416
FXUS61 KOKX 081448
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
948 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the west into Tuesday. The high
weakens and shifts offshore as a weak clipper low passes to the
north Tuesday night. A much stronger low will approach on
Wednesday, passing to the north Wednesday night into Thursday
and sending a cold front through the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Points:

* A quick shot of cold air to settle across the area today into
  tonight, leading to subfreezing daytime highs and wind chills
  in the single digits and teens at times.

Low pressure lifts northeast up into the Canadian Maritimes
today, while high pressure builds in from the west. Strong cold
advection will be accompanied by NW-N winds gusting up to 30
mph, with winds diminishing late this morning into this
afternoon. High pressure then builds into the area tonight with
clearing skies and diminishing winds.

Highs have already been reached today as temperatures will drop
into the 20s for most locations by daybreak, possibly a bit
colder across the interior. Highs are then expected to get no
higher than the mid to upper 20s this afternoon. Deviated from
the NBM for lows tonight and weighted in some MOS, which can
have a better handle with strong radiational cooling. The one
limiting factor could be a veil of high clouds that moves into
the area today. How quickly these clouds lift out of the area
tonight will be critical to the low temperature forecast. Right
now, expect lows to range from the single digits inland, to the
teens along the coast. Record lows are unlikely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points:

* Gradual warmup Tuesday into Wednesday, with highs likely in
  the 40s on Wednesday.

* Multiple clipper systems impact the area Tuesday night through
  Wednesday night with mainly light precipitation events. Best
  chance for some wintry weather will be northwest of NYC on
  Wednesday, but even these locations will likely go over to all
  rain. Minor accumulation possible inland.

A progressive upper flow will continue to send clipper systems
from western Canada SE across the country and into the area
during this time. The first system will be the weaker of the two
with a low chance for light rain and/or snow Tuesday night,
mainly across eastern areas. Temperatures will be at or above
freezing at the coast Tuesday night and likely rising with a
southerly flow. Not expecting any snow accumulation outside of a
dusting. Southerly winds Tuesday night will be gusty along the
coast (20-25 mph).

A more robust low pressure system tracking across the Midwest
Tuesday night and across the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday
will send warm advection precipitation into the area. Locations
north and west of the NYC will likely start off as snow or a
rain/snow mix, especially up into Orange and Putnam counties in
NY and western Passaic in NJ. However, with the more amplified
system, enough warm air is likely to advect into the interior
with a changeover to all rain likely in the afternoon. Liquid
equivalent amounts at this time are only expected to be up to an
tenth of an inch or so, possibly bit more across the interior.
With highs getting into the 40s, any accumulation at this time
looks to be minor. Low pressure passes to the north Wednesday
night, sending a cold front across the area. Conditions will dry
out with lows returning to normal levels. In addition, SW winds
on Wednesday will gusts up to 30 mph (highest at the coast),
before becoming westerly and diminishing some overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NBM was followed.

Key Points:

* Temperatures below normal and trending downward through the
  weekend.

* Another clipper low drags a cold front through the area Friday
  night with a chance of snow, possibly mixed with rain at the
  coast. This does not look like a significant winter weather
  event at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will build in from the west today and settle over the
terminals tonight.

VFR prevails.

N to NNW winds with gusts up to around 25 kt. Can not rule out a few
occasional gusts to near 30 kt. N winds begin to diminish this
afternoon, with gusts ending towards 20-21z as high pressure builds
in from the west. Winds fall below 10kt after dark and become light
and variable early Tuesday morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

An occasional gust to 30 kt can not be ruled through early afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday: VFR. SW gusts 15-20 kt late day/evening.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of rain/snow across
interior Lower Hudson Valley early. Then a chance of rain during the
afternoon and into the evening. S-SW gusts 20-25 kt possible.

Thursday: VFR. W gusts 20-25 kt.

Friday: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in any rain or snow showers late
in the day or at night. W gusts 15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Gusty NNW winds are bringing Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
conditions to all waters this morning, before diminishing this
afternoon as winds lighten. Sub SCA conditions are expected on
the non ocean waters by early to mid afternoon and the ocean by
early evening. High pressure builds across the waters tonight
into Tuesday morning.

A series of clipper systems will then impact the waters Tuesday
night through Thursday with gales possible on the ocean waters
Wednesday into Wednesday night and SCA elsewhere. There could
even be a short period of gales on the ocean Tuesday evening.
Friday should then feature sub advisory conditions on all
waters, but there is still a chance of 25kt gusts on the ocean.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DR/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...DW