814
FXUS64 KOUN 282324
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
624 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 623 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

- Rain chances increase late Thursday through Saturday. Highest
  rain totals western OK and western north TX.

- Additional rain/storm chances Sunday into early next week, low
confidence on details.

- Above normal temperatures continue through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Sensible conditions this afternoon and evening will continue to
run "a month behind" (i.e., more akin to late September), with
peak temperature readings running in the low-80s areawide. A
modest pressure gradient and lingering low-level jet feature
(combined with mostly clear skies) will yield a gusty southwest
wind across western Oklahoma, with occasional gusts up to 35 mph
expected.

We will remain dry today and tonight, with weak quasi-zonal flow
and rising mid-level heights across the region. In addition to
scattered daytime cumulus across southern Oklahoma and north
Texas, density of high clouds will increase into Thursday morning
as the subtropical jet begins to strengthen and lift northward.

Ungar

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

We look to ease into a more active pattern beginning on Thursday
evening that continues into the upcoming weekend. Despite
increasing clouds and potential for widely scattered precipitation
cores prior to sunset, temperatures will remain +10-20 (in the
low-80s) compared to normal for the closing days of October.

As the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Vance move northward from
northern Mexico into West Texas on Thursday into Friday,
precipitation chances will return in earnest across the area.
Highest/most persistent coverage is expected after sunrise on
Friday across western-north Texas and the western one-half of
Oklahoma.

Overall impacts continue to point towards the lower end of the
envelope with this activity, with widespread rainfall totals of
~0.5- 1.5 inches currently forecast west of the Interstate 35
corridor by sunset Friday. The progressive nature of the
compact/weakening mid- level system should limit concern for heavy
rainfall, though with an influx of notable (~90th percentile)
precipitable water values, localized heavy rainfall (>2 inches) is
possible across western Oklahoma.

Meager instability may be enough to yield occasional lightning
strikes with heavy cores, though strong-severe storm concern is
very low (to nil) late this week.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 136 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Forcing is expected to weaken Saturday as the wave moves
eastward, but the general trend has been towards a bit slower exit
for precipitation chances Saturday, with rain showers potentially
lasting into the afternoon or early evening across central and
north-central OK. Once again lightning potential appears low.
Storm-total rainfall amounts are likely to exceed an inch across
portions of western OK and western north TX where NBM is still
highlighting over 60-70% probabilities of this amount, with
probabilities of exceeding an inch of rain quickly dropping to
10-20% along and east of I-35 where totals closer to 0.5-0.75" are
expected to be more common.

Drier conditions are forecast Saturday night into much of the day
on Sunday but will not last long as another system is slated to
move in rather quickly behind this one. Models are still
struggling to resolve the details of this system as energy from
the northern and southern streams attempts to phase over the
central US. Depending on how the two streams interact will
determine the track and amplitude of the system as it moves across
the area early next week. The more amplified solutions would
bring a risk for severe weather and/or heavy rainfall to portions
of the area, while other solutions show extensive dry-slotting and
much lower rainfall totals. No clear favorite is evident in the
ensemble members at the moment leading to rather low forecast
confidence during this period, though for now the period of
greatest potential impact appears to be centered around Monday.
Cooler temperatures are then forecast to move in behind this
system, bringing at least a brief break from our above average
stretch by the middle of next week.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

VFR conditions continue into the night. With moisture return
around daybreak, there is some potential for stratus development
near the Red River, but model guidance suggests a 20 percent or
less chance of prevailing VFR ceilings being impacted.
Thunderstorm chances will rise in the afternoon in western north
Texas and perhaps adjacent far southern Oklahoma, though those
storms will be scattered and not a total washout at any site.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  62  82  61  71 /   0   0  40 100
Hobart OK         61  82  60  68 /   0  10  60 100
Wichita Falls TX  62  82  61  71 /   0  40  70  90
Gage OK           58  81  57  66 /   0   0  30 100
Ponca City OK     61  84  61  74 /   0   0  20  90
Durant OK         63  84  63  76 /   0  20  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...04