862
FXUS61 KOKX 100833
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
433 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot weather continues today, but relief is in sight later
this week.

2) Showers and thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon
and evening. The western half of the area is in a Marginal Risk
for both severe weather and excessive rainfall.

3) Minor coastal flooding possible for some areas during the middle
of this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A warm front will bring another round of warm, humid air into
the area today with highs in the 80s and 90s. Heat indices will
range from 95 to 100 in the heat advisory. Elsewhere, heat
indices are anticipated to stay in the lower 90s.

A cold frontal passage tngt will drop the humidity a little for
Tue. It will still be hot with highs in the 80s to around 90,
but heat indices should remain blw 95 with the drier air. Less
hot on Wed, as the entire area may stay blw 90 for the first
time since the 5th, then much cooler by the end of the week
into the weekend with highs dropping blw climo by Fri.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
After a relatively cool start to the day, instability will
recharge this aftn in the wake of the warm front. Falling
heights would suggest developing shwrs and tstms this aftn and
eve across the area. The NAM and HRRR however have backed off a
bit on coverage. This looks like it is possibly due to
convective debris and subsidence from decaying activity over
cntrl PA. Not totally convinced that this will have the impact
modeled, and both the ECMWF and GFS have activity developing
over the wrn portion of the area by 00Z. This times up with the
convective wave over swrn MI, which is tracking ewd around
25-30kt based on stlt, reaching the area. As a result, did not
downgrade the NBM pops which bring in likely by 00Z wrn areas.

The NAM convective parameters are not as impressive as previous
model runs, but this may be tied to the dissipating convection
over PA. With the area warm sectored and a lingering trof, the
area will be in a favorable zone for severe into the eve. With
pwats around 2, an isold flash flood risk remains, particularly
NJ zones where hourly ffg is close to a half inch in spots and
three hourly around an inch.

After today, there will be additional chances for shwrs and
tstms thru the week, as WNW flow aloft brings multiple vorts
thru. Timing of these features is very low confidence, with the
NBM struggling to keep up with the daily variations in the
models.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Astronomical tides will increase with an approaching new moon on
Wednesday. Winds don`t appear to be much of a factor with the
evening/nighttime high tide cycles tonight through Wednesday night
when minor flooding would be possible. A blend of 50th percentile
NAEFS-based PETSS and NYHOPS seemed reasonable given recent trends.
Flooding is therefore not anticipated tonight, but levels should
come close to minor benchmarks for the south shore bays of Nassau
County and Queens as well as Southern Fairfield County. With the
astronomical tide a little higher Tuesday night, a Coastal Flood
Statement could be needed for these areas. A better chance of an
advisory would be during Wednesday night for these spots as flooding
would be more widespread, and other spots including parts of NY
Harbor and more of Western LI Sound could reach minor benchmarks as
well.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A warm front lifts north of the terminals today. A surface
trough then likely moves through late day into the evening.

Mainly VFR. PROB30s remain for a chance for MVFR in potential
showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon into early
evening. A few showers are still possible thereafter until
around midnight or so.

N to NE or light and variable winds expected through the
morning push. Southerly flow develops thereafter, becoming more
SSW-SW in the afternoon and evening, increasing 9-12 kt. A light
westerly flow follows for the overnight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

A light SE to S flow could prevail from approx 12-17z.
Amendments possible for PROB30 TSRA timing.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Late tonight: VFR.

Tuesday-Wednesday: VFR.

Wednesday Night-Thursday: Chance of showers and thunderstorms
and MVFR. W gusts 15-20 kt possible on Thursday.

Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels this
week.

Rip Currents: Waves around 2 ft this week and winds generally
10kt or less will likely keep the rip risk low thru Tue.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for CTZ009-010.
NY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ069>075-078-
     080-176>179.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$