Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 200457
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
857 PM PST Sat Jan 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
The next round of rain and snow is expected across southeast
Washington into the Idaho Panhandle late tonight into Sunday
evening. High elevation snow is possible especially in the central
Idaho Panhandle and Camas Prairie. The active pattern will
continue early in the week with the potential of lowland snow
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Expect dry and cool weather late
next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Small update for this evening to make minor tweaks to the QPF and
snow for the incoming storm system based on the latest 00z
guidance. Models continue to paint the highest QPF across SE WA
and the lower ID Panhandle so no major changes there and if
anything, have continued to trim off QPF to the far north toward
Spokane northward. There are quite a range of temperatures at this
time in the Camas Prairie with Winchester and Reubens each at 32F
but nearby RAWS at similar elevations sitting between 38-40F. So
thinking the cold spots are shallow and as precipitation develops,
we will see a mix of rain/snow initially but the column should
cool allowing snow to elevations of 3000-3500 feet. Bufkit data
via the NAM/GFS do want to switch Pullman to snow despite
temperatures in the mid to upper 30s so did add a few more tenths
of snow to account for slightly higher intensities. These higher
benches of eastern Whitman County as well as the Idaho Palouse
from Moscow toward Troy will need to be monitored as the event
unfolds with temperatures currently between 35-39F. If the
precipitation is heavy enough, there is a potential for a few
inches of heavy wet snow.  /sb




&&

.AVIATION...
00z TAFS: The next storm system moves in from the southwest
tonight with widespread top down moistening expected at all taf
sites. This will bring will rain or a rain snow mix with IFR/MVFR
condtions at the TAF sites. There is a decent chance that rain
switches over to snow at KPUW and briefly KLWS but confidence is
low on exact timing. If this occurs earlier than expected, slushy
accumulations are possible at KPUW. Prior to widespread pcpn
event...the focus will be on the potential for low clouds and fog
development. The presence of broken to overcast mid clouds should
limit fog potential but areas of low clouds will remain a concern
with a very moist boundary layer. Subtle shifts in the winds will
slosh the low clouds around the Basin leading to low confidence at
most terminals prior to the pcpn. Fog was introduced to KGEG due
to upsloping east winds witch tend to bring low clouds from KCOE-
KSFF up the higher terrain into this terminal. /sb


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        32  36  25  33  25  35 /   0  90  20   0   0  40
Coeur d`Alene  33  37  26  34  24  34 /   0  90  50  10   0  60
Pullman        35  38  29  33  24  35 /  40  90  70  10   0  40
Lewiston       39  42  32  41  28  42 /  50  90  70  10   0  30
Colville       29  40  22  38  21  37 /   0  10  10   0  10  50
Sandpoint      32  36  26  34  24  34 /   0  60  20  10  10  70
Kellogg        34  37  28  33  24  34 /  20  90  70  20   0  70
Moses Lake     35  40  27  40  27  39 /   0  60  10   0   0  20
Wenatchee      33  39  27  37  26  37 /   0  30  10   0  10  30
Omak           31  39  24  36  23  35 /   0  10   0   0  10  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Sunday above 3000
     feet for Central Panhandle Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM PST Sunday above 3500
     feet for Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties.

WA...None.

&&

$$



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