfall this summer, which is why we are
concerned about flash flooding in the area today. Be weather aware
and know your action plan if a flash flood warning is issued.

Wednesday will be a slight lull, in the terms it will be true
diurnal thunderstorm activity without any UL forcing or support.
However, Wednesday night into Thursday morning will be another
story. SPC has placed our NW counties in a slight risk for severe
weather (level 2/5) with a marginal risk (1/5) across the remainder
of the area. Looking at the CAMs, 2 waves are shown. The first line
moves along the KY/TN state line in the evening hours Wednesday, and
is not really a threat to the rest of middle Tennessee. The second
wave is overnight into Thursday morning, and affects the entire
area. It seems stronger in the guidance west of I-65, and then kind
of fizzles out as it moves east. Some guidance shows discrete storms
ahead of the main lines, which would cause more severe weather
issues, but wind is our main threat Wednesday evening into Thursday,
followed by large hail, and a low tornado threat at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

One more day of thunderstorm chances on Thursday after the morning`s
activity, but with the timing shift to be more of an overnight into
the morning event, we will have to see how much the atmosphere can
rebound into the afternoon. If there is enough rebound, we could see
isolated thunderstorms, mainly in the eastern part of the area.
Hazards with these cells will be lightning, heavy rain, and windy
conditions.

The weekend looks largely dry, but humid and hot. A stout ridge will
take hold over the southeast US over the weekend and into next week,
which will limit our rain chances but crank up those temperatures.
Highs look to reach the mid 90s, and the airmass will remain humid
over middle Tennessee, bringing about heat index concerns as they
could creep into the triple digits. We`re monitoring for heat issues
into the weekend, but with the temporal extent, hard to say for
certain now. It looks pretty likely though.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Showers and thunderstorms are moving through the area, just
passing BNA/MQY. SRB and CSV will see thunderstorm chances
continue through the evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
remain in the forecast through the TAF period. Timing and location
of these storms remain difficult to forecast and are inherently
causing low confidence in the forecast. CIGs have been dropping
between IFR-MVFR as storms move over terminals. In general, VFR
CIGs are expected through the forecast period, outside of any
showers or thunderstorms. SW winds will be on the rise tomorrow
afternoon, gusting between 15 to 20 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      72  90  73  86 /  50  40  60  80
Clarksville    73  89  73  85 /  20  80  70  50
Crossville     67  83  67  79 /  70  70  50 100
Columbia       71  89  70  84 /  70  40  60  80
Cookeville     69  84  68  80 /  70  60  50  90
Jamestown      67  84  67  78 /  70  60  50  90
Lawrenceburg   70  88  70  83 /  70  50  50  80
Murfreesboro   71  90  71  85 /  60  50  50  90
Waverly        70  88  70  84 /  30  50  70  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Mueller
SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Cravens