111
FXUS64 KOUN 181842
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
142 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 139 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

- Heat wave and elevated fire danger persists into Saturday.

- A cold front arrives this weekend, bringing medium-high rain
  chances and less hot temperatures next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Today is one of the last few hot, well above normal, days left
before we get a break next week. The upper high is centered over
portions of the southern Plains this afternoon. This will lead to
another hot afternoon with highs in the upper 90s/low 100s
although temperatures in some locations may be a degree or two
cooler than yesterday. Triple digit heat indices are also expected
this afternoon. A few locations may be pushing heat index values
of near 105 but most locations are expected to remain below this
value so no heat advisory is in effect for the first time in
awhile.

Fire weather continues to be a concern this afternoon with southerly
winds at 10-20 mph with higher gusts and min RH in the 25-35% range.
These parameters, although not as low as we usually look for,
combined with the very dry vegetation that has proven to be
susceptible to fire starts/wildfires, especially for areas
along/south of I-40 and along/west of I-35, will lead to Elevated
fire weather conditions again this afternoon.

Warm temperatures are expected again tonight with lows in the mid
70s across most of the fa.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Models show the upper high breaking down a little bit this weekend
as an upper low/trough approaches and moves into the Rockies. This
will lead to SW flow developing across portions of the southern
Plains with several disturbances moving through the flow. At the
sfc, a cold front will approach/move into parts of the fa Saturday
afternoon/night and slowly move across portions of the area Sunday
before push across most of the rest of the area Sunday night.

RAIN/SEVERE: With the SW flow and cold front, shower/storm
development will be possible starting in NW parts of the fa Saturday
afternoon and early evening before spreading east and south Saturday
night into Sunday with fairly high chances (>60%) across parts of
the fa. Enough instability (1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE) is expected to
develop Saturday afternoon for some of the storms to become
strong/severe, especially in NW OK. Enough heating/mixing ahead
of the front is expected to occur for inverted-V soundings which
would lead to the potential for damaging wind gusts. Some large
hail will also be possible.

Severe storms will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening as well
although there is some uncertainty in what will occur/where
depending on what occurs Saturday night into Sunday morning. As
previously mentioned, the synoptic cold front will slowly continue
to move across portions of the fa Sunday and could be a focus for
additional storm development. However, there is the potential for
one or more outflow boundaries or the effective cold front to
also extend across portions of the fa. These boundaries could also
be a focus for storm development. However it all shakes out,
additional shower/storm development is possible Sunday
afternoon/evening with some strong/severe storms also possible.
Damaging winds and large hail are the main concerns.

FIRE WEATHER: Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again
Saturday afternoon, generally along/south of I-40 with the lowest RH
expected in parts of southeast/south central OK where some drier air
is expected to develop. South to southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph are
expected with winds a bit lighter (5-10 mph) in SE parts of the fa.
Once again the drought-stricken vegetation remains susceptible to
fire starts/wildfires which will continue Saturday afternoon.
Fortunately, it looks like at least some of these areas will have
a chances of getting some rain later this weekend into early next
week which may help alleviate some of this issue, at least
temporarily.

TEMPERATURES: One more hot day areawide is expected Saturday with
widespread temperatures in the upper 90s/low 100s. Triple digit heat
indices will also be possible in some areas. On Sunday, there will
be a bit more of a gradient due to the cold front/outflow
boundaries/clouds/rain. There is also a bit more uncertainty to the
temperature forecast on Sunday due to the timing of the things that
were just mentioned. The current forecast has highs ranging from the
upper 80s/low 90s in NW OK to mid/upper 90s in central OK to the
upper 90s/low 100s in southern OK and western north TX. If the
previously mentioned boundaries and/or clouds/rain are further south
earlier than expected then the current forecast highs could be a bit
too warm.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

By Monday morning, the cold front will have moved through much of
the area bringing a more seasonable airmass, although southern
areas may still be quite warm Monday depending on the specific
timing of the front. And the weather through the week will be
dominated by the post-frontal surface ridge across the Midwest
into the Plains. Precipitation chances Monday will primary be
closest to the cold front in the south. Later in the week the
highest precipitation chances will primarily be across the west
with post-frontal upslope surface winds helping to produce
convection over the High Plains with the storms moving toward
western portions of the forecast area. Temperatures will remain
closer to seasonable averages than we have seen in quite a while.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will
slosh back and forth between southwesterly this afternoon, to
southeasterly this evening, and southwesterly again tomorrow late
morning. A few mid-level clouds are expected this afternoon, and
again tomorrow late morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  98  75  95 /   0   0  20  80
Hobart OK         75 100  75  99 /   0   0  20  50
Wichita Falls TX  74 101  75 101 /   0   0  10  60
Gage OK           74 100  70  92 /   0  30  40  10
Ponca City OK     74  98  71  91 /   0   0  50  70
Durant OK         73 100  74 100 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...13