047
FXUS61 KOKX 101157 CCA
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
657 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure over the Lower Great Lakes this morning will
track northeast and up into the St. Lawrence River Valley
tonight, sending a cold front through the area late. The
deepening low will lift up into the Canadian Maritimes Thursday
into Thursday night as high pressure builds in from the
southwest. The weakening high builds into the area Friday night.
Another clipper low over the Great Lakes Saturday will send
another shot of arctic air across the region Saturday night into
Sunday. Strong high pressure will then build in early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Points:

* Minor snow event forecast for Western Passaic NJ, Orange
  County NY, Putnam County NY, and the northern tip of Fairfield
  County CT late this morning into this afternoon. Snow mixing
  with, if not changing to all rain, will limit accumulations of
  snow. Little to no snow accumulation for most locations. A
  few spots, particularly north and west of I-84 in Orange
  County could see up to a slushy, wet inch.

* Light rainfall event for the rest of the forecast area.

* SW winds gusting 20 to 35 mph today, highest across the coast
  this afternoon into early this evening. Winds will then become
  west late tonight behind a cold front with gusts 20 to 30
  mph.


Biggest change this go around has been for less warm advection
precipitation ahead of a strong low over the Lower Great Lakes
this morning. In fact, much of the guidance has trended to a dry
morning with the possible exception of far western portions of
Orange county in the Lower Hudson Valley. This has been reflected
in the latest NBM. Temperatures have actually fallen back off a
bit even along the coast where eastern LI and SE CT earlier
with the onshore flow rose into the lower 40s. Winds have veered
a bit more to the west with less of a marine influence, thus
the cooling.

Much of the precipitation that falls later this afternoon into
the evening will be associated with upper jet dynamics. In
fact, while there is some lift from warm advection, the low
levels this morning are dry and the main reason why the morning
will be mainly dry. Any snow that does fall will be across
Orange and Putnam counties in NY and western Passaic in NJ. Even
at these locations expect it to mix with rain and even go over
to all rain in southern and eastern portions of these counties.
Liquid equivalent amounts remain at only 1-2 tenths. This combined
with temperatures above freezing will mean little if any will
accumulate. Latest snow forecast only calling for a minor
accumulations up to a few tenths of an inch, but higher amounts
north and west of I-84 and Port Jervis have the chance to up to
an inch.

The band of precipitation will work west to east across the area
this afternoon into this evening, clearing much of the area by
midnight. There could be some lingering light rain across far
eastern LI/SE CT in the early morning hours.

SW winds today will gusts 20 to 30 mph, highest along the coast.
Would not be surprised to see a few gusts up to 35 mph at the
coast. Once gain, the forecast is heavily based on the NBM90 as
supported by some 00Z guidance. NBM looks underdone.

Highs today are forecast to get well into the 40s along the
coast, falling off into the mid and upper 30s well north and
west of NYC. Following a cold frontal passage late tonight,
temperatures are forecast to fall into the 20s well inland and
to around 30 at the coast. Gusty west winds behind the front
should limit the amount of cooling although there will be some
clearing late. Stayed with the NBM for temps, but it`s quite
possible it may later need to be adjusted upward a bit.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points:

* Below normal temperatures through the period with highs in the
  30s and lows in the teens and 20s.

* WNW winds Thursday gusting to 30 to 40 mph but some peak
  higher gusts near 45 mph possible. This will produce wind
  chill values in the teens and 20s.

Deepening low pressure lifts north across the Canadian Maritimes,
with high pressure building in from the SW. This will maintain
a tight pressure gradient across the region with strong WNW
winds Thursday into Thursday night. Winds look to below
advisory level at this time. This combined with below normal
temperatures in the 30s will produce wind chill values in the
teens and 20s, falling off into the single digits and teens
Thursday night.

There is some hint of a band of snow showers potentially
working in from the west, originating off the Great Lakes making
into the Poconos and possibly northern NJ and Orange County in
the Lower Hudson Valley. This is not reflected in the NBM, but
noted particularly in the CAMs. There is even some weak
instability up 50 J/KG in the NAM.

High pressure building in from the southwest will allow for
winds to come down some on Friday and even go light Friday night
as the high builds overhead. Stayed with NBM chances of light
snow or flurries Friday night, but the trend is toward drying
and this could very well be removed in a subsequent forecast.
Warm advection has weakened.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Points:

* A clipper low may bring in light snow or flurries for Saturday
  morning. The trend is toward a drier forecast.

* An Arctic cold front and associated upper level disturbance will
  bring a better chance for light snow Saturday night into Sunday
  morning.

* A shot of Arctic air will follow for later Sunday into Tuesday,
  with temps up to 10 degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak high pressure through this afternoon gives way to a cold front
passing through late tonight.

VFR through at least early afternoon. Conds lower to mostly MVFR
late afternoon into the evening with rain, but eventually lowering
to IFR at KSWF/KHPN/KGON. SNRA anticipated for KSWF. Precip ends
tonight with improvement back to VFR by the Thursday morning
push. VFR thereafter.

Increasing SW winds into the aftn. Winds veer to the W tngt,
then to the WNW late tngt/early Thu behind the front. NW/WNW
flow all Thu with gusts to around 35kt.

Winds at 2kft could be around 45 kt from approx 15-21Z for KJFK/KLGA
and terminals farther east.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional gusts to 25kt possible thru 15z.

Onset of rain and MVFR could be later than fcst and may hold
off til aft 21Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday: VFR. W gusts 30-35kt.

Friday: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in any rain or snow showers late
at night. W gusts around 20 kt.

Saturday: Brief MVFR possible east early, otherwise VFR. W gusts
15-20 kt.

Sunday: MVFR or lower in snow. NW flow with gusts to around 20
kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Gale warning in effect for all waters except NY Harbor today in
a SW flow. There is expected to be small fall off in winds
tonight to just below criteria, but westerly gales are likely
to return to all waters Thursday into Thursday night as low
pressure tracks across eastern Canada and high pressure builds
in from the southwest, maintaining a strong pressure gradient.
Ocean seas Wednesday forecast to build to near 7 to 12 feet
with 3 to 5 feet for the Eastern Long Island Sound seas. For
Thursday, expect similar seas on the ocean, but 4 to 7 ft across
eastern LI Sound.

SCA cond on all waters Fri morning (W winds gusting to 25-30
kt, with seas 5-10 ft on the ocean and 4-5 ft on the central/ern
Sound) should slowly wind down Fri afternoon, lingering on the
ocean waters (gusts up to 25 kt and seas 4-6 ft) into Fri
evening. After an upper level disturbance passes by, SCA cond
should return to the ocean waters Sat morning and the non ocean
waters Sat afternoon, with gusts 25-30 kt and ocean seas 3-5 ft,
and continue into Sat night.

After an Arctic cold frontal passage on Sunday, then as low pressure
develops/intensifies along the front SE of New England, winds should
veer NW, and gale force wind gusts will be possible. Seas should
build to 5-8 ft on the ocean, and up to 5 ft on the
central/ern Sound.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Less than a quarter of an inch of liquid equivalent through
tonight. No hydrologic impacts are expected through the week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-332-335-
     340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ338.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$