161
FXUS64 KOUN 071057
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
557 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 212 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

- Scattered showers and storms are expected through the afternoon
  with local heavy rainfall and flooding possible.

- Near to above normal temperatures heading into next week with a
  potential for triple digit heat.


&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Unfortunately confidence is not high on how widespread
precipitation will be today. Despite the upper low moving over
the Plains, the high moisture content in the airmass over the
area, and areas with little or no convective inhibition, the
convection yesterday and into this morning has been less
widespread than anticipated with a very unfortunate minimum in the
precipitation that has fallen in OKC/Norman, or more broadly in
the Ringling to OKC to Stillwater to Ponca City corridor. Given
these trends, have lowered POPs in some areas from the NBM POPs
for today. Things are also complicated with the current Flood
Watch. Highest precipitation potential will be in southeastern
Oklahoma. But even in areas with less widespread precipitation
expected, these showers and storms have been very efficient at
producing heavy rainfall with our high precipitable water values -
as we saw last evening in the Weatherford area. Therefore am
reluctant to trim the watch too much at this point with such high
PW values over the area. Have at least trimmed the western
portion of the watch, and will likely be able to remove some more
counties later in this shift. The day shift will likely be able
to trim more from west to east through the day as the upper trough
and the potential for showers/storms shifts east through the day.

In general, the shower and storm potential will diminish from west
to east through the day with some clearing skies behind the upper
trough axis. With that, high temperatures will be warmer today in
the west, but similar highs to yesterday are expected in the east.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Some lingering showers may persist in the east this evening before
the upper trough moves far enough east to push the convection east
of our forecast area. In the wake of this exiting trough, upper
ridging builds into the southern and central Plains and we will
see the return of hot afternoon temperatures. The ridging even on
Monday now looks strong enough to support triple digit
temperatures in northwest Oklahoma and the wheat belt of north
central Oklahoma. Heights actually decrease a little on Tuesday as
the ridge axis shifts to the Mississippi Valley and a trough
approaches the High Plains from the southern and central Rockies.
This will likely lower high temperatures slightly Tuesday compared
to Wednesday, although triple digit highs are still possible in
the wheat belt.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

The mid/upper level flow flattens and becomes more zonal mid week.
But with sunny skies, above average high temperatures are still
expected Wednesday and Thursday. A large-scale trough projected to
move across the northern and central plains Thursday will help
push a cold front down the plains into Oklahoma on Thursday
decreasing high temperatures and providing the next significant
rain chances on Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

The primary aviation weather issued this morning are areas of MVFR
and locally IFR ceilings, and the scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the area. The storms will be most likely
across southern Oklahoma approaching KDUA, with some potential of
scattered storms near the central and north central Oklahoma
sites. The precipitation chances will decrease from west to east
across the area through the day. Areas of low ceilings across the
area will also lift through the day with clearing skies spreading
from west to east. There are areas of low visibility (AOB 1/2SM)
across the northeastern Texas panhandle, central and eastern
Oklahoma panhandle and southwest Kansas. There is some potential
for low visibility to develop at KWWR over the next couple of
hours, but the potential is too low to mention explicitly in the
KWWR TAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  85  74  93  75 /  50  10   0   0
Hobart OK         91  74  98  75 /  20  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  91  74  95  74 /  60   0   0   0
Gage OK           91  74 102  77 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     83  73  92  77 /  50  40  20  10
Durant OK         87  76  91  77 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through this afternoon for OKZ012-013-018>020-
     024>032-038>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through this afternoon for TXZ086-088>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...26