109
FXUS61 KOKX 162022
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
422 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure east of New England will gradually weaken and
shift east Tuesday as a stationary front remains well to the
south. This front will move back north as a warm front
beginning Tuesday night, lifting north of the area early
Wednesday, while a cold front approaches from the Midwest. The
cold front will move across late Thursday afternoon into
Thursday evening. Weak high pressure will then build in for the
end of the week. Another warm front will lift to the north and
west Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Marine layer with abundant cloud coverage persists over most of
the area. There has been some sunshine mainly across SE CT but
expect clouds to fill in there tonight. Meanwhile a few showers
associated with a weak shortwave trough approaching from the
west are affecting areas west of NYC. Forecast brings these
showers into areas E of NYC mainly overnight but 18Z HRRR/RAP
did indicate this occurring sooner rather than later (this
evening). Some patchy fog is also possible tonight, with temps
gradually falling to the lower 60s throughout.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The high will weaken further on Tue, with the flow becoming SE in
the afternoon. Additional shortwave energy approaches aloft.
With plenty of moisture still around this will allow for
shower activity, especially north and west of NYC. Temp s should
be a little milder than recent days, reaching the mid 70s in NE
NJ and the lower 70s most elsewhere.

As the warm front begins to approach, chances for showers and
possibly a tstm (via elevated instability) should continue Tue
night. Fog also more likely as SE flow turns S ahead of the
front. Low temps will be in the lower/mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key points:

* Very warm and humid Thursday with the potential for strong to
  severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and night.

* Potential for high heat and humidity late in the weekend into
  early next week.

Global models are in good agreement and forecast largely
followed NBM during this period.

Amplifying upper trough across the Midwest and Mid Mississippi
Valley on Wednesday will send a warm front north of the area
early in the day. However, the warm sector looks to be active
with a chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, especially
in the afternoon and evening. PW values will increase to around
2 inches, which is close to a daily max for KOKX upper air
soundings. Thus, any convection will likely be efficient at
producing heavy rainfall. However, storm motion will be about 30
kt with the boundary to the north. Thus, no training issues at
this time and large scale lift is rather weak. Instability is
marginal to moderate, highest across the interior. Any flooding
issues will likely be of the minor nuisance variety.

Thursday gets quite a bit more interesting with the cold front
moving into the area during the afternoon and evening hours.
Moderate to high instability and a strengthening vertical wind
profile suggest the potential for strong to severe bowing line
segments. SPC Day 4 and CSU-MLP have the area in greater than
15% for severe weather with the main threat being damaging
winds. Limiting factors could be too much dry air in the low-
levels, lowering MLCAPE values. However, it is a bit early to be
too specific with details, but nevertheless something to keep a
watch on. In addition, temperatures will be about 10 degrees
above normal with dew points well into the 60s to around 70. NBM
box and whisker plots show deterministic NBM at or below the
25th percentile. Thus, there is the potential for higher temps.
Deterministic NBM similar to long rage GFS and ECMWF MOS values.

Temperatures fall off some Friday into Saturday but still
several degrees above normal. Also have to watch out for some
ridge rollers Saturday night into Sunday as heights build and a
warm front over the Great Lakes potentially trigger MCS
development. What is more certain, heights build Sunday into
Monday, as a high amplitude ridge takes takes control east of
the Mississippi River Valley. This lines up with start of the
summer and will easily be the warmest airmass of the season.
Heat indices will be on the rise Sunday into Monday, with 95 to
100 plus from NYC and points north and west. Guidance points to
even warmer conditions on Tuesday. Thus, there is the potential
for heat headlines. NBM box and whisker plots once again showing
NBM deterministic values at or below the 25ht percentile.
Values closer to the 50th support ambient temperatures around
100 in some locations. Dew points at this time are forecast to
be in the upper 60s to around 70.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak ridge of high pressure remains across the terminals and a
stationary front will remain off to the south with waves of low
pressure along it. The front begins to move north as a warm
front during Tuesday.

Mainly MVFR for this afternoon, with a few pockets of low end
VFR for a few northeastern terminals for the next few hours,
with pockets of IFR prevailing at times for the more SW
terminals. There will be occasional pockets of light rain or
drizzle into early this evening for some terminals. Low
confidence forecast continues through this evening and tonight
with regard to the timing of specific flight categories.
Confidence increases for widespread IFR, and LIFR for the city
and coastal terminals overnight. Very little to no improvement
is anticipated during Tuesday morning.

Winds will generally be E to NE 7-13kt late this afternoon, with
a few gusts possible across eastern most coastal terminals.
The winds overall will be lighter tonight, generally closer to 5
kt or slightly less late tonight into Tuesday morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low confidence with timing and flight categories through this
evening. Amendments likely for flight category changes through
Tuesday AM.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday afternoon: Mainly IFR. A chance of showers late, mainly
at night.

Wednesday: Chance of IFR early, otherwise VFR. A chance of
showers and thunderstorms late with MVFR.

Thursday: VFR. Chance of afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms with MVFR.

Friday and Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Seas and wind gusts in E flow are likely just shy of SCA
criteria attm on the outermost coastal ocean waters W of Fire
Island Inlet. With a downward trend expected tonight and
minimal/occasional coverage of 5-ft seas at most, elected not
to issue SCA.

Ocean seas E of Moriches Inlet may briefly reach SCA levels Thu
evening as SW winds ahead of a cold front increase.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Some downpours possible with heavier showers and possible tstms
late Tue night, mainly well inland NW of NYC.

Locally heavy downpours are also possible with any thunderstorms
Wednesday and again Thursday afternoon into the evening.
However, the risk of flooding will be mitigated by the speed
of any cells and lack of overall cell training.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Rip current risk remains at moderate for today. The Tuesday
forecast will be updated within the hour. Check for update shortly.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/DW
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...BG/DW
HYDROLOGY...BG/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DW