562
FXUS64 KOUN 151814
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
114 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 106 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

  - Showers and thunderstorms are possible late Friday into
    Saturday.  A few strong to severe storms are possible.

  - Above average temperatures and mainly dry conditions are
    expected late Saturday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Surface high pressure centered over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes
region will circulate relatively dry air into the southern Plains
through at least early Thursday. Although well-above average
temperatures are expected this afternoon, temperatures will cool
into the very comfortable range by early evening/sunset.
Meanwhile, the center of a mid and upper level ridge will build
eastward, as a trough/low continues to lift across the
Intermountain West/central Rockies. Therefore, expect another
mainly clear night with light winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

On Thursday, a relatively small band of mid and high clouds
(currently over eastern New Mexico and Colorado) will shift
eastward, as a trough/low lifts into the northern Plains. This
increase in moisture may eventually result in isolated showers
across western Oklahoma late Thursday into early Friday.
Otherwise, another warm and dry day is expected Thursday with an
increase in southerly winds by afternoon. The surface flow across
the western Gulf will also become more favorable and will result
in higher dewpoint air across the southern Plains Friday into
Friday night.

Friday evening and overnight will feature a shortwave trough
approaching the southern Plains. This may result in enough
elevated instability for at least scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Model soundings suggest up to 1000+ J/kg of CAPE
with decent cloud-layer shear for mainly low end severe hail and
perhaps strong wind gusts. The low-level flow will also become
rather veered by early Saturday morning, so better precipitation
chances will shift into eastern parts of Oklahoma Saturday
morning. Still some uncertainties regarding how quickly drier air
will move into western parts of Oklahoma Saturday afternoon. If
the drier solution is more correct, there may be a few hours of
elevated fire weather conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Showers and thunderstorm chances should diminish from west to
east Saturday as wave continues to move through the Plains. A
reinforcing cold front is expected to move in late Saturday night
into Sunday which will keep Sunday afternoon highs in the mid 70s.

Warmer temperatures will return on Monday as the surface high
shifts to the east and lee troughing along the Rockies promotes
warm air advection. This return flow is expected to remain
relatively dry, so we will keep an eye out for fire weather
concerns across the area, especially with 15-25 mph sustained wind
gusts expected by the afternoon.

Bunker

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions are expected through
tomorrow. Light south or southeast winds will become gustier by
late morning on Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  58  83  63  85 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         57  85  63  87 /   0   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  56  86  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           57  81  60  82 /   0   0  10  20
Ponca City OK     59  84  62  87 /   0   0   0  10
Durant OK         57  86  64  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...08