152
FXUS61 KOKX 041433
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1033 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased rain chances for today into this evening.

Issued Small Craft Advisory for the ocean waters into this
evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) No significant impacts expected from possible showers this
afternoon and evening.

2) Dry thereafter with coolest conditions Tuesday into
Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure will shift into the Canadian Maritimes today. An
amplified upper trough will dig down into the Great Lakes region,
sending a cold front toward the area. The upper trough and its
associated shortwave energy will interact with the coastal
front/baroclinic zone just south of the area to develop a weak
wave of low pressure this afternoon into tonight. The low should
develop a few showers across the area, mainly this afternoon
and evening. There is some concern that lingering surface
ridging/dry air may limit shower development, especially inland.
Overall this will be a high PoP/low QPF forecast, with the
greatest likelihood of showers in the NYC metro area and closer
to the coast, and chance PoP well north/west. Rainfall amounts
will be light, with generally a few hundredths of an inch well
inland to a tenth or two of an inch most elsewhere, and some
amts closer to 1/2 inch across eastern Long Island.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
High pressure dominates the weather pattern through the rest of
the forecast period with dry weather expected. Monday may be a
bit breezy as the high builds into the area and temperatures
should end up close to normal. The coolest airmass of this fall
will advect into the area Monday night into Tuesday and then
remain in place into Wednesday. Lows Monday night will fall into
the 40s for the most part with the coolest readings well
inland. The NYC metro may remain right around 50. The coldest
night may end up being Tuesday night as high pressure settles
overhead. Interior locations could fall into the mid/upper 30s,
especially if skies remain clear and winds light. It`s still a
few days out, but would need to watch for frost potential in
these areas. Temperatures will moderate closer to normal
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will will retreat to the northeast today, while
weak low pressure passes to the south and east this afternoon
into tonight.

E-NE winds increase to 10-15 kt with occasional gusts up to 20
kt at the coastal terminals for the remainder of the morning.
Winds should be a bit weaker for inland terminals. Winds will
then become primarily E before backing to the NE toward evening,
eventually more N tonight as low pressure passes to the east.

MVFR ceilings should develop at coastal terminals this
afternoon and early evening with light rain. The lower Hudson
Valley and CT terminals should remain VFR. Visibilities during
the rain could briefly lower to MVFR. VFR will then prevail
overnight tonight into Monday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Confidence continues to increase ceilings will remain above 2kft
this afternoon and evening. Amendments are possible for flight
category changes during this time frame.

Start time of gusts Monday may be off by 1-3 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday: VFR. NW winds 15G20-25kt in the afternoon and evening.
A few gusts up to 30 kt possible.

Tuesday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt mainly E of KBDR/KISP.

Wednesday and Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Issued SCA for the ocean waters into this evening as seas at
44065/44025 are running at least 1 ft above forecast.

Easterly winds today will likely be strongest this morning
before weakening slowly tonight and backing more NE to N.
There could be some gusts to 25 kt on the ocean waters.

Another chance for advisory conditions will come Mon afternoon
and night behind the passage of a cold front. Still thinking
that advisory conditions likely meet advisory thresholds over
most of the waters, but models have trended a little weaker with
winds over past couple of days. With this in consideration,
plus it being a late 3rd period start, have collaborated with
WFO BOX to hold off on SCA issuance for that time frame.

Winds should subside Tue morning, leading to relatively tranquil
conditions through Thu.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC/Goodman
AVIATION...DS/DW
MARINE...JC/Goodman