785
FXUS66 KOTX 161147
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
447 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
- A 30-70 percent chance of showers moves over Southeast WA and
  the Central ID Panhandle Thursday night into Friday. These
  showers will be accompanied by a 20 percent chance for
  thunderstorms.

- Warmer temperatures Wednesday through Monday with afternoon
  highs in the 70s to low 80s.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Wednesday will be dry, then shower and thunderstorm chances
return to the forecast over Southeast WA and the Central ID
Panhandle Thursday evening into Friday. Afternoon temperatures
will be warm Wednesday through Monday with highs in the 70s to
low 80s, and overnight lows will fall into the 40s to low 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Wednesday through Friday: The trough over the region early this
morning will dive south and develop into a closed low over
northern California this afternoon. This combined with drier air
aloft moving in will allow for mostly clear skies for Wednesday
along with warmer temperatures with highs mainly in the 70s. On
Thursday begins to lift northeast, reaching southeast Oregon in
the afternoon. Increasing mid level moisture and instability moves
north as well, reaching southeast Washington into the Central
Panhandle Mountains with 700-500mb MU CAPE around 200-500 J/KG,
with higher values to the south over the Clearwaters. Inverted V
soundings suggests gusty outflow winds to be the main hazard, with
some CAM`s models showing isolated gusts of 30-40 MPH on the Camas
Prairie into the Central Panhandle Mountains. On Friday the low
continues its northeast track but slows, moving into central and
southern Idaho by the evening. Continue moisture and instability
from the Blue Mountains into the Central Panhandle Mountains will
result in additional chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Although the axis of best instability does shift east on Friday,
supporting overall a lower thunderstorm threat (5-15%) compared to
Thursday (15-20%).

Saturday through Tuesday: On Saturday the low ejects away from the
region quickly, and replaced by an upper ridge supporting a warm
and dry weekend with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. On Monday
and Tuesday the ridge begins to flatten but strong enough to
deflect any precipitation north of the region. A slightly cooling
trend is expected with the flattening ridge. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions are expected through the forecast
period. Northern valleys will have patchy fog through the 17Z.
It will bring IFR conditions in these areas but not impact TAF
sites.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in VFR conditions through the period. /JDC

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        74  46  79  50  76  50 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  73  46  78  50  74  50 /   0   0   0  10   0   0
Pullman        75  45  75  49  73  46 /   0   0   0  40  10   0
Lewiston       79  52  79  55  78  54 /   0   0  10  60  10  10
Colville       77  38  81  41  80  42 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      71  43  77  47  73  47 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        73  45  79  49  72  50 /   0   0   0  30  10   0
Moses Lake     77  46  80  47  78  48 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      76  51  80  55  79  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           77  48  81  50  81  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$