658
FXUS61 KOKX 090809
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
309 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
As low pressure approaches from the west, one warm front will lift
through early this morning while another approaches from the south
this afternoon and tonight. A weak trailing cold front will pass
through late tonight into Monday morning, followed by a stronger
cold front Monday evening. High pressure will then pass to the
south on Tuesday as low pressure intensifies over eastern Canada.
A weak frontal system will pass to the north Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Weak high pressure will move across on Thursday, then a
cold front will pass through on Friday, followed by a stronger
Canadian high on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A closed upper low over Ontario/Quebec pivoting cyclonically
down toward the upper Great Lakes today will interact with
energy in the southern branch of the polar jet, carving out a
longwave trough over the eastern half of the country. This will
send a sfc low toward the area from the Ohio Valley, with one
weak warm front lifting northward through the area this morning.
As the primary low lifts W of the Appalachians, another warm
front will approach from the south, with secondary
cyclogenesis taking place nearby late today or this evening.
These should be preceded by light overrunning rainfall mainly
this afternoon/evening.

The secondary low then shifts north through the area with mid
levels drying and with weaker lift for roughly the first half of
tonight, and areas of light rain/drizzle and patchy fog
anticipated during this time. Likely PoP for showers then
resumes late tonight with the approach of the trailing cold
front.

Temps today will reach the upper 50s/lower 60s, which is
slightly above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The trailing cold front then shifts east of the area Mon
morning. PoP will still be likely in the morning across eastern
Long Island/CT as a weak wave of low pressure develops along
the front, with chance PoP farther west as there will still be
plenty of post-frontal lift with mid level shortwaves rotating
through and perhaps upper divergence with a strengthening jet
streak approaching. Conditions should dry out for the NYC metro
area and nearby areas to the north/east Mon afternoon, while
chance PoP holds on into the afternoon for eastern Long Island
and much of southern CT.

After highs in the 50s on Mon, a second cold frontal passage
Mon evening will lower temps to 25-30 inland and the lower 30s in
the NYC metro area and along the coast. NW flow during this time
will lead to wind chills 15-20 inland NW of NYC and 20-25
elsewhere. Freeze warnings or frost advisories will likely be
needed for spots where the growing season has not yet ended.

Cyclonic low level flow and continued CAA under a tight pressure
gradient between high pressure passing to the south and
intensifying low over ern Canada will lead to a brisk and chilly
day on Tue, with more clouds than sun especially NW of NYC, W
winds gusting as high as 40 mph, and high temps only reaching
the lower/mid 40s. There is an outside chance peak wind gusts
could reach 45 mph in the NYC metro area per NBM 90th
percentile.

Winds gradually diminish Tue night and back WSW as a warm front
passes to the north. Temps will not be quite as cold Tue night,
ranging from the upper 20s well inland NW of NYC to the upper
30s in the city proper.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key points:

* A fast moving frontal system will pass to the north on
  Wednesday, followed by weak high pressure on Thu and a cold
  frontal passage on Friday as the flow aloft amplifies and a
  large closed low forms over eastern Canada down into the
  Northeast.

* Brisk westerly flow likely Wed-Thu, with winds gusting 25-35
  mph both afternoons.

* Temperatures moderate somewhat for mid to late week but still
  remain slightly below normal. Colder weather expected for Sat
  after the cold frontal passage, with highs only 45-50.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A wave of low pressure along a warm front approaches from the south
today, moving through tonight.

Latest GOES night fog product shows low clouds across LI expanding
northward, which may also impact KHPN and KBDR with brief IFR
ceilings and possibly fog. Observations across LI reporting
ceilings 100-600 ft. This is associated with moisture trapped
beneath a real shallow low-level inversion that should mix out
over the next 1-3 hours.

Otherwise, expect mainly VFR conditions through the morning
hours. Widespread MVFR conds likely develop this afternoon with
shower activity. Low probability of sparse tsra across eastern
terminals late Sunday afternoon and early evening and continue
to omit from TAF. IFR conditions possible Sun eve/night with
drizzle, showers, mist, though this may be more occasional.
Additional shower activity may move through behind the system
late Sunday night into Monday AM.

Light E/SE flow this early this morning strengthens to 10-15G20KT
by late morning, persisting through the day. Gusts may be more
occasional. Winds lighten for a period in the evening, potentially
becoming variable, before becoming W/NW late Sun Night into Mon
AM.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Brief IFR possible through about 11Z, mainly at KJFK.

Gusts that develop later this morning may be more occasional at
times.

Timing of lowering categories may be off by a couple of hours
and amendments likely in the afternoon and evening.

Uncertainty in extent and duration of IFR conds tonight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 08Z SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

Late Sunday Night: W winds increase. MVFR conditions expected, with
IFR possible, in drizzle and showers.

Monday: Chance of rain and MVFR early, improving to VFR. NW-W winds
G15-20kt.

Tuesday: VFR. W winds G25-35kt.

Wednesday: VFR. WSW winds G25-30kt.

Thursday: VFR. NW winds G25-35kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Ocean seas have come down below 5 ft, but should ramp back up to
5 ft late this morning into this afternoon as SE flow increases
ahead of low pressure to the west and a warm front to the south.
A few gusts up to 25 kt may also be possible this afternoon or
early this evening. SCA extended for the ocean waters E of Fire
Inlet through tonight, and reissued for the ocean W of Fire
Inlet for late this morning into this afternoon.

Lighter winds expected tonight, then winds pick up once again on
Mon as the pressure gradient tightens behind a cold front.
Advisory conditions look probable on the ocean by late morning,
then solid advisory conditions expected on all waters Mon night.

An extended period of hazardous marine conditions is likely
likely Tuesday through Thursday night, with at least SCA cond on
all waters. Westerly gales likely to develop on the ocean waters
daytime Tue, also the central/eastern Sound if not all waters
by late day Tue or Tue evening, and continue into late Tue
night. Gales may continue Wed into Wed night on the ocean.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns are expected at this time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Lingering high astronomical tides following a recent full moon and
modest SE winds ahead of an approaching frontal system will likely
provide just enough of a surge (3/4 to 1 ft) to produce brief minor
coastal flooding for the most vulnerable coastal areas of southern
Nassau county and coastal SW CT during the morning/early afternoon
high tides. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for these
locations.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ353.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this
     evening for ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...DR/DW
MARINE...BG
HYDROLOGY...BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DW