625
FXUS61 KOKX 151941
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
341 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes since the last forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Aside from possible brief rain showers Thursday into early
Friday, mainly dry conditions in place for much of the work
week. Temperatures trend warmer for Wednesday compared to
previous day.

2) Cold front and associated showers forecast Thursday through
early Friday morning.

3) Prolonged chance of rain Saturday night through early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Our forecast region remains on the NE periphery of a mid level
ridge through midweek. A shortwave moves across well to the north
late Thursday into early Friday. A quasi-zonal WNW flow in the mid
levels takes shape Friday into Saturday. At the surface, high
pressure builds across through early Wednesday and then moves
offshore to the south thereafter Wednesday. This will be
followed by a cold front crossing through Thursday night into
early Friday. This will then be followed by more high pressure
Friday into Saturday.

Models exhibit good agreement on 850mb temperatures being a few
degrees warmer Wednesday afternoon compared to the previous
afternoon. While models indicate a slight decrease of 850mb
temperatures Thursday and more clouds, better low level mixing
should allow for temperatures to adiabatically warm just as
high as the previous day. The synoptic SW flow and warm air
advection pattern will make for warmer than normal days both
Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures for highs are more in the
70s to lower 80s range.

The humidity will be getting increasingly higher Wednesday and
Thursday as noted by the average 1000-850 mb mixing ratios depicted
by the forecast models for each afternoon.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
The cold front approaches Thursday and moves across late
Thursday night into early Friday morning. This will bring a
round of showers to the region. Went above NBM POPs as NAM is
showing near a half inch rainfall amounts and SREF is showing
probabilities of more than a hundredth of an inch of rain
getting to near 60 to 70 percent. NAM seems to be most
aggressive with the model solutions and with this higher
precipitation forecast are lower heights aloft and relatively
lower pressure at the surface. More forcing and also higher
PWATs are present within the NAM. This is something to monitor
for subsequent forecasts to see if the front gets stronger with
more precipitation and thereby more model solutions lean towards
the NAM. With the amount of uncertainty, did not include much
thunder yet as elevated instability parameter of Showalter
Indices showed mostly positive values averaging amongst the
different models and there is not much confidence on there being
sufficient vertical forcing at this current time. Did put in
slight chance north and west of NYC in advance of cold front and
with daytime instability and surface based CAPE potentially
getting to near 200 J/kg Thursday afternoon into early Thursday
evening where there was relatively more model agreement.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
More of an unsettled weather pattern takes shape for the second
half of the weekend into early next week. The ridge to the southwest
of the region in the mid levels will be getting more suppressed. The
region will be left with a quasi-zonal WNW flow in the mid levels.
Models indicate periodic shortwaves moving across the local region.
At the surface, high pressure moves to the east and out into the
Northern Atlantic late Saturday into Saturday night. A frontal
system approaches from the west Sunday and may very well linger
into early next week. Chances of showers return Saturday night
and continue through Tuesday next week. It will likely not be
raining the entire time but will probably be periodic. Daytime
highs are mostly in the upper 60s to lower 70s range with lows
at night mainly 50s to lower 60s with temperatures a little
warmer relatively within NYC. Prolonged low level easterly flow
is shown as well with low pressure generally south of the
region and high pressure generally to the north of the region.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR with high pressure remains in control through the TAF
period.

Light winds become mainly SE into this afternoon with speeds
likely remaining under 10 kt. SE-S winds diminish this evening,
becoming light and variable overnight. A light SW flow at 10 kt
or less develops Wednesday morning becoming more S through the
afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of wind shift to the SE this afternoon may be off by 1-2
hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday-Thursday: VFR.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR. Low probability of a shower.

Friday-Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR and showers
Saturday night.

Sunday: MVFR or lower possible in any showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure remains in control, building across tonight and
then will slowly slide south of the region Wednesday into
Wednesday night. The pressure gradient remains overall weak,
allowing for conditions to remain well below small craft
advisory thresholds.

The cold front passing through Thursday night into early Friday
is not expected to be too strong, so the sub-small craft
conditions continue Thursday through Friday. Conditions start
to ramp up Friday night into Saturday as high pressure starts to
build in from the north and low pressure deepens east of the
Canadian Maritimes. A frontal system approaches from the west
for the latter half of the weekend. Ocean seas build to near 3
to 4 ft. Winds become more easterly Friday night into the
weekend with gusts to near 20 kt, potentially up to near 25 kt
at times. SCA potential especially for the ocean increases
Friday night into the weekend.

Rip Currents...
Low rip current risk continues for the remainder of today. Tomorrow,
rip current risk will primarily be low through midday, but
eventually winds will increase enough out of the S/SW to increase
the rip current risk to moderate for all beaches except eastern
Suffolk county beaches. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected
on all south-facing Long Island beaches on Thursday, especially as
swell increases under stronger winds in the latter portion of the
day.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JM