282
FXUS61 KOKX 091133
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
633 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across the area this morning shifts offshore as a
weak clipper low passes to the north tonight. A stronger low
approaching on Wednesday will pass to the north and send a cold
front through the area Wednesday night. High pressure will then
build southeast from the northern Plains to the Mid Atlantic
coast from Thursday into Friday, then move off the Southeast
coast Friday afternoon. A series of clipper lows will pass close
by Friday night into Saturday night. An Arctic cold front will
move through on Sunday, with strong high pressure building in on
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Points:

* Warmer today, but still around 10 degrees above normal.

* A slight chance (20 percent) of light snow inland and light
  rain or snow at the coast across southeast Connecticut and
  eastern LI tonight. Any precipitation will be brief. No
  accumulation expected.

Weakening high pressure slides across the area this morning and
then offshore this afternoon. A weakening clipper low over the
Great Lakes today will pass well north of the area tonight. Weak
warm advection ahead of the system and limited moisture will
combine for a slight chance (20%) of light snow inland and light
rain or snow at the coast across southeast CT and eastern LI.

While warmer today, high temperatures are forecast to range
from the upper 20s inland to the lower and and mid 30s along
the coast. The highest temperatures will likely come this
evening into the overnight with a strengthening southerly flow
between low pressure and the offshore high. Coastal locations
may even see gust up to around 20 mph overnight, which will push
temperatures above freezing. The interior will rise, but remain
below freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points:

* Much warmer on Wednesday with highs getting into the 40s with
  the exception of locations well north and west of NYC.

* Deepening low pressure over the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday
  will bring a chance of snow or a rain/snow mix across inland
  locations. A changeover to rain is expected. Best chance for
  a minor accumulation will be across Orange and Putnam Counties
  in NY and Western Passaic in NJ.

* A return to below normal temperatures Thursday.

A progressive southern branch of the polar jet will send Pac
jet energy into the Midwest, while additional shortwave energy
rotating about a polar vortex over eastern Canada allows some
phasing of the two streams. The result will be a deepening low
that tracks across the Lower Great Lakes Wednesday, passing well
north and west into eastern Canada Wednesday night. Warm advection
and upper jet dynamics will produce a light precipitation event
across the area, with liquid equivalent amount of 1-2 tenths.
Thus, any snow accumulation inland is expected to be minor with
the highest amounts across Orange and Putnam Counties in NY and
western Passaic in NJ. These locations could see up to an inch
in spots. A complete changeover to rain is still expected but
there has been a slight cooling trend over the last 24h. Coastal
locations will see all rain from the start. Temperatures are
also forecast to get above freezing everywhere. SW winds will
continue ahead of the system and remain gusty at the coast.
Weighed in some NBM90th for stronger winds based on 00Z vertical
wind profiles from the GFS and NAM (which have been consistent
with this).

Conditions then dry out Wednesday night with some light
precipitation possibly lingering into the evening. Following a
cold frontal passage, lows will drop into the upper 20s inland
and the lower 30s at the coast by daybreak.

Below normal temperatures and gusty WNW flow will follow on
Thursday with gusts up to 30 mph likely. Once again, leaned
toward the NBM90 as the NBM in cold advection and westerly flow
is often deficient. Highs Thursday are forecast to be in the 30s
with lows Thursday night in the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Points:

* Temperatures will be at least several degrees below normal
  through Saturday, then trend even colder early next week.

* A clipper low may bring light snow or flurries to the area
  Friday night into early Saturday. Another system will bring a
  chance Saturday night into Sunday morning. Some of the 00Z
  guidance is showing the potential for a more substantial
  system.

* Another shot of Arctic air arriving behind low pressure Sunday
  into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure shifts through the region today, and offshore
tngt.

Mainly VFR. There is a low chance that MVFR could reach SWF aft
15Z Wed, but the prob is too low to include in the TAFs attm.

N winds mainly under 10kt through the morning push, except
light and variable away from the city terminals. Winds
eventually become southerly this afternoon before veering more
SW tonight and increasing. Gusts 20-25kt for the coastal
terminals tonight. Winds strengthen a bit aft 14Z Wed.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday: MVFR or lower develops with a chance of rain/snow
across interior Lower Hudson Valley. Then a chance of rain
during the late afternoon and into the evening. S-SW
10-15g25-30kt possible.

Thursday: VFR. W gusts 20-25 kt.

Friday: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in any rain or snow showers late
in the day or at night. W gusts around 20 kt.

Saturday: Brief MVFR possible east early, otherwise VFR. W gusts 20-
25 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Gale watch has been posted for all waters Wednesday in a
strengthening S/SW flow. This will be preceded by SCA tonight.
There is even a possibility for occasional gale force gusts on
the ocean waters tonight. Gust potential Wednesday looks to be
around 40 kt on the ocean waters and around 35 kt on the Sound
and Bays. During this time, leaned toward the NBM90, which may
be underdone still. 00Z GFS and NAM soundings show potential for
a period where gusts may get up to 45 kt on the ocean waters.
Seas are forecast to get as high on 8-13 ft on the ocean waters
Wednesday.

SCA cond likely on all waters Thu into Thu night, with W-NW
flow gusting to 25-30 kt and some gusts on the ocean approaching
minimal gale force.

Any lull in wind gusts/seas just below 25 kt/5 ft on the ocean
late Fri into Fri night will be short lived.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon
     for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night
     for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$