627
FXUS61 KOKX 041424
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1024 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the region through early next
week. A cold front will then approach Tuesday night into
Wednesday, then move across the area late Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Strong high pressure will follow from the west
Thursday through next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Updated forecast for current temperature trends which diurnally,
seem to fit the NBM 90th percentile pretty well. This was used
for the high temperature forecast along with local adjustments
upward. Dewpoints were updated with recent LAMP guidance. Sea
breezes will keep coastal locations a little cooler as they
develop late this morning into this afternoon.

Deep-layered ridging through the period with high pressure
providing for a mostly clear sky through the period. High
temperatures will be above normal this afternoon. NBM 90th
percentile with minor local adjustments was used for the high
temperature forecast considering 16-17C at 900mb. Highs mostly
around 80 to 84 degrees with more mid 80s in Northeast NJ and
mainly upper 70s along the southern shorelines, but short of
any records which are several degrees higher than forecast. Used
a blend of MAV/MET MOS for low temperatures across the areas
that typically see the strongest radiational cooling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Much of the same as a high pressure ridge holds strong, but breaking
down a little on Monday. Dry with little in the way of cloud cover
through the entire period, although there could be an increase of
clouds late Monday night as well as patchy fog. High temperatures
remain above normal for both Sunday and Monday. NBM with minor
adjustments was used again for highs, and leaned towards MAV/MET MOS
for areas of stronger radiational cooling.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NBM was followed no changes.

Key Points:

* High pressure remains in place Tuesday with dry conditions.

* A cold front approaches Tuesday night and early Wednesday, moving
  across the area late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Rain showers
  will be likely with the passage of the cold front.

* High pressure returns Thursday and remains over the area into
  next weekend.

* The warmest day of the long term will be Tuesday with highs in the
  middle and upper 70s to lower 80s. This will be a good 5-10
  degrees above normal. Temperatures will be closer to normal or
  below normal for the remainder of the long term. Highs on Wednesday
  will be in the middle and upper 60s to lower 70s. Thursday will be
  the coolest day of the week, with highs in the upper 50s and lower
  60s. Temperatures then gradually warm back into the middle and
  upper 60s and lower 70s for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR as high pressure remains over the area.

A light W/NW flow becomes W by late morning. Then S-SW sea
breezes close to 10 kt should develop along the CT coast during
late morning, then at KJFK/KISP by 18Z and the rest of the NYC
metros in the late day hours. Winds become light and variable
once again after sunset, taking on more of a W or NW direction
early Sunday morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday through Tuesday: VFR.

Tuesday night and Wednesday: MVFR with showers likely. NW winds G15-
20kt on Wed, becoming N late in the afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the waters through Monday night will provide
for a weak pressure gradient and help keep conditions below
advisory criteria. Winds pick up a little on Tuesday, but winds
and waves will remain below SCA levels. The next chance of SCA
conditions return Wednesday and/or Thursday with the passage of
a cold front.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues expected through early next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC/JM
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BC/MET
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC