444
FXUS61 KOKX 052147
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
447 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak low pressure trough extending north from low
pressure moving off the southern Mid Atlantic coast will impact
the area mainly late tonight into Saturday morning. Weak high
pressure will then be over the area Saturday night into Sunday.
A strong cold front will move through Sunday night. High
pressure builds from the west Monday, remaining in control
through Tuesday. A couple of low pressure systems pass to the
north and may impact the area from the middle to late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Main update was to add a slight chance for flurries across the
eastern 2/3 of the forecast area for the next few hours as
there are some light returns seen on radar as well as some
observers noting flurries moving through.

High pressure shifts offshore this evening with light return flow
developing. As a weak low pressure system passes well to the south
and another shortwave passes well to the north, an inverted trough
the connected these two systems develops over the area tonight.
Given the weak southerly flow and increase in low level moisture,
this may result in very light precipitation this evening through
early Saturday morning.

The most difficult aspect to this forecast is the p-type if this
light precipitation develops. Given the previously cold air still
over the area, the surface will likely be below freezing for much if
not all of the area initially. The limited vertical extent of the
moisture profile brings into question if enough ice nuclei will
exist to result in snow, otherwise a freezing drizzle is more
likely. The thought process now is that the influence of coastal
convergence may enhance lift just enough to produce enough ice
nuclei resulting in flurries or a light snow. This may not encompass
the entire area and it`s very possible that while some areas see
light snow or flurries, other areas may see more of a freezing
drizzle or plain drizzle depending on the surface temperature.

Surface temperatures along the immediate south coast, mainly Long
Island and southern NYC may slightly warm enough overnight to switch
any frozen precip to freezing drizzle to plain drizzle by morning,
but this remains uncertain. For any areas where light snow becomes
more dominant, a dusting or a light coating of snow is possible on
cooler/grassy surfaces. If freezing drizzle develops, anything below
freezing will be subject to a glaze of ice, including any untreated
roadways. An SPS is issued for mainly coastal areas to reflect the
possibility of hazardous conditions developing overnight due to any
freezing drizzle. If a more persistent area of freezing drizzle
develops, a short-fused Winter Weather Advisory may be issued.

Low temperatures expected to be in the 20s much of the area, though
the immediate coast may remain in the low 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Weak high pressure builds in from the west Saturday afternoon
through Sunday morning resulting in generally dry conditions. Temps
after precip ends on Sat will rise to the upper 30s/lower 40s,
then fall back once again to the 20s and lower 30s. With no
change in air mass for Sunday high temps should once again reach
the upper 30s/lower 40s in most spots.

Cold fropa Sunday night will be preceded by a chance of snow
showers mainly inland and out east. Fropa should take place
after midnight, with colder air starting to coming in on a
gusty NW flow, and lows from the upper teens well inland to the
20s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
* Some of the coldest air of the season so far moves in early next
  week. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday likely in the upper 20
  and 30s region-wide, with morning wind chills in the single digits
  and teens.

Arctic high pressure builds in from the west Monday, with the center
moving overhead Monday night into Tuesday morning. This will usher
some of the coldest air thus far this winter season. 850 mb
temperatures in the -12 to -18 C range across the forecast area
Monday will translate to highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s, with
much of the forecast area not climbing above the freezing point (32
degrees). Low temperatures Monday night into Tuesday morning could
potentially be a few degrees colder depending on how clear the skies
are and how calm the winds are for optimal radiational cooling.
Right now, stuck with the NBM, which is giving lows in the single
digits across northern portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, teens
for most other places, and 20s in NYC.

The high pushes off the Northeast Coast Tuesday, allowing a warm
front to approach from the southwest and low pressure to move across
the Great Lakes and pass north of the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. Therefore, dry conditions are in store from
Monday through Tuesday, with just a slight chance of precipitation
for portions of the forecast area Tuesday night. The warm front may
lift north during the day Wednesday as another fast moving low
pressure system approaches from the west, farther south than the
previous one. This too is expected to pass north, rounding the base
of the upper trough that is in place Wednesday night. This may give
the region a better chance for precipitation Wednesday into
Thursday, but it looks to be light. The associated cold front looks
to push through Wednesday night, allowing high pressure to build in
for Thursday. Another quick moving system approaches from the west
late in the week, but there is a great deal of uncertainty among the
models as to the track and strength of the low.

Warmer, but still well below normal temperatures expected for
Wednesday, with highs in the upper 20s to around 40 across the area
(warmer for coastal areas). Near normal temperatures on Wednesday
with the warm frontal passage, but then slightly cooler for Thursday
with the cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A surface trough shifts through the terminals late tonight, followed
by weak high pressure for Saturday.

Mainly MVFR for the rest of today into tonight. A stray flurry
or light snow shower possible before a better chance of light
snow occurs towards midnight tonight, and remaining possible
through part of the morning push. Brief IFR still possible late
tonight through the morning push. Improvement to VFR late Sat
morning/early aftn.

Light easterly component winds today followed by light and
variable winds tonight. WSW winds below 10kt for Saturday aftn.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Brief flurries/light snow possible this afternoon and evening
before chances increase toward midnight tonight. Still a low
chance of -FZRA or -FZDZ, but confidence is not high enough to
include in the TAF at this time.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR and light rain/snow mix at
night.

Monday and Tuesday: VFR. NW-N gusts 20-25kt Monday morning.

Wednesday: Chance of MVFR and rain showers. S-SW gusts 20-25kt
possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions through the weekend.

SCA conditions are possible through much of next week beginning
Monday as multiple low pressure systems could impact the area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected at this time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels are running high around the times of high tide due
to yesterday`s full moon, with departures of 1 ft or less
needed to reach minor flood thresholds today and Saturday.
Latest combo of bias-corrected ETSS, STOFS, and NYHOPS
ensemble 50th percentile guidance has trended upward slightly,
and indicates that water levels may get close to minor flood
thresholds with the high tide late this morning in isolated
spots along the SW CT coastline. Due to the isolated nature have
not issued a statement.

Water levels may touch minor flood thresholds with the Saturday
morning late morning/midday high tide cycle in spots along the
back bays of Nassau and Queens, tidal waterways of NE NJ, the
SW CT coastline, and at Shinnecock and Montauk out east.
A coastal flood statement may eventually be issued to
address this.

&&

.CLIMATE...
High temps today may also be close to daily record low maxes at
KEWR/KLGA/KJFK.

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

KEWR: 31/2002
KBDR: 28/2002
KNYC: 22/1886
KLGA: 32/2002
KJFK: 33/2007
KISP: 30/2002

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/MW
NEAR TERM...JP/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JP/MW
HYDROLOGY...JP/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...