350
FXUS66 KOTX 281716
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
916 AM PST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow impacting travel along I-90 over Lookout Pass this
  morning.

- Colder temperatures over weekend into next week with
  occasional chances for snow.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system this morning will bring a mix of rain and snow
to the valleys in the Idaho Panhandle and snow to the mountains,
including travel over Lookout Pass. Temperatures cool to below
normal over the weekend. A couple weather system one around
Saturday and another early next week will bring the potential
for additional light snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: A shortwave trough of lower pressure is making
its way across the Inland Northwest this morning. The bulk of the
upper level dynamics with a potent vorticity maximum and a surface
low spinning up and tracking from around the Northeast Blue
Mountains and Palouse region at 2 AM to the southern and
central Idaho Panhandle by 5-6 AM this morning. This will be the
area across the southeast portion of the forecast area that
receives the heaviest precipitation on the order of 0.2 to 0.4
inches through this morning. Cyclogenesis that occurs will also
tighten up the northerly gradient across the northern mountain
zones drawing in colder Canadian air that will result in a drop
in snow levels. A convergence boundary where the surface low
tracks will also create favorable lift and result in a period of
at least moderate precipitation intensities. All of these
factors should drop snow levels down to around 3,000 feet across
the Central Panhandle Mountains this morning wet snow will fall
across 4th of July Pass with slush accumulations at least along
the shoulder of I-90. I don`t anticipate that impacts will be
seen over this pass, but can`t completely rule out a quick
dusting of snow as the back edge of the precipitation pushes
through. Lookout Pass will be high enough that I do expect the
road to see accumulating snow with a 6 hour window into Friday
morning where the pass becomes snow covered where the Winter
Weather Advisory is on track with 2-4 inches over the pass.

Drier air dropping down out of BC should result in snow intensities
decreasing across the northern mountain valleys from light
accumulating snow to flurries to skies clearing. Winds down the
Okanogan Valley with a tight northerly gradient will be gusty
this morning gusts up to around 20-30 mph. The drier air will
quickly fill in with the exiting low by late morning and early
afternoon in which precipitation will wind down and clouds
quickly clear out giving way to sunshine through the afternoon.
Clouds will then fill back in from the west ahead of the next
shortwave disturbance for Saturday. This next one though will
have much more limited out of moisture to work with.

Saturday through Wednesday night: Temperatures will be colder over
the weekend and below normal for late November. High temperatures
this weekend will be in the 30s with overnight lows in the upper
teens in the northern valleys and low to mid 20s in the Columbia
Basin. The next shortwave trough for Saturday will be mostly a non-
factor for the Inland Northwest. The bulk of the dynamics will track
west and south of the region. The limited amount of moisture with
this disturbance will also limit precipitation accumulations. Expect
light snow over the Northern Blue Mountains of up to around a half
of an inch for Saturday night. A potentially wetter shortwave
disturbance pushes in for Monday night. This shortwave looks to
track more squarely across the forecast area with northwest flow
favoring the Cascade crest and southern to central Idaho Panhandle.
Snow accumulations over the Cascade crest will up to around 2
inches. The Central Panhandle Mountains will see the potential
for 2 to 5 inches and locally up to 6 inches for the mountains
south of I- 90. This will be a colder air mass with snow ratios
higher at 10/1 to 13/1. The Camas Prairie will also see its
first light snow of the season for Monday night into Tuesday
with 1 to 3 inches expected. Snow is expected to bring minor
impacts for travel, and we may need to have Winter Weather
Advisories in place as we get closer to this period early next
week. We dry back out for Wednesday and temperatures moderate
back to around normal.

Thursday through Friday: More uncertainty further out in the
extended portion of the forecast period with about 60% of the
ensemble guidance having a stronger ridge of high pressure nudging
in off of the eastern Pacific. This would steer storms and moisture
further north across BC. Then we have the remaining 40% with a
flatter ridge and the Polar Jet sagging south across the region.
This scenario would be wetter for the upslope favored areas in
western flow, i.e. the Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle. The air
mass will continue to moderate even if the wetter scenario
plays out, but may start out with more snow for the northern
valleys. Could also have some freezing precipitation with warm
overrunning air creating a warm wedge. These details will still
need working out though next week. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs: Trending towards VFR conditions this morning, if not
already VFR. KPUW-KLWS will improve towards 20-23z as drier air
scours out low stratus. 10-20% chance of fog forming east of
Moses Lake around 08z and advecting west towards KEAT.
Confidence too low for prevailing fog in the KMWH or KEAT TAF.

.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence for
a transition to VFR conditions is high. Low confidence for fog
forming in the Columbia Basin Saturday morning.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        41  25  36  21  35  25 /  30   0   0  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  40  24  35  21  34  25 /  50   0   0  10   0   0
Pullman        41  27  38  26  35  24 /  90   0   0  20   0   0
Lewiston       45  32  41  31  39  28 /  90   0   0  20   0   0
Colville       41  21  37  17  35  19 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      37  21  32  18  32  22 /  60   0   0  10   0  10
Kellogg        39  23  35  21  35  25 /  90   0   0  10   0  10
Moses Lake     46  28  40  23  38  24 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      44  32  38  28  39  29 /  10   0  10  10   0   0
Omak           41  27  37  23  37  25 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...Winter Weather Advisory in effect through 1 PM PST Friday
for Lookout Pass in the Central Panhandle Mountains.

&&

$$