476
FXUS61 KOKX 080830
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
430 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes since the previous update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Chance of a thunderstorm Thursday afternoon into evening with
little to no impacts currently anticipated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure over the area will gradually move offshore late today
and remain in control through Wednesday, keeping us dry through the
period. A progressive upper trough will then send a cold front
towards the area Wednesday night into Thursday. A pre-frontal trough
may provide enough moisture convergence and lift for a shower mainly
north and west of the city late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Guidance is in good agreement with the trailing cold front
moving through the area late Thursday or Thursday night. The modeled
pattern favors limited forcing and only a brief window for deeper
moisture. The latest NBM indicates less than likely PoPs (30 to 50
percent) Thursday afternoon and evening, which looks reasonable.
Speed shear would be sufficient for severe weather, but instability
looks limited. So while there is a chance of a thunderstorm, severe
weather still looks unlikely at this point. Both SPC and WPC do not
have any of the forecast area within at least a marginal risk of
severe wx/flash flooding.

High pressure and dry conditions will return Friday into next
weekend with the warmest days of the week being Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the NW through Tuesday and pushes
offshore late in the day into the evening hours.

VFR through the TAF period.

Light NW winds early this morning. Variable at many terminals.
W to NW flow this morning shift to the SW to S for many
terminals by the afternoon, especially closer to the coast as a
hybrid sea breezes develops. Wind speeds will be 10 kt or less
today. This evening, winds will diminish with many sites going
light and variable again tonight.


     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday Night: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. SW gusts 20-25 kt and showers possible with
MVFR late at night.

Thursday: Chance of MVFR or lower in SHRA. SW/ gusts around 20
kt possible.

Friday and Saturday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria
through tonight with high pressure over the waters. SW winds will
then increase ahead of an approaching cold front into Wednesday.
Wind gusts probably reach 25 kt on the ocean starting Wednesday
afternoon and then spread to the rest of the waters Wednesday
night. There is a chance of gale force gusts on the ocean late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning east of Fire Island Inlet.
With the gale potential being only marginal late in the 4th
period into 5th period, will hold off on issuing a Gale Watch,
but will continue to mention this potential in the HWO. Ocean
seas build to 5-8 ft Wednesday night into Thursday, with waves
on LI sound building 3-4 ft. Winds and seas gradually diminish
during Thursday, probably falling below SCA levels on the non-
ocean waters by the end of the morning, and during Thursday
night on the ocean. Conditions below SCA levels will then
continue into next Saturday.

Rip Currents:

There is a low rip current risk for the ocean beaches today with the
lack of significant winds or swell.

S-SW winds increase Wednesday, especially in the afternoon and
evening. Wind speeds 15-20 kt will help build seas and swell, but
more likely late in the day and evening. Have gone with a moderate
rip current risk for now, but the risk could become high late in the
afternoon or early evening.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...JC