044
FXUS66 KOTX 040754
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1254 AM PDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty north winds developing Saturday evening into Sunday in
  central Washington and far north Idaho.

- Dry Sunday onward with chilly overnight lows falling into the
  upper 20s and 30s.

- Pattern becomes highly uncertain by Wednesday of next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier conditions expected over the weekend into early next week
with chilly overnight lows and areas of frost. Breezy northwest
winds Friday shifting north Friday night into Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Saturday and Sunday: Breezy winds in the Cascade gaps will slowly
subside through the early morning hours as the cold front passes
throught the region over the next few hours. The winds will stay
elevated in the higher benches of the east slopes of the Cascades
gusting around 30 mph until sunrise. A weak shortwave currently in
far northern BC will race south toward Washington in the late
morning and early afternoon hours Sunday, bringing some shower
chances (20-50%) to the Cascade crest, northeast Washington, and
north Idaho. Rain amounts will be fairly light less than 0.1". With
strong high pressure off the coast, flow will slowly turn northerly
during the day Saturday. North-south pressure gradients will
increase Satuday afternoon and Saturday night bringing the threat of
strong northerly winds to the Okanogan Valley, Columbia Basin, and
Purcell Trench. There is a 60-90% chance for the Okanogan Valley and
Columbia Basin to see wind gusts exceed 30 mph and a 20-40% chance
to exceed 40 mph Saturday night into Sunday. The wind gusts in the
Purcell trench will not be as strong but locations such as Sandpoint
and Coeur D`Alene will gust around 20-30 mph Saturday night. With a
drier post-frontal airmass in place, PWAT anomalies will drop to
around 60-80% of normal Saturday evening. Sheltered valley locations
(Republic, Colville, Priest River, Deer Park) may see their first
freeze Saturday night as they are sheltered from the winds. Winds
will slowly decrease through the day Sunday as pressure gradients
relax. Temperatures Saturday and Sunday will be in the 60s. With
little airmass change Sunday night and much lighter winds, the frost
and freeze risk expands to locations outside of sheltered valleys.
For the sheltered valleys, this will be a harder freeze in the mid
to upper 20s. The Columbia basin will be vulnerable to frost
development as well Sunday night.

Monday through Saturday: The upper level ridge off the WA coast will
start to move inland and flatten. This will bring mild conditions in
the mid 60s to low 70s, fairly light winds, and sunny skies Monday
and Tuesday. Confidence in the forecast starts to drop off quickly
Tuesday as a shortwave starts to deepen in southeastern Alaska. 56%
of the 100 member global ensemble develop and retrograde this trough
into the Pacific, bringing strong high pressure to the Inland
Northwest, favoring warm and dry conditions. 23% of the 100 member
ensemble brings the trough over the INW, favoring cooler and showery
conditons. The remaining 21% keep the trough riding the Pacific
coast which would also favor cooler and showery conditions. We`ll
continue to monitor model trends and provide more details as they
become available. /DB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions are expected as a drier airmass moves
across the region. Gusty northwest winds at KEAT will slowly
subside from 20 kt to around 10kt by 09z Saturday. The flow
pattern will favor breezy downvalley winds around 10-20 kt
gusting up to 40 mph down the Okanogan valley Saturday and
spreading into the Columbia Basin late Saturday evening. KEPH
and KMWH have the greatest chance to see northerly wind gusts
greater than 30 mph developing around 03-06z Sunday. (70-90%
chance). Breezy northeast winds will also develop in the Purcell
trench around and after 06z Sunday with gusts around 15-25 kt.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in VFR conditions. High confidence in breezy
north winds in the Okanogan valley Saturday eventually spreading
to the Columbia Basin Saturday evening.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        66  39  61  35  64  39 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  63  42  61  38  65  40 /  20  20   0   0   0   0
Pullman        61  35  60  33  65  36 /  20  20  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       66  45  65  42  67  43 /  20  20  10   0   0   0
Colville       66  28  61  26  64  28 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      61  41  59  36  62  40 /  40  40  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        59  41  58  38  64  41 /  50  50  20   0   0   0
Moses Lake     69  43  66  35  67  37 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      66  42  64  43  66  45 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           67  41  64  41  67  44 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Red Flag Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning for Foothills of
     Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705).
ID...None.

&&

$$