048
FXUS61 KOKX 211137
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
737 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes from the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered severe thunderstorms and flash flooding impacts
possible today into tonight.

2) There is a high risk of rip currents for all ocean beaches
today and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A primary low pressure center tracks east through SE Canada today
into Wednesday. A weak secondary low along a warm front shifts near
the western portion of the forecast area this afternoon - more
likely towards late day. A trailing cold front then slowly moves
through during Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Rainfall expected
today into a portion of tonight with rain chances overall lower
during Wednesday.

Severe weather will be possible with sufficient wind and speed shear
with CAPE increasing as the day wears on. A mitigating factor for
severe storms at least this morning into very early afternoon looks
to be only modest CAPE. It won`t be until mid to late afternoon when
CAPE increases more significantly with the approach and passage of
the weak low and warm front, which will also enhance helicity and
promote severe weather. CAMs are not exactly in agreement regarding
the most likely time periods of showers/storms during the daytime
hours - only that shower chances begin to ramp up after around 8-9am
over western portions. There is at least better agreement for a
period of showers and potential storms towards sundown and into the
evening hours. By this time however, instability will be diminishing.
So while severe weather could occur as early as around noontime, it
appears that it would more likely to occur in the late afternoon to
early evening hours. Damaging winds would be the most likely
impacts, but a low chance of large hail or a tornado still exist.
SPC`s severe weather outlook for today is basically unchanged from
yesterday afternoon with most of the area within a slight risk and a
portion of NE NJ with an enhanced risk. CAPE and shear won`t be as
high for the most part on Wednesday, but can`t rule out strong to
severe gusts during this period with SPC showing a marginal risk of
severe thunderstorms for most of the area.

PWATs will be 2.00 to 2.25 inches and rainfall rates of mostly 1-2
inches per hour will be possible, but may be up to 2.50 inches per
hour. No changes made to the Flood Watch as flash flooding is
expected mainly in more urbanized and poor drainage areas. There are
some signals of high rainfall rates over portions of the Lower
Hudson Valley, but given current FFG values, didn`t think that the
probability was high enough to expand the watch in area. Orange and
Rockland Counties were considered for expansion. WPC has the entire
area within a slight risk of flash flooding today into tonight.
Flooding impacts could begin as early as around noontime for some
areas with the threat dropping off by midnight for most areas.
Impacts are not anticipated for Wednesday. Current rainfall forecast
for today through Wednesday has most of the area at 1 to 2 inches,
but locally 3+ inches are possible.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
*High Impact Aviation Weather Day Today*

A frontal system impacts the region today, bringing several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the region.

A warm front moves across the area terminals this morning,
bringing a round of SHRA/TSRA, with the best chances NW of the
NYC terminals. Conditions likely decline to MVFR in this
activity, before a more widespread round of showers and
thunderstorms impact the terminals during the afternoon and
evening, which likely persists into the first part of tonight.
The primary concern with any thunderstorms will be the strong
gusty winds, which could see gusts up to 50kt or greater. IFR or
lower conditions will be possible this afternoon through the
tonight especially for terminals east of NYC.

Southerly flow at or under 10 kt becomes S/SE after sunrise
with speeds 10-15 kt with gusts 20 to 25 kt. Wind gusts diminish
tonight, but speeds remain around 10kt or so.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of SHRA/TSRA today could be off by a couple of hours.

IFR or lower possible at times in SHRA/TSRA.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday Night and Wednesday: MVFR or lower with showers/tstms.

Thursday - Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sustained southerly winds average around 15kt today and increase
tonight. Gusts 25-30kt expected on some of the area waters today and
tonight with the ocean likely still seeing advisory-level gusts into
Wednesday. Seas here will also remain elevated through Weds.
SCA continues for the ocean and some of the non-ocean waters today
and tonight. Some of the non-ocean zones might not be seeing SCA
conds for a good portion of Wednesday, but not enough confidence at
this point to shorten the advisory. SCA might need to be extended in
time for the ocean for lingering 5+ft seas.

Rip Currents:
A high rip current risk is expected Tuesday through Wednesday
with no headline changes. Some areas could come close to high
surf criteria, mainly tonight into Wednesday. A high surf
advisory could eventually be needed, however by the time the
swell height and period increase, the swell direction becomes
less orthogonal to the coastline, limiting the threat high surf
conditions.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Flood Watch through late tonight for NYZ072>075-176-178.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Wednesday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...Flood Watch through late tonight for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ332-340.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ345-350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JC