557
FXUS66 KOTX 161136
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
436 AM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions through Wednesday.

- Cooler with increasing precipitation chances Friday through
  the weekend.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer temperatures to start off the week with an increasing
risk for elevated fire weather conditions from gusty winds and
dry conditions through the middle of this week. Cooler
temperatures and chances for showers increase late week into
next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday: Starting off the week with a short-
wave ridge will give way to temperatures warming 5-8F degrees
warmer than Sunday. The upper level pattern will bring through a
quick short-wave weather feature that will deliver breezy to
gusty westerly winds especially in central/north-central
Washington through the Cascade Gaps. Very dry conditions will
further be depleted of moisture, which will lead to elevated
fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning will be in effect
Monday afternoon through evening for rapidly spreading of fires
should any ignite given these weather conditions. The next round
of breezy-gusty winds will arrive Wednesday with another quick-
moving weather system. A larger areal coverage of windy
conditions (15-25 mph) across the Basin, Central and Eastern
Washington. The slight difference in Monday compared to Tuesday
and Wednesday will be the slight increase in humidities Tues and
Wed. Conditions will still be very dry and a concern for fire
weather conditions being met is on our minds.

Thursday through Sunday: Environmental moisture (PWAT) will be
starting very dry (50-70% of normal) as the next trough
approaches the Northwest. It is not until late in the weekend
when PWATS reach the 100-120% of normal. Starting late Friday
the upper level pattern will bring several waves of energy
associated with the larger upper level Low as it moves into the
Oregon coast. Cooler temperatures and widespread increasing
chances for rain begin to encompass the region Friday through
Sunday. What are some of the potential amounts? The probability
of seeing 0.10 inches of rain (wetting rain) through Saturday
afternoon for the Cascade Crest is 45-55%, Omak 35%, Colville -
Sandpoint-Kellogg 45-55%, Spokane - Pullman - Lewiston 25-30%.
Through Sunday evening/Monday morning the middle of the road
precipitation forecast totals could be 0.10-15" in Wenatchee and Moses
Lake, 0.25 - 0.40" in the Okanogan Highlands, Northeast
Mountains, Spokane, Washington and Idaho Palouse, and locally
higher in the mountains and high elevations of North Idaho.

While these potential rain amounts are welcoming, they come with
a hefty moderate confidence due to the currently very dry
conditions we are observing. The rain could be absorbed into the
soil very efficiently as we gear up for the next round of
ridging and warming by mid to late next week. /Dewey

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Increasing
west/southwest winds around 21-00z tomorrow, especially in
central Washington (EAT) 00-05z. Otherwise, showers and
t-storms will pass just south of Lewiston closer to Grangeville
but HREF does have 10% continue for lightning as far north as
Lewiston. Pilots traveling south of Lewiston should be prepared
for convection 21-03z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
for VFR conditions. Low confidence for convection to impact
Lewiston. /sb

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        85  51  80  51  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  85  51  80  51  80  50 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        80  45  77  48  76  46 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       88  55  87  56  87  55 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       84  44  80  43  78  41 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Sandpoint      82  49  79  47  79  47 /   0   0   0  10  10   0
Kellogg        81  54  77  54  77  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     89  49  86  51  84  48 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      87  56  85  58  81  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           87  51  84  51  83  49 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Foothills of Central Washington Cascades
     (Zone 705)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706).
ID...None.

&&

$$