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FXUS61 KOKX 220603
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
203 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Aviation for the 06z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Unsettled conditions persist this weekend, with additional
chances for showers and thunderstorms at times.

2) Drying out early next week, with temperatures remaining slightly
below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Broad troughing remains across Great Lakes and Northeast, with
a nearly stalled boundary and area of low pressure meandering
just offshore.

The center of the nearby low pressure is very evident on
GOES-19 visible satellite imagery this afternoon, spinning about
90 mi SSE of Montauk in the western Atlantic. Cloud canopy is
swirling around it, with overcast skies persisting across Long
Island and much of S CT today, but much brighter skies from NYC
on north and west. The center should continue meandering slowly
eastward, bringing an end to and remaining light rain or
drizzle by early this evening, before another wave approaches
from the southwest on Saturday.

A few morning showers could clip some coastal locations, before a
lull then develops most of Saturday. Broad forcing for ascent
from the trough, along with the shortwave energy moving through
should help to instigate additional showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms by late Saturday evening. Instability looks
relatively limited, but moisture will be abundant, with PWATs
along the coast increasing toward 2 inches. WPC has maintained a
marginal risk of excessive rainfall across the entire local
area, and given the recent rains, it won`t take much to renew
any nuisance flooding in the urbanized and poor drainage areas.
The threat for flash flooding will likely be contingent on
training of heavier cells, which is a possibility overnight into
Sunday morning. Peak hourly rainfall rates could approach an
inch to an inch and a half, with localized totals up to a few
inches. Coverage and severity of this activity appears lower
in general than Thursday`s event however, and opted not to
hoist a Flood Watch at this point.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Cyclonic flow with afternoon stratocu likely persists through
early next week as the trough axis remains across the Northeast.
The trough gradually exits into midweek as the flow aloft
transitions to more quasi zonal.

Absent any isolated diurnal showers, conditions largely remain
dry as high pressure builds in and winds become westerly.
Temperatures are forecast to remain slightly below normal, with
daytime highs in the 70s to around 80.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure drifts away from the terminals overnight. Another wave
of low pressure slowly approaches from the south late today into
Saturday night.

Mainly VFR through the overnight, excluding KGON where MVFR cigs likely move
in late in the overnight. MVFR cigs may also get into other eastern terminals
like KISP and KBDR briefly overnight. Prevailing MVFR cigs are then expected
to move in towards 14-15z this morning, and could be borderline VFR/MVFR
through late Saturday afternoon, especially for NYC terminals and north and
west. Latest trends have KSWF remaining VFR through today. PROB30 now for
-RA during this afternoon for most terminals, with the exception
being for northern terminals.

MVFR ceilings become more widespread after 00z Sunday, along with some IFR
ceilings possible, especially closer to 06z Sunday.

Light winds overnight and either vrb or NE in direction. E/SE winds under
10kt for Saturday. The winds will be light, mainly at or under 5 kt into
Saturday evening.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

AMD possible with borderline VFR/MVFR cigs today.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday night: Showers and potential thunderstorms late. MVFR to
IFR.

Sunday: A chance of showers, especially north of the city
terminals. Possible thunderstorms. Chance of MVFR or lower at
times.

Monday through Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Expect sub-SCA conditions to persist through early next week as
a weak pressure gradient settles in over the local waters.

Rip Currents: The rip current risk remains moderate for both
Saturday and Sunday with a prevailing SE swell.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DR
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...DR