818
FXUS61 KOKX 281815
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
215 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves offshore tonight as a cold front approaches.
The cold front will move across the area Friday afternoon and
evening. High pressure returns this weekend and will remain in
control through the middle of next week. A frontal system then
approaches next Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Clouds will gradually increase this afternoon and evening.
Surface high pressure will gradually push south and east of
the area as a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes
region. Southerly flow will also continue increasing with gusts
20-25 mph possible into the evening, strongest near the coast.
Amplified upper trough will swing towards the area tonight.
Southerly flow will help increase moisture, especially across
Long Island and southern Connecticut. Warm advection in
combination with shortwave energy may induce shower development
across these areas, especially late tonight into early Friday
morning. Elevated CAPE looks marginal, but enough to include
mention of a rumble of thunder, especially with the cold pocket
aloft associated with the upper trough.

The cold front will begin moving into the area Friday morning, but
may slow down in the afternoon as the upper trough continues
to amplify aloft. While an isolated shower remains possible
along and west of the Hudson River, most convection that
develops with the front should reside across Long Island and
southern Connecticut. 12z CAMs show this potential well with
disagreement among intensity and exact location with some CAMs
signaling the east end of Long Island and far southeast CT.
Probabilities mainly remain in the chance category across these
areas. This is also the zone where the greatest instability
should reside (~1000 J/kg) and slightly higher moisture levels.
Shear is weak which will limit organization and intensity of
afternoon convection, but small hail and some gusty winds remain
possible. Brief heavy downpours possible, but no significant
impacts anticipated. It is entirely possible areas along the
Hudson River on westward (NYC metro, NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley)
see little to no shower activity on Friday.

Highs will range from the middle 70s inland to the upper 70s/around
80 closer to the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front will continue working its way east Friday evening,
but likely will be slow to clear southeast CT and the east end of
Long Island. Some lingering clouds and potentially a shower for
these locations remain possible few hours after sunset, but the
front should move offshore mid to late evening.

A closed upper low over northern New England and southeast Canada
will gradually shift eastward through Saturday night. Sprawling
high pressure will build over the northeast Friday night into
Saturday and remain in place Saturday night. The atmosphere
dries out behind the front, but cyclonic flow aloft through
Saturday may develop a few to scattered flat stratocu clouds in
the afternoon/early evening. Dew points will quickly drop behind
the cold front passage with much of the area falling into the
40s and low 50s by day break Saturday. Dew points should fall
further on Saturday with much of the area in the middle 40s.
Temperatures Friday night and Saturday night are expected to
fall into the upper 40s and lower 50s inland and middle to upper
50s elsewhere. The NYC metro may struggle to fall below 60s
degrees both nights. Daytime highs on Saturday will be a few
degrees below normal in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Points:

* Dry and cool with temperatures resembling normals for mid-
  September.

* Chances for showers Thursday with an approaching cold front.

With high pressure remaining entrenched over the region Sunday
through Wednesday dry and cool weather is expected. The high
moves off the New England and Mid Atlantic coast Wednesday
night into Thursday as a cold front slowly approaches, with the
associated weak low tracking slowly through the Great Lakes
region. The trend has been for a delay in the timing of the high
moving off the coast, and the front approaching, as a Rex block
remains over the western states and into the western Atlantic,
with a weak trough over the eastern states, evolving into a
closed, and potentially cutoff, low, with little movement. The
surface low over the Great Lakes is weakening as the low moves
into the downstream ridge. The low developing over Florida early
next week now remains well south, and tracks northeast into the
Atlantic into Thursday as the upper ridge and surface high
remain in place.

Only changes to the NBM was for cooler overnight lows Sunday night
through Wednesday night, especially across the normally cooler
locations in the interior, and the Pine Barrens of eastern Long
Island, with nearly clear skies and light winds each night. For the
lows used a blend of the deterministic and 25th percentile, which
gives lows closer to MOS guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure remains centered to our east into this evening
with a trough of low pressure moving into the terminals late
tonight into Friday morning. A cold front follows later in the
day Friday.

VFR through this evening. MVFR possible in showers late tonight into
the Friday morning push east of the city terminals. Can`t rule out
thunder here either, but probability too low to include in TAFs.

S-SW flow 10 to 15 kt. Some gusts 15-25 kt, mainly for the metro
terminals. Winds diminish this evening.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Chance of a sea breeze temporarily shifting winds SE at KEWR between
approx 19-21z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible with a chance of showers
and isolated thunderstorms mainly east of the city terminals.

Saturday through Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Occasional gusts up to 25 kt are possible on the ocean west
of Fire Island Inlet due to increasing S flow late this
afternoon and evening. Waves may also build to around 4 ft.
Otherwise, conditions will remain below SCA levels through early
next week with a weak pressure gradient.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The risk of rip currents remains moderate into this evening.

A moderate risk of rip currents continues into Friday with an
incoming wind wave of 3-4 ft at around 5 seconds. The risk may
lower to low during the afternoon at the NYC, southern Nassau
County, and Southwestern Suffolk beaches as wind waves lower.

There will be a low risk at the ocean beaches Saturday with 2 foot
wind waves at less than 5 seconds.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/MET
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...DS/MET
HYDROLOGY...DS/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...