895
FXUS66 KOTX 181237
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
437 AM PST Wed Feb 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Bands of snow through this morning bringing winter travel
  conditions to areas of Eastern WA and North Idaho. Be prepared
  for a slow Wednesday morning commute.

- Periodic hit and miss snow showers Thursday and Friday.

- Additional preciptiation chances Sunday into next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather pattern will continue through the work week.
Light to locally heavy snow accumulations in areas of North
Idaho and Eastern Washington by Wednesday. Snow showers will
continue on and off Thursday into Friday. Temperatures moderate
over the weekend with additional chances for mountain snow and
mix of rain and snow in the lowlands next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday: Round two of convective snow bands are
starting to move through the forecast area from the south, which
will impact the morning commute. Due to steep low level lapse
rates (8-9 degC/km) combined with very cold air aloft, these
snow bands can bring short lived, moderate impacts to areas they
move over. There are currently Winter Weather Advisories out
for the eastern third of Washington and the Idaho Panhandle
apart from the Northeast Mountains and Northern Panhandle. While
isolated, moderate impacts associated with convective snow
bands are lowered visibility, snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per
hour, and up to 5 inches of snowfall in isolated areas.
Travelers this morning should be prepared for a slower commute.
Overall snow totals will vary greatly due to these bands, but
probabilistic guidance shows a 30-50% chance for Spokane down to
Pullman seeing at least 1 inch of snow, and a 30- 40% chance
for Lookout Pass to see four inches of snow or more.

Troughing will remain over the area through Friday, resulting in
light showers through the same area this afternoon through Thursday
morning, and then again Thursday night into Friday morning. Cold air
aloft and steep lapse rates remain over the forecast area through
Thursday afternoon, but lower in intensity each day. Still, the
potential for convective snow bands and their associated impacts
continues through Friday morning. Be prepared for wintry road
conditions and for morning/evening commutes to take longer than
normal. These snow showers will yield little overall accumulation,
with only a 20-60% chance of an inch of snow or more.

Saturday through Monday: On Saturday, an upper level low drops down
off the Canadian coast. While clusters show anomalously low heights
associated with this trough, 85% of clusters have the trough too far
west for us to see any significant impacts. As a ridge builds with
its axis centered over Montana, the accompanying surface high and
low will form a tight pressure gradient on Sunday morning, bringing
concerns for gusty winds. While long term models show higher gusts
(35-45mph) confined to the Cascades, they show the Basin seeing
gusts up to 25 mph. The positioning of the upper level low will
usher in warmer than normal, southerly flow to the forecast area,
which will allow temperatures to moderate back to near normal. This
will also raise snow levels, favoring more mixed precipitation in
the lowlands, which could bring travel impacts. The CPC`s 6-10 Day
Outlook reflects this, showing chances for near normal temperatures
and above normal precipitation. With this pattern, expect an
unsettled weekend with continued winter driving conditions along
mountain passes. /AS

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: The overnight system is currently over the Idaho
Panhandle and will continue to shift East through 21-00Z with
light snow. IFR to MVFR will start the period for GEG-SFF-COE-
PUW. With the exiting system, conditions at these sites are
expected to improve VFR. Low level ceilings is lower the chance
of dense fog developing at these sites. Any breaks could bring
IFR vis. Drier air will keep MWH-EAT at VFR through the period.
The same is expected for LWS. GEG has a high chance for IFR vis
tonight with developing fog over the West Plains.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Moderate confidence on timing of improving ceilings. Moderate
to high confidence in VFR/MVFR ceilings for LWS, MWH, and EAT.
Moderate confidence on the IFR conditions for GEG. /JDC


-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        34  22  34  21  32  22 /  40  30  20  10  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  32  21  34  21  32  21 /  60  50  20  20  40  10
Pullman        33  22  35  23  32  22 /  70  20  20  20  50  10
Lewiston       40  26  39  27  38  25 /  60  10  10  20  20   0
Colville       36  20  33  14  32  19 /  30  40  30  10  20  10
Sandpoint      28  19  30  19  31  21 /  70  50  40  20  40  20
Kellogg        31  19  34  22  31  20 /  80  60  40  30  60  20
Moses Lake     41  25  37  21  37  25 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      39  25  34  22  35  25 /  20  20  20   0   0   0
Omak           35  19  32  17  32  23 /  10  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Lower
     Garfield and Asotin Counties-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia
     Basin-Washington Palouse.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for
     Northeast Blue Mountains.
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Coeur
     d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce
     Counties-Lewiston Area.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for
     Central Panhandle Mountains.

&&

$$