031
FXUS61 KOKX 160821
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
421 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure gradually weakens and shifts farther east through
Tuesday as a stalled frontal boundary remains well to our south. The
boundary eventually lifts north as a warm front, moving through the
area sometime Wednesday. A cold front moves through the region
Thursday night. High pressure will then be in control Friday
through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Not much change with the surface features today. High pressure
continues to nose in from the northeast and may just shift/weaken
slightly. A stalled frontal boundary remains well offshore. Aloft,
heights look to rise slightly as shortwave ridging builds in.

Continues to be a tough precip forecast as Sunday seemed to
overperform a bit. There is plenty of moisture around in the low
levels, specifically for western LI, NYC and northeast NJ which is
farther away from the high pressure influence. The question just
remains if there is enough lift around again today. Weak convergence
in the low levels may be enough for light rain so have kept slight
chances in the forecast.

Plenty of clouds around again today, with some breaks of sun
possible for eastern CT once again. Given very little change in
flow, cloud cover and airmass today, blended in Sunday`s observed
highs with NBM and 10th percentile NBM highs. This gave just a few
degrees warmer than Sunday. Stuck with straight NBM for lows tonight
with radiational cooling not expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure weakens further on Tuesday and the flow becomes more
southeasterly. Additionally, some shortwave energy approaches aloft.
With plenty of moisture still around this will allow for shower
activity, mainly north and west of NYC. Given clouds and potential
showers went with the cooler side of NBM guidance for highs.

Some uncertainty as we head into Wednesday morning with an
approaching warm front and potential wave of low pressure. Pwats
surge Wednesday morning, with new 00z guidance a tad lower but
still well above average for this time of year, about 2 inches.
Guidance has also come in with a less potent shortwave and less
QPF than runs 24 hours ago. This is good news for any sort of
heavy rainfall threat, but heavier downpours with any showers
can not be ruled out. It looks like there is then potential for
another shortwave to approach later in the afternoon/evening.
This could trigger more showers and thunderstorms, especially
given the destabilization that is expected to take place during
the day. It is worth noting that the CSU machine learning severe
outlook product does have western portions of our area outlined
in a 5% risk for damaging winds.

With the warm front pushing through, a deep W/SW flow and some
clearing, temperatures will likely be back up in the 80s across the
area. Although we may be clear Wednesday night, the moist
airmass will likely keep temperatures from dropping below the
upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Timing of a cold frontal passage through the region remains
consistent from previous forecasts, with the passage expected
Thursday night. An amplifying shortwave moves out of the upper
Midwest Thursday and tracks across the region Thursday night into
Friday morning. And a cold front moves through the region Thursday
night. With a warm and humid airmass in place for Thursday, and a
vigorous vort max passing mainly to the north, showers and
thunderstorms will become likely across the the lower Hudson Valley
and into northeastern New Jersey Thursday afternoon. Surface CAPE
increases to 1500 to around 2000 J/kg by late Thursday afternoon
with shear 25 to 30kt. And atmospheric profiles show inverted V with
a low level jet. Strong to locally severe thunderstorms will be
possible late day into the early evening across these areas with
damaging winds the main threat, and the Storm Prediction Center
continues to highlight a 15% outlook for severe weather into Western
Orange county, and into portions of western northeast New Jersey.
Brief periods of heavy rainfall will also be possible with the
storms, however, the threat of flooding is expected to be minimal
with the quick movement of the storms and no training of cells
expected.

Otherwise, the remainder of the extended period will be generally
quiet, except for a slight chance of thunderstorms inland Sunday
afternoon as a surface trough develops and becomes the focus for
lift. Temperatures will be above average Thursday into the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak ridge of high pressure remains across the terminals through
tonight, while a stationary front, with waves of low pressure along
it, remains to the south.

Low confidence forecast through this evening with the flight
categories and timing of changes.

MVFR, with VFR across the lower Hudson Valley and much of coastal
Connecticut, except IFR at KGON. Conditions across coastal
Connecticut are expected to lower to MVFR by late morning. Little
improvement is expected, with perhaps a brief period of VFR this
morning. Then conditions likely lower to IFR this evening. Periods
of drizzle will be possible through the overnight.

Light NE to E winds, generally less then 10kt continue through the
forecast period. Winds may back more to the ESE for a time Monday
afternoon, especially near the coast.

    NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low confidence with timing and flight categories through this
evening.

Low chance for IFR ceilings early this morning. Amendments likely
for flight category changes through this evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Late tonight: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible.

Tuesday: MVFR-IFR. A chance of showers, mainly at night.

Wednesday: Chance of IFR in the morning, otherwise VFR. A chance of
showers and thunderstorms with MVFR.

Thursday: VFR. Chance of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms
with MVFR.

Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient will result in winds and waves remaining
below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Wednesday night.

Ocean seas east of Moriches Inlet may briefly reach SCA levels
Thursday evening as southwest winds ahead of a cold front increase.
Otherwise winds and seas will remain below advisory levels across
the forecast waters Thursday through Friday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
At this time there are no hydrologic concerns through the
Wednesday night.

Locally heavy downpours will be possible in any thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon into the evening across portions of the lower
Hudson Valley and into northeastern New Jersey with a moisture laden
atmosphere in place and warm cloud processes dominating. However,
the risk of flooding will be mitigated by the speed of any cells and
lack of a cells training.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Rip current risk remains at moderate for today and Tuesday. While
winds will be mainly parallel to the coast, the resultant 4 ft 8s
wave will be enough for a moderate risk. The winds become a bit more
southeasterly on Tuesday and with the onshore component expecting
moderate again.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MET/JT
HYDROLOGY...MET/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JT