773
FXUS61 KOKX 060715
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
315 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Coastal Flood Statement issued for Southern Nassau County for
late this afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Isolated minor flooding expected this afternoon for Southern
Nassau County with limited impacts.

2) Cooler today with a lingering chance for a few brief rain
showers.

3) Drier and warming back up through midweek, before a cold
front moves through on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Onshore winds with an E to SE swell this afternoon are expected to
contribute to isolated instances of tides touching minor flooding
benchmarks. This appears to be limited to along the south shore back
bays of Southern Nassau County, and only brief minor flooding across
the typically more vulnerable locations is anticipated. No flooding
is expected anywhere across the forecast area for Monday.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Upper low continues to meander over the Canadian Maritimes,
gradually shifting out to sea through Labor Day. Meanwhile, surface
high pressure builds south from Canada into midweek.

Today offers a taste of early autumn, with noticeably cooler
conditions than recent days. H850 temps have fallen to 8-10C and
afternoon highs are forecast in the low to mid 70s; about 5 to 10
degrees below normal for the time of year. Humidity remains down
with dew pts in the 50s this afternoon, allowing a comfortable feel
to the air. Expect more clouds than sun much of the day with steep
low level lapse rates from the cold pool aloft and cyclonic flow.

A few isolated to widely scattered showers remain possible much
of the day as weak shortwaves rotate around the closed low
trough. Best chances of seeing this remain across S CT, though a
brief spotty shower is possible throughout the forecast area.
The bulk of the day remains dry and not everyone will see wet
weather.


.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Drier, warmer conditions are expected over the next several
days with high pressure building in as the upper trough works
into the western Atlantic.

Labor Day morning starts cool and crisp, with upper 40s possible
in the coldest locales, mainly far interior and LI Pine Barrens,
and 50s elsewhere. Continue to blend in colder MAV/MET data
given the potential for efficient radiative cooling that is
often not fully captured in the national blend. Temperatures
rebound into the 70s to around 80 Monday afternoon, with
sunshine and low humidity expected.

The dry weather persists through midweek as heights build from
the west. This sets up a gradual warming trend, with NYC and
much of NE NJ into the mid 80s by Wednesday.

Cold front approaches Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing
the next widespread chance for rain. It`s still a bit early to
delve too deeply into the details, but an axis of deep moisture
looks to advect in ahead of the boundary that could allow for
heavy rainfall. The trend with the fropa continues to be more
progressive though, and high pressure follows by Friday, with
cooler air advecting in to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure slowly builds in from the NW through tonight.

Mainly VFR. Tempo MVFR in/near showers this morning. Can`t rule
out an afternoon shower, but chances aren`t high enough to
include in TAFs.

Winds mostly NE under 10kt however E to SE at times for some of
the coastal terminals, especially in the afternoon. Light and
variable winds tonight.

       NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Tempo shra/MVFR conds could be off by a couple of hours, and
possibly may not occur at at all.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Night-Tuesday: Mainly VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. SW gusts 20-25 kt and showers possible
with MVFR night.

Thursday: VFR. W gusts around 20 kt possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria through Tuesday.

Thereafter, SW winds increase ahead of an approaching frontal
system. Wind gusts on the coastal waters may begin to exceed SCA
criteria (25 kt) Wednesday afternoon, which likely then continues
through Thursday. Gale conditions are possible during this time,
particularly on the ocean. Ocean seas build to 5-9 ft. Winds and
seas gradually subside into Thursday night.

Rip Currents:

A lack of significant wind or swell will lead to a low rip current
risk through at least Labor Day.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DR/JC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...DR