192
FXUS66 KOTX 120906
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
206 AM PDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms Thursday morning over north-central and
  northeast Washington and over the southern Idaho Panhandle.

- Cooler but still warm with isolated showers and thunderstorms
  mainly over the mountains through the weekend

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy winds and dry conditions through Thursday will lead to
elevated fire weather conditions in Central Washington.
Temperatures continue to gradually cool down for the rest of the
week. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue this week, primarily in the mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday: The upper level pattern looks to remain
fairly static over the next week. An upper level low pressure system
will spin over the Gulf of Alaska with a flat ridge of higher
pressure situated over the Four Corners region into the Rockies and
central U.S. The flow pattern situated between these two larger
scale pressure areas will remain southwest. There isn`t much of a
tap of moisture off of the Pacific as the sub-tropic moisture plumes
remain over the western and central portion of the Pacific Ocean.
The flat ridge with a persistent westerly flow keeps moisture that
extends from the Gulf of California and Gulf of Mexico away from the
region as well. The next week will see perpetual shortwave
disturbances swing across as they round the low situated over the
Gulf of Alaska. The lack of moisture will limit precipitation that
we see with each disturbance. Best instability for afternoon
convection will be over the higher terrain across the northern
mountain zones, and in the southern to central Idaho Panhandle.

A couple of shortwave disturbances that will pass through over the
next 24-36 hours will bring the potential for nocturnal convection.
The first is pushing across the Inland Northwest currently. Model
guidance indicates a modest amount of instability at mid levels with
up to 100-300 J/kg of most unstable CAPE over north-central and
northeast Washington depending on the model of choice. The 00Z run
of the HREF model guidance and its associated ensemble of convective
allowing models (CAMs) shows greater support for scattered
convection with the potential of embedded isolated thunderstorms
this morning. I don`t expect much precipitaiton with this convection
resulting in dry isolated lightning strikes where thunderstorms do
pass through. Conditions have been so dry that lightning will be
capable of starting new fires if it strikes in the right spots. The
good news is that I expect cloud to ground lightning strikes to be
infrequent this morning.

Another shortwave disturbance pushes across again tonight. CAMs once
again show the potential for nocturnal convection forming over
southeast Washington into the Idaho Panhandle mid level instability
will be located. Looking at similar MUCAPEs on the order of 100-200
J/kg. Looks to be scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms
possible. Not much of a threat, but could be an outside risk to
starting a new fire or two across this part of the region tonight
into Friday morning. There is greater uncertainty for additional
nocturnal thunderstorm potential heading into the weekend and into
early next week.

Winds will remain breezy today, especially in central Washington
where winds will funnel a bit stronger out of the Cascade gaps into
the Wenatchee Area and Waterville Plateau. This part of the region
will see the potential for wind gusts of 25-30 mph. The exposed
areas of the Columbia Basin will see the potential for wind gusts up
to around 20 mph. It will be dry, but not hitting the dryness
criteria to be considered for a critical fire weather day. Winds
take a dip Friday into the weekend, but will be a bit breezier early
next week with the passage of a bit more dynamic frontal systems.

Temperatures will remain above normal, but not nearly as hot as the
past few days with the break down of the ridge over the Northwest. A
slight bump up in the temperatures will take place over the weekend
into Monday or Tuesday with highs warming into the 80s after a brief
dip into the 70s Friday into Saturday. Weak cool fronts around
Tuesday into Wednesday then dips those temperatures again back closer
to average. Tuesday looks to be the breeziest and driest day of next
week and will have to keep our eye on the potential for another
critical fire weather period. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: The atmosphere is unstable for isolated thunderstorms
to continue over much of north-central and northeast
Washington. Breezy west to southwest winds on Thursday with
gusts up to 20-25 kts are possible.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for
VFR conditions. Confidence is too low to include thunderstorms in
TAFs.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        81  52  75  48  78  51 /  20  10  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  75  48  77  51 /  10  10  20  10   0   0
Pullman        76  47  71  44  75  50 /   0  10  20  10   0   0
Lewiston       86  57  81  54  84  58 /   0  10  20  10   0   0
Colville       80  46  76  42  77  44 /  30  20  30  20  20  10
Sandpoint      80  52  75  48  77  48 /  10  10  20  10  10   0
Kellogg        78  56  72  52  75  56 /  10  10  20  10  10   0
Moses Lake     87  50  81  48  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      84  53  78  52  82  56 /   0   0  10   0   0   0
Omak           85  50  79  49  81  52 /  20  20  10  20  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$