150
FXUS66 KOTX 131812
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1112 AM PDT Tue May 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued afternoon showers and chances of thunderstorms
  through Wednesday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and wetter weather pattern will stick around this week
with several opportunities for showers and afternoon
thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday and Wednesday: A cool and showery pattern will persist
through Wednesday as we remain under a cold upper level trough.
Conditions Tuesday will be similar to what we saw on Monday with
steep lapse rates and CAPE values of 200 to 500 J/kg bringing
convective showers and chances for thunderstorms across a large part
of the region. Wednesday will feature another round of afternoon
showers focused over the Cascade Crest, Northeast WA, and the ID
Panhandle, though conditions look less favorable for thunderstorms.

Thursday through Monday: Models are coming into better agreement on
a ridge of high pressure briefly building in on Thursday, bringing a
break from the showers everywhere but far northern WA and North ID
along the Canadian border. A more unsettled pattern will return
Friday bringing additional chances for showers and afternoon
thunderstorms across a larger portion of the region. Central WA will
unfortunately miss out on most of the showers throughout the
forecast period. Afternoon high temperatures will generally be in
the 60s and overnight lows in the 40s. /Fewkes

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Widely scattered convective showers today under a
conditionally unstable trough of lower pressure. Showers are
expected to primarily be concentrated east of a line from KOMK
to KEAT and will move north to south at 10-15 kts. Isolated
afternoon thunderstorms are also expected, but confidence is too
low that any one airport will see a thunderstorm to include in
the TAFs. Ceilings will lift with surface heating this afternoon
with VFR conditions regionwide by 20Z; however, ceilings
between 4-6 kft agl will result in mountain obscurations.
Heavier showers and passing thunderstorms this afternoon may
result in lowering ceilings and visibility with brief MVFR
conditions.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Confidence remains low for thunderstorms impacting any of the
TAF sites this afternoon (less than 20% chance). High confidence
for VFR conditions this afternoon aside for local areas where
heavier showers pass through. Confidence is moderate for low
stratus and MVFR conditions late tonight after 10Z into Tuesday
morning at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW . /SVH

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        45  64  42  63  44  59 /  30  20  10   0  20  30
Coeur d`Alene  44  62  41  62  43  58 /  40  40  30  10  20  40
Pullman        41  59  38  60  42  56 /  20  20  10   0  20  30
Lewiston       48  67  45  67  49  66 /  20  20   0   0  20  30
Colville       39  64  37  65  40  59 /  40  50  40  10  30  50
Sandpoint      45  57  42  58  44  53 /  50  70  60  30  30  50
Kellogg        46  56  44  57  45  54 /  40  60  30  20  20  50
Moses Lake     44  72  41  70  44  69 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      49  68  45  68  47  69 /  10   0   0   0  10  10
Omak           46  68  42  66  46  65 /  30   0   0   0  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$