204
FXUS64 KOUN 010353
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1053 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1048 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

- Fog, some potentially dense, is expected tonight into Sunday
  morning.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late Monday
  afternoon through Monday night with a threat for large hail,
  damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes.

- Near-normal temperatures will arrive by the middle part of the
  week with cooler nighttime temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Scattered showers continue early this afternoon, primarily from
central Oklahoma to the north and east (northern and east central
Oklahoma) as a shortwave trough passes by. Rainfall amounts are
quite light, with most locations only receiving a trace to a few
hundredths of an inch. Even where showers aren`t as persistent,
there are areas of drizzle and mist along with abundant low
clouds. The coverage of showers should continue to decrease from
southwest to northeast as the wave exits to the northeast. All in
all, its a dreary Halloween across Oklahoma and north Texas.

Fog is expected to develop tonight into Sunday morning with light
winds and a saturated boundary layer. Patchy fog is likely just
about anywhere tonight with the most likely area for more
widespread fog (and perhaps even locally dense) across west
central/southwest Oklahoma into western north Texas. Temperatures
will be relatively mild for early November (low 50s to low 60s deg
F) with some locations likely near or even exceeding their record
warm lows.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Abundant cloud cover is expected once again tomorrow (even after
the morning fog dissipates) with broken to overcast skies for most
locations. While temperatures will start relatively mild for
early November, the abundant cloud cover will prevent temperatures
from rising too high, with highs generally in the 70s to near 80
deg F. Southerly winds will increase with a strengthening surface
pressure gradient, especially across northwest Oklahoma.

A very mild night is expected Sunday night into Monday morning
with abundant cloud cover, breezy southerly winds, and increasing
moisture advection. Low temperatures are expected to range from
the low to mid-60s deg F, which is around normal high temperatures
for early November. Many locations will likely be near or exceed
their record warm low temperatures.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late Monday afternoon
through Monday night with a threat for large hail, damaging wind
gusts, and tornadoes as an upper-level trough approaches from the
west and intersects the dryline.

A lead wave associated with the subtropical jet stream (STJ) will
approach early during the day, followed by a stronger, primary
wave associated with the trough in the afternoon and evening.
There will likely be some showers and thunderstorms associated
with the lead wave Monday morning. The coverage and duration of
this morning activity could potentially impact the strengthen of
the dryline and the redevelopment/intensity of storms in the late
afternoon (e.g., more widespread and persistent activity early in
the day may reduce the risk of severe weather later in the day
for parts of the area).

As synoptic-scale ascent lifts into the Plains in the afternoon,
a surface low will deepen across Nebraska with a trailing dryline
located across central Kansas into western Oklahoma/western Texas
that will sharpen near or just east of the 100th meridian.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop across western Oklahoma
into western north Texas along a dryline late afternoon into the
early evening as the trough approaches from the west. These
thunderstorms will be capable of being supercells with a threat
for large hail and damaging wind gusts. In addition, with
increasing low-level shear associated with a strengthening low-
level jet, there will be some tornado risk with enlarged low-level
hodographs. With strong, linear forcing, these storms may
consolidate into line segments as they move northeast in the
evening with the potential hazards being damaging wind gusts and
embedded, QLCS tornadoes. Storms will exit southeast Oklahoma
early Tuesday morning.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

As the upper low shifts east and northeast Tuesday, there will be a
chance for some wrap-around showers across the north. Meanwhile, in
the wake of the severe weather a cold front will sweep across the
area early Tuesday with strong, gusty northwest winds and cooler
temperatures. Highs Tuesday will again be in the 60s and lower 70s.
More tranquil weather is expected Wednesday as winds go light with
more sunshine.

Some differences in the models as we go late in the week as Euro
brings a shortwave trough out of the central Rockies into the
southern Plains Thursday with some low rain chances. Meanwhile, the
GFS takes that shortwave east across the Dakotas. Otherwise, cool
and quiet weather expected through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

IFR ceilings and areas of fog will continue to settle in through the
night. Some of the fog could be dense at times. Conditions will be
slow to improve during the day. Winds will be light until some
gustiness starts to develop across western Oklahoma this afternoon.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  59  75  63  78 /  10  10   0  60
Hobart OK         55  76  64  81 /   0  10  10  50
Wichita Falls TX  58  80  64  83 /   0  10   0  40
Gage OK           51  71  62  79 /   0  10  40  20
Ponca City OK     58  74  61  78 /  20   0  10  70
Durant OK         61  80  63  84 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14