404
FXUS61 KOKX 250302
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1002 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves off the Mid Atlantic coast overnight into
Tuesday. A warm front will then lift north through the waters
Tuesday night, followed by a cold front Wednesday night. The
area will then remain in between strong low pressure to the
north and strong high pressure to the south and west from
Thanksgiving Day through early Saturday. The high will build in
for much of the weekend. A cold front may impact the area toward
the end of the weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A 1025 sfc high over the Mid Atlantic will slide off the coast
overnight, while its trailing upper level ridge approaches. Bkn
high/mid level clouds prevail as they spill over the upper
ridge axis over wrn PA and the OH Valley. Temps bottom out on
the earlier side with diminished winds and mostly clear skies
giving way to high clouds, otherwise temperatures level off
overnight and may actually rise a few degrees late. Lows are a
colder GFS/NAM MOS blend, ranging from 25-30 well inland and
across the Long Island Pine Barrens, to near 40 in NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The upper ridge should pass east early Tue AM, followed by a
mid level shortwave trough approaching from the OH Valley. Light
overrunning rainfall ahead of the trough and a leading warm
front should arrive by late day from the NYC metro area west,
then overspread the rest of the area Tue evening. A period of
moderate rainfall expected as a 50-kt S-SW LLJ transports
moisture and provides lift/convergence and some meager
instability mostly below the freezing level. Because the
instability will be limited to lower levels, have removed
mention of thunder though there could still be a convective
aspect to the precip at its peak via some meager H8-5
instability.

Showery precip should continue at times in the warm sector Wed
into Wed evening, then as vertically stacked low pressure crosses
the upper Great Lakes, a trailing cold front will move across
late Wed night, with precip ending and W winds picking up.

Temps daytime Tue will rise into the lower/mid 50s, then only
fall back slightly into the 40s Tue night. Highs in the warm
sector on Wed should reach the lower 60s in many spots before
sharply falling off late Wed night to the 30s and lower 40s
after cold fropa.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Points:

* Windy conditions looking more likely Thanksgiving Day through
  Friday. Possibility for wind gusts 30-35 mph Thanksgiving Day,
  and 35-40 mph with isolated gusts up to 45 mph on Friday.

* Colder than normal temperatures expected Thanksgiving Day
  through Saturday with highs in the lower/mid 40s and wind
  chills in the 30s.

* Mainly dry through this period, with chances of rain toward the
  end of the weekend into early next week.

A large anomalous upper level low and trough continue to
approach the area on Thursday. At the surface, strong low
pressure will be passing to our north while strong high pressure
sets up to our southwest. This places the area in a tight
pressure gradient and will bring windy conditions Thursday
through Friday. Peak winds are expected on Friday when deep
mixing will allow for widespread gusts up to 35-40 mph. The NBM
90th percentile was used for gusts as the NBM has been
under-doing winds in these deep mixing W-NW flow regimes. The
forecast may continue to trend up. At this time Advisory level
gusts are expected to be isolated.

High pressure eventually builds in and should be in control much
of the weekend. There is some disagreement in timing of when
the high will be centered over us. If the latest GFS ends up
being right, the Saturday night low temperature forecast will
end up trending down and we may see some upper teens across the
interior.

A cold front approaches late in the period and could bring some
rain to end the weekend and start next week. Stuck with NBM
PoP for now, but timing will be refined as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure has settled over the area and moves slowly offshore
overnight. A warm front approaches from the southwest Tuesday
afternoon and evening.

VFR through most of the day Tuesday, becoming MVFR from 21Z Tue -
00Z Wed in developing rain. IFR expected for city terminals by 02z-
03z Wed.

Winds will become light and mostly variable in direction overnight,
and then gradually veer around to the SW towards the morning push.
S/SW winds on Tuesday increase to 7-10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt
possible at the coastal terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Showers may move in up to 2 hrs earlier than what is indicated in
TAFs Tuesday afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday night: MVFR, becoming IFR in rain. Chc S gusts 15-20 kt at
the coastal terminals. Chc SW LLWS towards midnight, especially for
eastern coastal terminals.

Wednesday: Chance of MVFR/IFR and showers in the morning and
possibly into the afternoon, otherwise becoming VFR through the day.

Thursday through Friday: VFR. W flow with gusts 25-35 kt, highest on
Friday.

Saturday: VFR. W flow with gusts 15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas have subsided as high pressure slides across, and
then moves offshore later in the overnight. As a warm front
lifts through Tue night, S flow on the ocean should increase to
20-25 kt, with seas building to 5-6 ft, especially E of Fire
Island Inlet. SCA issued from late Tue night into Wed for these
conditions.

Continued SCA conditions Wed night into Thu could potentially
reach gale force on the ocean waters by Thu afternoon. By
Fri, the ocean waters could see gusts up to 40 kt, while the non
ocean waters see gusts up to 35 kt. Additionally, seas likely
peak on Fri at 7-10 feet on the ocean, and 5-7 feet on
central/ern Long Island Sound.

Conditions gradually start to improve Fri night. Sub-SCA
conditions are expected by Sat afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
QPF from late day Tue into Wed evening has trended upward, with
amts 1/2 to 3/4 inch. There could be local amts up to 1 inch.
The bulk of the rainfall should occur Tue night.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight Tuesday night to 6 PM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight Tuesday night to 10 AM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/JT
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...BG/JT
HYDROLOGY...BG/JT