581
FXUS64 KOUN 151829
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
129 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 125 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

- Low rain/storm chances linger over northwest Oklahoma through
  Sunday, with chances increasing and expanding over the northern
  half of Oklahoma Sunday and Sunday night.

- Frontal boundary will results in a brief reprieve in extreme
  heat for northern Oklahoma Monday.

- Dangerous heat continues through the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Another very hot afternoon across Oklahoma and western north Texas,
where a Heat Advisory continues for all of western, central and
southeast Oklahoma and western north Texas through 7pm this evening
and then continues for all but the western row or two of counties
tonight and through the day Sunday.

In addition, the combination of very dry vegetation and drought
along with the extreme heat will result in elevated fire weather
this afternoon into the early evening hours across portions of the
area. There could also be a concern if any convection develops in
northwest Oklahoma with the potential for lightning caused fire
starts.

Speaking of convection, a surface "cold" front will move into
southwest Kansas by this afternoon, which will be a focus for storm
development later today. Although much of the convective activity is
expected to remain north and west of the area, if a storm is able to
move into northwest Oklahoma, it will pose a threat for damaging
wind gusts.

The low-end risk for convection will continue tonight across far
northwest Oklahoma, but the risk of severe weather will diminish as
we go deeper into the evening with the loss of daytime heating. The
associated front will also slide a bit further south overnight and
is expected to be located near a Ponca City to Elk City line by
morning.

A reason that we will keep the advisory going is because of the lack
of any real relief overnight as many locations are expected to only
drop into the lower 80s by Sunday morning. Northwest Oklahoma may
get a bit of a break as they will be to the north of the front for a
good portion of the overnight period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

The aforementioned front will approach I-40 Sunday afternoon with
slightly less hot conditions across far northern Oklahoma, but still
all but far northwest Oklahoma will likely climb above 100 degrees.
In addition will continue to have a Heat Advisory for all but
western portions of Oklahoma and western north Texas, where
temperatures and heat indices are expected to remain just below
advisory criteria.

By Sunday afternoon, along and north of the front there will be at
least a chance for some isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Keep fingers crossed that some areas could see at
least a little rain and no strong wind gusts to go along with it. If
any storms do develop, will need to be mindful of dry lightning and
possible fire starts associated with those strikes.

Models do show the front pushing into southern Oklahoma Sunday night
into Monday morning and at least a low chance of precip continuing
at least across northern into central Oklahoma Monday morning. The
front will begin to lift back to the north during the day Monday
with rain chances diminishing through the day and likely confined to
far northern Oklahoma by Monday afternoon.

The front should give a bit of reprieve of excessive heat and
keeping the potential for any heat headlines confined to southern
Oklahoma and western north Texas Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

The hot temperatures will spread back north on Tuesday as the
front dissipates and southerly flow returns across the area.

The operational medium-range models and many of the ensemble
members are now trending toward the upper ridge shifting to the
west and northwest flow aloft developing over the central and
southern Plains by late in the week, so we may be trending toward
seeing some lower temperatures late in the week. NBM still keeps
temperature higher late next week than this pattern would suggest,
but that will start catching up if this signal shows more run-to-
run consistency. Despite the model trend showing this potential of
shifting to northwest flow aloft, the precipitation chances
associated with this shift are still a little uncertain and
dependent on how much of the ridge still reaches into the southern
Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

VFR conditions with mid and high clouds. S to SW winds this
afternoon becoming more southerly this evening. A boundary is
expected to move into parts of NW OK late tonight/early Sunday and
then move across parts of OK Sunday morning causing winds to
shift. Some showers/storms possible in NW OK late this afternoon
into tonight. Right now it looks like the best chances would
remain NW and N of the TAF sites. However, some activity may
approach KWWR this evening but chances are too low for mention in
TAF. Variable, strong winds possible near any storms this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 102  78 102  74 /   0   0  30  20
Hobart OK        104  77 104  73 /   0   0  20  10
Wichita Falls TX 104  78 104  75 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK          104  71  96  67 /   0  10  20  60
Ponca City OK    105  77 100  72 /   0   0  20  30
Durant OK        103  78 104  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009-010-
     014>016-021-022-033>035.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ006>008-011>013-
     017>020-023>032-036>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083-084-087-088.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ085-086-089-090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...25