512
FXUS61 KOKX 291152
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
752 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure builds into the area this week with a warming
trend into the end of the week.

2) Water levels may approach minor coastal flood benchmarks the next
couple of days, especially along the south shore back bays of
Nassau and SW Suffolk on Long Island.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Low pressure will continue to push out of the area Tuesday as
surface high pressure builds into the area from the west through
the rest of the week. While a stray pop-up shower remains
possible later this afternoon, mainly dry conditions are
anticipated much of the rest of this week.

Much of the global modeling remains in good agreement that a
quick warming trend will impact the area Thursday and Friday
before a cold frontal passage cools things off again into Friday
night and the weekend. The NBM is trending up with highs in the
70s and lower 80s, but 16-18C at h85 combined with progged wly
component winds would support highs near 90, especially the
usual warmer spots in NJ and NY.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Water levels will continue to gradually fall the next couple of
days. While most surge guidance falls below minor coastal flood
benchmarks into today, a continued 2 ft easterly swell could
keep just enough water in the south shore back bays of Nassau
for water levels to approach or touch minor coastal flood
benchmarks there. Spotty minor coastal flooding is also
possible late this morning on the tidal waters of NE NJ and this
afternoon along the SW CT coastline.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak low pressure will drift slowly NE through the Gulf of Maine
toward Nova Scotia. Low clouds in its wake will persist through
much of the period and cigs may be in the MVFR flight category
at times. Think best time frame for these lower cigs at the NYC
metros will be during the early afternoon. Can`t rule out am
isolated late day or early evening sprinkle or shower.

NW flow under 10 kt expected. Late day SW sea breeze fcst at
KJFK/KBDR and may also occur at KGON.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Exact start/end times of MVFR cigs is uncertain and they could
occur later than fcst.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Friday: VFR.
Friday night and Saturday: Mainly VFR.
Saturday night: Chance of showers. MVFR cond possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will be below SCA levels through Saturday with
high pressure building into the area and a weak pressure
gradient over the waters.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MW
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...MW