760
FXUS61 KOKX 021751
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1251 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low pressure system passes southeast of the region
through tonight, and into the Canadian Maritimes by Wednesday.
High pressure then returns for Wednesday and Thursday, with a
cold frontal passage Thursday afternoon. Low pressure will then
pass to the south and east Friday night into Saturday, with weak
high pressure returning Saturday night into Sunday, followed by
another cold front Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Points:

* Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect until 10pm for
  Orange, Putnam, Western Passaic Counties through today, the
  advisory for Rockland has been discontinued due to
  temperatures getting above freezing. Snow criteria falls short
  in these zones, except for northern Orange and portions of
  western most Orange County, mainly along and north of I-84
  where 2 to 3 inches of snow occur, perhaps localized 4 inch
  amounts in higher elevations. The advisory was allowed to
  continue elsewhere due to the prospect of pockets of freezing
  rain working in at times.

* Coastal storm will continues to bring all rain for the metro,
  the coast, and southern most portions of the interior.

For this afternoon have included occasional to brief freezing
rain wording for northern most zones. This also includes
Northern Fairfield, Northern New Haven, and Northern Middlesex
as temperatures hover around 31 to 32 along northern edge of our
interior CT zones. Have chosen to go with an SPS here due to
lower areal coverage with freezing rain. Advisories allowed to
continue for much of the interior Lower Hudson Valley (Putnam
and Orange) with Putnam and portions of Orange dealing with
prospect of some freezing rain with N to NE wind in these
interior northern locations. W Passaic was allowed to remain in
place with advisory, however temps here are beginning to nose to
and above freezing with slippery conditions likely just
including higher elevations.

Temperatures should rise to above freezing for all but Orange
County by mid afternoon, the upper 30s/lower 40s for NYC/NJ
metro, and as high as the upper 40s. Winds pick up in wake of
the departing low late this afternoon/tonight, with NW winds
15-25 gusting up to 35 mph. Refreezing of any standing water is
likely tonight as much of the area drops below freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points:

* Dry conditions for the period.

* High temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s, which is
  about 10 degrees below normal.

For Wednesday, high pressure over the OH Valley moves slowly east,
with the local area caught between it and the departing coastal
system. The pressure gradient looks to relax by midday Wed, so any
lingering gusts should subside. Thursday looks similar as the high
remains to our southwest and a cold front approaches from the
northwest. It looks to pass through the area Thursday afternoon dry
and with little fanfare, other than some increased cloudiness.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Points:

* Below normal temperatures expected, running as much as 10-15
  degrees below normal Friday and again Sunday night/Monday.

* Low pressure passing to the south may give a glancing blow late
  Friday night into Saturday.

Very cold on Friday as a 1030 mb high (supported via strong mid
level confluence behind the departing upper trough over eastern
Canada) slides across, with highs from the upper 20s well inland
to mid 30s metro/coastal sections. The high will retreat Fri
night, with a srn stream low passing to the south in progressive
quasi- zonal flow aloft. Polar jet may be modeled too strongly
and ridging off the SE coast too weakly, so despite suppressed
00Z GFS solution think the sys will at least give a glancing
blow late Fri night into early Sat afternoon, with 30 PoP for
all but the lower Hudson Valley. Thermal profiles supportive of
light snow late Fri night/early Sat morning, then a transition
to a light rain/snow mix for interior SE CT and all rain across
ern Long Island and coastal SE CT for late morning/early
afternoon.

Cold frontal passage Sunday night as a closed low swings across
ern Canada will usher in yet another very cold air mass for
early next week, with lows in the teens/20s and highs in the
upper 20s/lower 30s for Monday. This shot of cold air looks to
be longer lasting than the one for Thu night/Fri of this week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure continues to develop off the Middle Atlantic coast
this afternoon, passing southeast of Long Island late afternoon
into the evening. High pressure builds to the southwest of the
area tonight through Wednesday.

IFR in rain for most terminals with the exception across
interior Lower Hudson Valley and interior SW CT where mainly
snow continues. Some mixed precipitation is expected with a
change to a snow/rain mix or brief freezing rain possible. Total
snow accumulation at KSWF ranges from 2 to 4 inches.

Brief, local LIFR possible this afternoon. Conditions will begin
improving from west to east into the evening with MVFR likely
then VFR overnight.

NE-N winds 5-10 kt this afternoon. Winds become NW this evening
and increase to 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt. Gusts will likely
continue through 07-10z with NW winds remaining around 10 kt
into Wednesday morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Brief LIFR possible through 21z.

Timing of improving flight categories this evening may be off by
1-3 hours.

Onset time of gusts may be off by 1-2 hours this evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday PM: VFR.

Thursday: VFR. W winds G20-25kt in the afternoon/evening.

Friday: VFR during the day. Chance of MVFR and light snow at
night.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR and light snow/rain in the morning,
mainly E of the NYC metros.

Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA remains in effect on all waters through Wed AM in
association with the coastal low pressure system. Gusts to 30 kt
are likely, occasionally to 35 kt, with seas 5-6 ft on the ocean
and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

Winds and seas diminish through Wednesday with seas falling
below advisory thresholds by the end of the day. Winds and
seas then begin to increase late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning ahead of a cold front that passes through in the
afternoon and brings marginal gales on the ocean waters. SCA
conds otherwise likely on all waters late Wed night into
Thursday morning and lasting into Thursday night.

Any lingering 5-ft seas on the outer coastal ocean waters out
east early Fri morning should subside quickly as strong high
pressure builds from the west. No hazards anticipated thereafter
through Sunday afternoon due to a weak pressure gradient and
lack of appreciable swell, with seas no higher than 2-3 ft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Minor nuisance/poor drainage flooding is possible with 0.5-1.0
inch of precipitation likely, especially with snowmelt and any
clogged drains with fallen leaves. Rainfall rates however are
not expected to exceed 0.25 inch/hr. This would be for a period
from midday to this evening.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ067-068.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     NJZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ331-332-
     335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/DBR
NEAR TERM...JE/DBR
SHORT TERM...DBR
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BG/DBR
HYDROLOGY...BG/DBR