200
FXUS64 KOUN 122353
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
653 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 652 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon
  and evening across northern Oklahoma.

- Hot and humid conditions through at least midweek next week.

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions possible
  Monday afternoon across the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible early this
afternoon across central Oklahoma, with additional storm
development expected late this afternoon into this evening.

An outflow boundary pushing in from the northeast helped to develop
scattered showers and storms across north central and central
Oklahoma this morning. Since then, convergence along this boundary
has weakened and only isolated showers/storms remain. The airmass
north of this outflow boundary has also stabilized in the short
term. So isolated showers/storms over central Oklahoma may persist
early this afternoon, but the activity is on the decrease.

Farther west and south, convective inhibition is decreasing and many
convective-allowing models show storms developing late this
afternoon across northwest and perhaps central Oklahoma. MLCAPE is
already 2000-3000 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis. Deep layer shear of 30
to 40 knots is progged across northern Oklahoma late this afternoon
which would support some organized thunderstorms. With that, the SPC
did upgrade the severe weather outlook to Slight Risk for late this
afternoon and evening which is reasonable. It is likely we will see
thunderstorm redevelopment late this afternoon into this evening
with severe weather possible, both hail and strong winds. Storms
will likely not be widespread enough for significant drought relief
in many areas, although heavy rainfall is possible in localized
areas. The severe weather potential and storm coverage are expected
to decrease late this evening or early Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

The upper ridge builds stronger over the area, and the heating trend
returns to the area. A Heat Advisory will likely be necessary on
Sunday, but there is a little question on if any outflow from
overnight/morning thunderstorms may take enough off the heat to keep
some areas below criteria, so will defer on issuing an advisory
until the geography is more clear.

Another hot day is expected on Monday, but winds will be a little
stronger in western Oklahoma as surface low pressure deepens in
southeast Colorado. Although the minimum humidity is currently
projected to be 20 to 25 percent, the higher wind speeds are still
expected to push fire weather conditions into the elevated category
on Monday afternoon across the west.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

The subtropical ridge will remain centered across the southeast
United States through at least the middle part of next week.
Oklahoma and north Texas will be on the western periphery of the
ridge with a strong low-level thermal ridge. Above-normal
temperatures are likely to continue with high temperatures in the
90s to mid 100s deg F. Bias-corrected probabilistic guidance
indicates little temperature spread through Wednesday (e.g., the
10th percentile is above-normal), which indicates high confidence
of above-normal temperatures.

Northern and western Oklahoma will be close enough to stronger flow
aloft (on the periphery of the ridge known as the ring of fire),
where there will be occasional chances of showers and thunderstorms
from remnant convection or nearby fronts.

Ensemble spread does increase by late next week into the
following weekend (September 18-20), which indicates the potential
for a pattern change with the subtropical ridge breaking down and
a stronger cold front advancing southward into the area. It`s not
a guarantee, but there is a 40 to 70% chance of high temperatures
below 90 deg F on Sunday, September 20 (40% south; 70% north).
The coldest end of guidance even indicates a low to medium chance
(10 to 40%) of high temperatures below 80 deg F.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Challenging first 6 hours of the forecast period as confidence with
terminal-specific impacts from convection is relatively low at
several sites... including KWWR, KCSM, KPNC, KSWO, and KOKC.

Currently, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along a
northwest to southeast oriented corridor from northwestern Oklahoma
to southeastern Oklahoma. This activity should wane in the next
couple of hours, but additional convective activity is expected to
impact western and north Oklahoma later this evening. The chance of
convection does appear to decrease after 06-08z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75 101  77 100 /  20   0   0   0
Hobart OK         77 103  77 102 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  76 104  77 102 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           72 103  76 101 /  40   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     71  99  74  99 /  40  10   0   0
Durant OK         76 102  76 101 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ021>025-027>048-
     050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...20