914
FXUS66 KOTX 280625
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1125 PM PDT Tue Oct 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Valley rain and mountain snow at times through the week.

- Winter travel conditions in the Cascades through Wednesday,
  especially over Stevens and Washington Passes.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Valley rain and mountain snow is forecast at times through the
week with the highest snow amounts in the Cascades through
Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Wednesday through Thursday: A deep closed low dropping out of
southern British Columbia will bring cooler temperatures to the
region, along with increasing showers on Wednesday. This is due
to increased lift, as well as unstable conditions as 500mb
temperatures plunge -30C over the northern half of Washington into
the North Idaho Panhandle. This combined with lower level upslope
flow from west- southwest winds at 850mb into the Cascade crest,
and mountains of Northeast Washington and the North ID Panhandle
will produce several inches of snow. Bands of convergence into the
Cascades also has the potential to produce brief periods of
heavier snow with HREF showing around a 30-40 percent chance of 1
inch per hour snow rates. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in
place for elevations above 3000 feet in the Cascades through 5 PM
Wednesday with the highest amounts expected over Stevens and
Washington Passes. Wednesday Night into Thursday as the closed low
drops south to off the WA coast the flow turns southwest. Drier
air coming into the region in the mid levels will result in a
decrease in the intensity and coverage of showers, but enough
moisture lingers over the northern mountains and Cascades for
additional light rain and mountain snow amounts. Below are the NBM
chances for various snow thresholds being reached for the
mountain passes from 5 PM Tuesday to 5 PM Thursday:

Mountain Pass   2+ inches   4+ inches   6+ inches   8+ inches
Stevens Pass    100%        95%         70%         50%
Washington Pass 100%        75%         30%          5%
Sherman Pass     50%        10%          0%          0%
Lookout Pass     90%        50%         10%          5%

Friday through Tuesday: The influence of the upper low continues Friday
and Saturday as another wave associated with the low passes
through for more cool and showery conditions with mountain snow
showers, and a rain/snow mix in the valleys. On Sunday the low
starts to push out and is replaced by an upper ridge on Monday and Tuesday
bringing dry weather and slightly warmer temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Showers will be on the increase across the region
tonight and Wednesday as a low pressure system drops towards the
area. Mid level westerly flow will focus the highest activity in
the Cascades, eastern third of Washington, and the Idaho
Panhandle. Showers will moisten the boundary layer producing
increasing areas of MVFR CIGS overnight into Wednesday including
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. This weather system will usher in increasing
southwest winds with gusts of 15-25 kts becoming common across
the region tonight into Wednesday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
that downslope flow off area terrain keeps conditions VFR at
KEAT/KMWH/KLWS. Moderate to high confidence in MVFR conditions
developing at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE overnight into Wednesday morning.
JW

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        52  38  48  34  50  36 /  30  80  90  50   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  49  38  44  34  49  34 /  70  90 100  70  20   0
Pullman        48  39  46  35  49  35 /  90  60 100  40   0   0
Lewiston       55  43  53  38  53  39 /  80  30  50  40  10   0
Colville       51  37  46  34  47  33 /  40  40  90  40  20  10
Sandpoint      47  38  41  34  46  34 /  80 100 100  90  20   0
Kellogg        46  37  41  33  47  33 /  80 100 100  80  20   0
Moses Lake     57  38  54  34  52  35 /   0  40  20  10   0   0
Wenatchee      56  39  51  35  47  37 /   0  30  10   0   0  40
Omak           53  37  49  34  48  35 /   0  60  70  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM PDT Wednesday for Western
     Chelan County-Western Okanogan County.
ID...None.

&&

$$