291
FXUS64 KOHX 170335
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1035 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1030 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms continue to be the pattern for the
  upcoming week with low chances of severe weather and medium
  chances of flash flooding.

- Summer-like heat and drier weather makes an appearance across
  Middle Tennessee for next weekend. Heat indices climb to 100
  degrees Saturday through Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Water vapor imagery this evening shows an upper-level trough
starting to move through the Midwest and will continue to track east
through the area into Tuesday. There is an abundant amount of
moisture present with the PWAT on this evening`s sounding coming in
at an impressive 1.97 inches. That`s well above the 90th
percentile for the date, but does fall short of a daily record.
While today`s thunderstorm activity is tapering off, isolated
showers will likely continue overnight due to this moisture and
the trough swinging through the area. But thunderstorm coverage
will increase again Tuesday morning and into the afternoon hours.
With plenty of instability and PWATs remaining near 2 inches,
heavy rain continues to be the primary threat with stronger
thunderstorms. And after days of rainfall, a flooding threat
remains due to already saturated soils. Fortunately, with the
trough moving through the area, storm motions should be quick
enough to prevent slow-moving/stationary storms exacerbating the
flood threat. Similar to the past several days, coverage will
trend down after sunset with isolated activity likely continuing
through the overnight hours.

The trough exits the area late Tuesday, but plenty of moisture
sticks around into Wednesday to lead to more scattered
thunderstorms. The primary threat heading into Wednesday continues
to be heavy rain and flooding. Especially since steering flow is
weak on Wednesday with no upper-level support, and slow storm
motions will increase the flooding threat.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

One more active wave is expected Wednesday night and into Thursday
as another upper-level trough tracks through the Midwest, sending a
front through the area. PWATs remain high at around 1.75", and along
and ahead of this boundary will be slightly better wind shear and
lapse rates. This supports a low severe weather threat Wednesday
night and into early Thursday where the main threat would be
strong to damaging winds. The current SPC Outlook (at the time of
this writing) has almost all of Middle TN in a marginal risk.

A break from the daily rain chances arrives Friday and into the
weekend, but it comes at a price. And fittingly so as the first
official day of summer is Friday. A strong area of high pressure
builds over the SE US through the weekend. This suppresses our
rain chances, but sends temperatures soaring. Highs will warm into
the upper-80s along the Plateau and into the mid-90s west of it.
It unfortunately will be humid, too, which sends heat index values
into the upper-90s and even into the triple digits. If you have
outdoor plans this weekend, be sure to stay hydrated.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across Middle TN, but
coverage should taper off by 05Z. Any direct impacts from
thunderstorms may result in MVFR to IFR cigs and visibilities.
Outside of thunderstorms, MVFR cigs will develop again late
tonight and into early Tuesday morning along with the development
of patchy fog. Conditions will improve by 18Z, but yet another
round of scattered showers and thunderstorms develops Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      72  83  73  89 /  60  90  40  40
Clarksville    72  81  73  89 /  70  90  30  50
Crossville     66  81  67  83 /  50  90  70  70
Columbia       70  83  71  89 /  50  90  40  20
Cookeville     68  82  68  84 /  40  90  60  60
Jamestown      67  82  67  84 /  50  90  70  60
Lawrenceburg   69  83  70  88 /  50  90  40  20
Murfreesboro   70  85  71  90 /  50  90  40  40
Waverly        69  81  71  88 /  70  90  30  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Clements