706
FXUS61 KOKX 152308
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
608 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front moves across this evening and an associated cold
front crosses through the area early Sunday. The associated low
deepens and tracks from Maine into the Canadian Maritimes
Sunday through Sunday night. The low slowly weakens and moves
north Monday into Monday night. High pressure gradually builds
in from the southwest Tuesday before a weak area of low pressure
passes to the south Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure
will then briefly return for Thursday before a frontal system
potentially impacts the area for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mid level ridge axis moves across early this evening with a
longer wavelength trough approaching thereafter. At the surface,
a frontal system approaches from the Great Lakes. The parent low
deepens as it approaches, eventually moving into Northern New
England by early Sunday. An associated warm front moves across
this evening with an associated cold front following that going
into early Sunday.

The probabilities for rainfall increase rapidly tonight in
response to an approaching left front quad of upper level jet
as well as mid level positive vorticity advection. Rain showers
expected to develop and move in from the west heading into early
this evening and then become numerous across the entire for the
rest of this evening and into overnight. Showers will be moving
from west to east.

The combination of the low level jet as well as some elevated
instability could have some embedded isolated thunderstorms.
MUCAPE up to near 100 J/kg indicated in some model BUFKIT
soundings in the local area for tonight. Main shower activity
concludes before daybreak Sunday but precipitation not totally
out of the picture for the rest of the day.

With the abundance of clouds, rain showers and winds staying up
within boundary layer, a relatively mild night for temperatures
is expected. Forecast lows are mainly within the 40 to 50 degree
range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level vort max moves across the region Sunday into Sunday
night. Mid level negative height tendency expected Sunday into
early Monday. Then, mid level heights slowly rise with a return
to quasi-zonal flow.

At the surface, low pressure strengthens as it moves from Maine
into the Canadian Maritimes Sunday into Sunday night. The low
in Southeast Canada moves north and slowly weakens Monday into
Monday night. A tight pressure gradient will be established
across the area Sunday and will remain tight through Monday
before relaxing Monday night.

There will be strong cold air advection Sunday through Monday
before beginning to weaken Monday night.

Models indicating enough vertical forcing with the cyclonic
flow aloft and low level omega to allow for isolated shower
activity across parts of the region Sunday into Sunday evening.
This forcing plus several mesoscale models indicating increased
reflectivity within discrete areas traversing the local region
add confidence in this potential. Probabilities for
precipitation were manually adjusted higher than NBM and enough
to make for isolated shower wording for different parts of the
region. Most of the showers are expected to be rain although
some interior locations closer to 40 degrees temperature late
Sunday into Sunday evening could have some snowflakes mixing in
due to wet bulb cooling.

An overall mitigating factor to the precipitation will be the
drier air and this could very well lead to precipitation
dissipating before reaching the ground.

Overall, expect very breezy conditions and near normal
temperatures along with some parts of the area getting a quick
shower for Sunday. Then, mainly dry conditions but still breezy
and colder than normal temperatures Sunday night through Monday
night. Winds will begin to more substantially decrease Monday
night as the pressure gradient relaxes and becomes less tight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key points:

* Temperatures below normal through Wednesday, moderating to normal
  Thursday, and increasingly above normal heading into Saturday.

* Mainly dry through at least Thursday afternoon with rain chances
  increasing for Thursday night and Friday. Too early to have any
  confidence regarding impacts.

Global models are in decent agreement through the upcoming week and
only minor deviations were made from National Blend of Models (NBM).
Both a negative AO and NAO (shorter term climate signals) has lead
to a blocking pattern across the North Atlantic and an upper vortex
over eastern Canada. This has resulted in cooler than normal
temperatures the past week and multiple deep lows tracking up into
eastern Canada followed by gusty W/NW winds. Long term models are
showing a break in the pattern later in the week as temperatures go
from below normal at the start of the period, to above normal by the
end of the week.

It will be a mainly dry week as weak low pressure passes to the
south Tuesday night into Wednesday. Forecast area looks to be on the
northern periphery of some light precipitation. If the precipitation
shield were to get far enough north into inland zones, there is a
chance of some wet snow mixing in. Impacts are unlikely at this
time. There is the potential for a wetter, warmer system for the end
of the week as the vortex over eastern Canada lifts out. Rain
chances increase Friday into Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure exits to the east this evening. A warm front lifts
north of the terminals tonight followed by cold front passage Sunday
morning.

VFR through 00z. Rain develops after 00z from west to east with
ceilings lowering to MVFR, especially east of the NYC metro
terminals. The rain will continue through the early morning hours
before tapering off 08-11z. Brief IFR ceilings are possible across
Long Island and southern Connecticut terminals, and potentially in
the Lower Hudson Valley. Any lower conditions will quickly improve
to VFR 08-11z with VFR prevailing the remainder of the TAF period.

Winds will continue shifting to the SSW under 10 kt this evening.
SSW winds start increasing this evening with gusts around 20 kt
possible after 03z, especially near the coast. LLWS of 45-50 kt at 2
kft out of the SW is expected from NYC terminals on east from around
04-08z.

Winds will shift to the W Sunday morning behind the cold front,
becoming 20-25 kt with gusts 30-35 kt after 15z Sunday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments expected for flight categories tonight, mainly due to
timing of any MVFR ceilings.

Peak gusts 35-40 kt possible late Sunday morning and afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Afternoon: VFR. W winds 20-25 kt G30-35 kt.

Sunday Night-Monday: VFR. W-WNW winds 15-20 kt G25-30 kt.

Tuesday: VFR. W-WNW winds G15-20 kt possible in the morning.

Wednesday-Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions initially going into early this evening. Then
SW winds will increase to SCA levels across eventually all
waters by middle of this evening and thereafter.

For Sunday, after the cold front passage, tightening pressure
gradient will allow for higher winds to mix down to the surface.
Gale force winds expected to develop. The gales are expected to
continue through Sunday night across all waters and then likely
remain on the ocean Monday. For non-ocean waters, the winds may
not gust as high Monday, with forecast gusts closer to 30 kt.
There is the possibility of gales on non-ocean waters Monday
but frequency expected to just be occasional.

A small craft advisory remains in effect for the ocean zones and
South Shore Bays of Long Island from 6PM this evening until 6AM
Sunday. For the rest of the forecast waters, the small craft
advisory starts at 10PM this evening and continues until 6AM
Sunday. From 6AM Sunday to 6AM Monday, a gale warning is in
effect for all waters. For 6AM to 6PM Monday, just the ocean
zones are in a gale warning. Winds lower Monday night down to
SCA levels for eventually all waters.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected to return to all waters Tuesday,
then remaining through Thursday with high pressure largely in
control.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rain amounts generally under a half inch with showers through
tonight. No hydrologic issues expected.

There are no hydrologic concerns through the entire forecast
period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
     Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ345-350-353-
     355.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/DW
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW