439
FXUS64 KOUN 171129
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
629 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 623 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

- Severe thunderstorm chances early Tuesday morning through
  Wednesday.

- Above-average temperatures are expected much of this week and
  into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Storms developing in western Nebraska are expected to dive south
through Kansas and make a run at northern Oklahoma. By the time
they reach OK / KS border this morning, storms will likely be
trending weaker though there could be a lingering low risk for
strong to marginally severe storms (aided by the low level jet in
northwest Oklahoma).

As the next wave approaches, we could see a few attempts at storms
late this afternoon, mainly in western Oklahoma. Chances are low,
but if storms do develop, large hail and damaging winds will be
possible. Higher chances will be late Tuesday night as another MCS
is forecast to come south out of Kansas--again, bringing a risk of
large hail and damaging winds. With a frontal boundary moving
through, we will also have a low risk for tornadoes along that
boundary.

Temperatures will peak today with highs in the 90s to near 100
degrees. Heat indices will rise into the triple digits.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Chances for scattered showers and storms continue into Wednesday
morning, mainly along and near the frontal boundary (aided by
isentropic lift) which is expected to be draped across western
north Texas up through northeast Oklahoma. Afternoon chances along
and near this front will be aided by daytime heating. Both rounds
have potential for strong to severe hazards.

By Thursday, the ridge starts to build back in, reducing our rain
chances.

Temperatures begin to cool in northern Oklahoma on Wednesday to the
upper 80s as the frontal boundary moves through. By Thursday,
southerly flow will have returned allowing temperatures to climb
into the 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Upper level ridging will keep our area mostly dry and warm late week
through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

VFR/MVFR ceilings this TAF period. A line of storms is moving
across parts of north central OK right now. This activity is
expected to generally move SE. The most likely TAFs to see storms
is KPNC and KSWO. Another round of showers and storms is expected
this evening/overnight with highest chances in northern OK. Strong
variable wind gusts possible with the storms. Winds during the
day will generally be from the S except for those behind the
outflow boundary that will move across parts of the area this
morning. These winds will shift back towards the south later
today. Winds will then shift towards the N and NW overnight
tonight as a front begins to move into parts of the area along
with any variable wind shifts associated with outflow boundaries.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  91  72  88  70 /   0  30  20  10
Hobart OK         98  69  92  68 /   0  20   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  97  76  94  73 /   0  10  20  20
Gage OK           97  64  87  63 /  10  40   0   0
Ponca City OK     91  68  86  66 /  50  60  10   0
Durant OK         93  76  91  73 /   0  10  20  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...25