106
FXUS64 KOUN 142305
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
505 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1209 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

 - Warming trend continues today which could break some daily
   temperature records through Saturday when this trend peaks.

 - Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through next week.

 - The fire danger risk increases on Monday afternoon across
   western Oklahoma and adjacent northern Texas.

 - Precipitation chances return by mid next week with heavy
   rainfall possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1209 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Our warming trend continues with southerly winds over upper ridging.
Temperatures will stay well above average as much of our area could
see temperature records break or tie later this afternoon.  Adjusted
this afternoons Tmax slightly warmer than NBM using the CONSMOS
guidance.  A southwesterly low-level jet increases tonight over
southcentral through southeast Oklahoma which may keep that area
breezy tonight and perhaps gusty by late Saturday morning after
mixing.  The NBM default was a bit weak with the winds tonight under
the LLJ so increased them using the NBM 90th percentile winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1209 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Our warming trend peaks on Saturday prior to a cold front passage.
Although northern Oklahoma may cool down a few degrees (70s) during
the afternoon with the rest of our area staying warm in the mid to
upper 80s potentially tying or breaking temperatures records again
or coming close to it.  The only spoilers would be if the the cold
front pushes through faster/earlier than anticipated or if morning
cloud cover persists into the afternoon. Latest HREF ensembles
expecting some scattered to broken Cirrus lingering north of I-40
during the afternoon although may be thin and scattered enough over
the Oklahoma City Metro.  HREF and other deterministic guidance also
expecting the cold front to be pushing through northern Oklahoma by
early Saturday afternoon.  Although the main system pushing our cold
front through is way up in the U.S. Great Lakes Region, not
expecting to feel any strong cooling behind this front in our area
as we`ll be tapping into a more temperate Pacific Northwest-based
air mass as well as under a ridge.  As a result we will feel a
temperature change from warm to mild behind Saturdays cold front
with temperatures still persisting warmer than average through
Sunday. Climatically our average daily highs would be in the lower
to mid 60s.  Pressure heights decrease a bit on Sunday under a
weakening upper ridge with north-northeasterly winds as a surface
high settles across the U.S. Midwest Region.  Much of our area will
warm into the 70s on Sunday to lower 80s across our southeast.

There will only be a low-end Elevated fire danger risk on Saturday
afternoon across western Oklahoma and adjacent northern Texas as
some fire weather conditions will be met.  A dryline punch is
expected into our western CWA just prior to the aforementioned
frontal passage which could produce some very low RH values in the
afternoon in an area where fuel loading may be high. However,
windspeeds not very strong on both sides of the frontal boundary
with mainly just a windshift in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 1252 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

A weak northeast to east wind is expected Sunday with temperatures
still warming into the 70s and lower 80s.  A shortwave trough will
move across the central Plains late Sunday night into Monday as
surface low pressure tracks across northern Oklahoma and southern
Kansas.  This will bring a return of near-record temperatures
and veered southwesterly surface winds.

An elevated fire environment is certainly possible across parts
of western Oklahoma and western north Texas where deeper mixing
and stronger winds are anticipated. By mid afternoon Monday, a
cold front will begin to enter parts of northern Oklahoma.
Although stronger than the cold front Saturday, temperatures will
only cool into the 60s and 70s by Tuesday afternoon

By late Tuesday into Wednesday, rain and thunderstorm chances
will increase as a trough/upper low approaches from the
west/southwest. At this time, the exact track of the trough is
uncertain as well as surface features. However, with only weak
fronts moving across the southern Plains in advance of this
system, ample surface moisture will either be across or just south
of the area. Although precipitation is needed, locally heavy
rainfall and flooding may become a concern by Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 505 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

The development of patchy dense fog and low-level wind shear are
the primary concerns during the period. Regarding the former, this
is most expected across north-central Oklahoma (KPNC/KSWO) after
~06-08 UTC on Saturday morning. While localized reductions to IFR
(or even LIFR) category will be possible, have opted for more
reserved TEMPO mentions for now given sporadic coverage forecast.

Low-level wind shear will be strongest/most persistent across the
southern half of Oklahoma and north Texas during the overnight
period, where surface winds will remain stronger.

Widespread VFR conditions will return areawide by early Saturday
afternoon, with a surface front moving southeastward across the
area during this time. An associated wind shift is expected as
this occurs.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  57  83  50  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         49  86  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  57  87  52  78 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           46  78  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     49  76  49  72 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         62  83  59  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...09