238
FXUS61 KOKX 141512
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1112 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal wave will pass to the south today. High pressure
builds in from the northeast tonight into Sunday. Weak high
pressure will then remain in place through at least Monday. A
nearly stationary front remains Tuesday with a wave of low
pressure affecting the region. The front moves north as a warm
front Tuesday night, passing north during Wednesday. A cold
front moves through the region Thursday night. High pressure
builds in Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Steadier rains along the south shore of eastern LI will pass to
the east shortly. KJFK saw over half inch in hour with 0.3 to
0.4 at other ob sites across LI.

A frontal wave to the south of LI this morning will continue to
track to the east and rain will decrease in coverage and
intensity. An additional 0.1 to 0.2 is possible through this
afternoon in what will mainly be light rain.

High pressure will nose in from the northeast behind the low
tonight as drier air filters in, PoPs decrease, but still
remain slight chance/chance through the night.

NBM was followed for temperatures giving highs in the 60s and lows
in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure continues to build in from the northeast on Sunday.
PoPs continue to decrease with a dry day expected for the most part,
especially for eastern Long Island and eastern CT. Confidence in
also increasing in some breaks of sun for these eastern areas and
have lowered sky cover just a bit. Given this, also upped
temperatures a few degrees in these areas. Otherwise NBM was
followed for temps through this time period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A nearly stationary front remains south of the region Tuesday as
another wave of low pressure moves along the boundary with a chance
of showers by late day. With the approach of a trough and surface
low moving through the upper Midwest and into southern Canada
Tuesday night into Wednesday, the front is expected to beginning
moving to the north as a warm front, and likely pass to the north
during Wednesday. A cold front approaching during Thursday and
passes through the area Thursday night. While there will be slight
to chance probabilities of rainfall Tuesday into Wednesday night,
the best chances for rainfall will be with the cold front
approaching during the day Thursday, and currently forecast to pass
through the region Thursday night. Precipitable water values
increase to around 1.75 inches, and there will be surface based and
elevated CAPE in place. With a warm and unstable airmass ahead of
the front, there is the potential for thunderstorms, some of which
may produce briefly heavy rainfall.
At this time the storms will be moving rather quickly, and training
is not expected, so hydrologic impacts are not expected. An
amplifying ridge across the central United States Thursday night
approaches for Friday and into the beginning of next weekend. With
no targets of opportunity have used the deterministic NBM through
the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A stationary front remains south of the area as a weak low
moves along the boundary through today. High pressure builds
into the region from the northeast late tonight into early
Sunday morning.

Mainly MVFR to start with a few terminals even still VFR,
though ceilings generally lower toward IFR into early afternoon
with occasional light rain through the day. Rain is expected to
taper late in the day into this evening, but IFR conds persist.
Conditions begin to improve overnight, but remain at least MVFR
with low cigs thru Sunday morning.

Winds NE 10 to 14kt through today, diminishing a few kts this
evening.

    NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely for changing flight categories into this
afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday - Monday: Slight chance of showers, mainly from the New
York City terminals and west, with MVFR to IFR possible at
times. Otherwise VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, slight chance of showers late day into the
night, with a chance of MVFR to IFR.

Wednesday: Mostly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms with a
period of sub-VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
NW winds across the waters this morning have ramped up quicker
and stronger. Seeing wind gusts up to around 25 kt at some of
the buoys across LI Sound and the ocean waters. Thus, have
issued a SCA for LI Sound until 4 pm and the ocean waters start
time was moved up to this morning.

Otherwise, an easterly wind will bring waves to 5 ft on the
ocean waters. Stuck closer to WaveWatch as NWPS seemed a bit low
given a sustained winds at 15-20 kt for several hours. SCA up
through tonight on the ocean. Otherwise, sub SCA conditions
expected through Monday night.

Winds and seas remain below SCA levels across the forecast waters
Tuesday through Thursday. With the approach of a cold front
Thursday, passing through the waters Thursday night, southwest to
west winds will be increasing. By later Thursday night wind gusts on
the ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet  may approach SCA levels,
and ocean seas may build to near 5 feet.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected Tuesday through the end of the
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Sticking with moderate risk of rip currents for ocean beaches today.
Some uncertainty in exact strength and direction of winds which in
turn will affect wave heights and direction. If winds end up more
northerly than forecast, the rip current activity will likely be
lower and the risk may be updated during the day.

Winds will be more easterly on Sunday an around 10 kt. An E wave
component around 4 ft at 6s will result in a low risk of rip current
activity.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/JT
NEAR TERM...JT/DW
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DR/MET
MARINE...MET/JT
HYDROLOGY...MET/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...