292
FXUS64 KOHX 281633
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1133 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1133 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

- Afternoon high temperatures will approach seasonal normals from
  today into early next week, after which temperatures will start
  to back off somewhat.

- A generally dry pattern will last through the weekend. Expect
  low to medium rain chances from Labor Day into Thursday, then
  hopefully a dry first weekend of September.

- Low RH values and dry fuels will create a marginal fire danger
  with worsening drought conditions, especially in areas west of
  I-65.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1034 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Surface high pressure has shifted to our east, but still no return
flow is on the way for Middle Tennessee just yet, so temperatures
this afternoon will be similar to yesterday`s. An upper trough
will swing through the mid state during the next several hours,
but rain chances remain minimal owing to the dry, stable air mass
that has settled across the region. Temperatures tomorrow will be
slightly warmer than today, but still quite pleasant owing to a
cool morning and low afternoon RH values, especially in areas west
of I-65.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1034 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Very low rain chances will last through the weekend. A surface
low, or at least a surface trough will drift eastward along the
Gulf Coast Friday night and Saturday, but the active weather from
this system is likely to remain south of Middle Tennessee. Thus
we can expect continued warm afternoons and pleasant mornings
through Sunday. Low to medium rain chances return to the forecast
on Monday and look to stick around at least into Thursday as the
upper pattern flattens out and a deep surface trough develops over
the region and provides added moisture and better dynamics for
convective development. Given the added cloud cover, temperatures
will start to trend back downward starting on Labor Day. The 7-day
QPF totals range from just a few hundredths of an inch around
Dover to over 1.5 inches over portions of the Cumberland Plateau.
Thus, despite the increased rain chances next week, there doesn`t
appear to be any relief in sight for the burgeoning drought
conditions that are beginning to impact areas west of I-65.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

VFR forecast will continue for the taf period. Winds will be
around 5 kts or less and variable.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      86  60  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    86  56  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     77  54  81  55 /   0   0   0  10
Columbia       85  57  89  61 /   0   0   0  10
Cookeville     79  56  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      78  55  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   83  56  87  59 /   0   0   0  10
Murfreesboro   84  57  89  59 /   0   0   0  10
Waverly        84  58  89  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Cravens