179
FXUS61 KOKX 021139
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
639 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area today moves offshore tonight into
Monday. Weak low pressure approaches from the south Monday ahead
of a fast moving cold front passage Monday night. High pressure
returns Tuesday into Wednesday. A quick passing low moves through
Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure builds in Thursday
night and moves offshore Friday. Another low may impact the
area next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure builds over the region today, and begins
to move offshore late in the day. Winds will be light westerly
with high thin clouds over the region. Temperatures will be
seasonably cool with highs in the middle to upper 50s. A few
locations in the urban corridor of NE NJ may touch 60 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A near zonal flow across much of the country will lead to quick
moving systems across the region. Surface high pressure and a
weak upper ridge move offshore tonight allowing an upper low and
weak surface low over the southeastern states to move along the
coast, with surface troughiness to develop into the region into
Monday. Then a fast moving trough across Canada approaches with
with a cold passing through the region Monday night. With the
systems nearly phased there will be chances for light rain by
Monday afternoon and continuing into Monday evening. Guidance
remains in good agreement with these two systems. With the fast
flow dry weather returns by late Monday night as weak ridging
moves toward the east coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A very progressive pattern sets up in the long term with a series
of high and low pressure systems passing by through Tuesday into
next weekend.

By Tuesday, high pressure will be building in from the west, but
with the departing low pressure to the east, gusty NW flow can be
expected for much of the day. Dry conditions will persist as the
high pressure shifts overhead Tuesday night. By Wednesday morning,
another area of low pressure develops to the NW and slides north of
the area by Wednesday night. Much of the day Wednesday is expected
to be dry with increasing chances for showers toward evening and
into Wednesday night.

The low quickly moves through by Thursday morning with another day
of gusty NW flow expected as high pressure builds in once again from
the west. High pressure settles over the area late Thursday night
and into Friday morning with once again another low pressure system
approaching from the Great Lakes region. The low pushes a cold front
through the area with a chance of showers Friday night into
Saturday. Another pair of successive high and low pressure systems
may impact the area Saturday and Sunday respectively.

Regarding temperatures, highs each day Tuesday through Saturday will
be fairly seasonable with temperatures generally in the upper 50s to
possibly lower 60s. The coolest days will be Thursday and
Friday with gusty NW flow advecting in cooler air where the
highs are expected to be in the lower to middle 50s. Lows
follow a similar pattern with temperatures each night being in
the mid to upper 30s inland to the upper 40s along the coast.
The exception is Thursday night where cooler temperatures across
the area will mean lows in the 30s for much of the area, to near
40 along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure builds over the terminals through the TAF period.
Weak low pressure approaches from the south Monday morning.

VFR.

Light NW or light and variable winds this morning shift more to
the W then SW through the day today. Coastal terminals become
more S after 18Z with local sea breezes possible. Exact timing
of sea breezes may be off +/- an hour or two. Light and variable
winds return Sunday night.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments are expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday: MVFR or lower possible in showers in the afternoon and
night.

Tuesday: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt.

Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt in the morning.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
With seas subsiding to below 5 feet and wind gusts generally
below 25 kt, the SCA east of Fire Island Inlet was cancelled.
However, occasional gusts south of Montauk Point will be near 25
kt through the overnight. Small craft conditions continue
through Tuesday with winds and gusts beginning to diminish
across the western waters late in the day. And by late Tuesday
night gusts are expected to have fallen below 25 kt across all
the forecast waters, with ocean seas subsiding below 5 feet.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters for much of late
Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon, but winds and waves
increase once again to near SCA on the ocean by Wednesday night
and remain into Thursday, with the possibility of near gale
gusts for a few hours. And, gusts will be near SCA levels on
the non ocean waters late Wednesday night into Thursday.
Thursday night sub SCA conditions return on all the waters as
high pressure builds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...MET/MW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...MET