


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
562 FXUS64 KOUN 151814 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 114 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 106 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms are possible late Friday into Saturday. A few strong to severe storms are possible. - Above average temperatures and mainly dry conditions are expected late Saturday into early next week. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 106 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Surface high pressure centered over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region will circulate relatively dry air into the southern Plains through at least early Thursday. Although well-above average temperatures are expected this afternoon, temperatures will cool into the very comfortable range by early evening/sunset. Meanwhile, the center of a mid and upper level ridge will build eastward, as a trough/low continues to lift across the Intermountain West/central Rockies. Therefore, expect another mainly clear night with light winds. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 106 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 On Thursday, a relatively small band of mid and high clouds (currently over eastern New Mexico and Colorado) will shift eastward, as a trough/low lifts into the northern Plains. This increase in moisture may eventually result in isolated showers across western Oklahoma late Thursday into early Friday. Otherwise, another warm and dry day is expected Thursday with an increase in southerly winds by afternoon. The surface flow across the western Gulf will also become more favorable and will result in higher dewpoint air across the southern Plains Friday into Friday night. Friday evening and overnight will feature a shortwave trough approaching the southern Plains. This may result in enough elevated instability for at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. Model soundings suggest up to 1000+ J/kg of CAPE with decent cloud-layer shear for mainly low end severe hail and perhaps strong wind gusts. The low-level flow will also become rather veered by early Saturday morning, so better precipitation chances will shift into eastern parts of Oklahoma Saturday morning. Still some uncertainties regarding how quickly drier air will move into western parts of Oklahoma Saturday afternoon. If the drier solution is more correct, there may be a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Showers and thunderstorm chances should diminish from west to east Saturday as wave continues to move through the Plains. A reinforcing cold front is expected to move in late Saturday night into Sunday which will keep Sunday afternoon highs in the mid 70s. Warmer temperatures will return on Monday as the surface high shifts to the east and lee troughing along the Rockies promotes warm air advection. This return flow is expected to remain relatively dry, so we will keep an eye out for fire weather concerns across the area, especially with 15-25 mph sustained wind gusts expected by the afternoon. Bunker && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions are expected through tomorrow. Light south or southeast winds will become gustier by late morning on Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 58 83 63 85 / 0 0 0 10 Hobart OK 57 85 63 87 / 0 0 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 56 86 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 57 81 60 82 / 0 0 10 20 Ponca City OK 59 84 62 87 / 0 0 0 10 Durant OK 57 86 64 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...06 SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...08