683
FXUS64 KOUN 191151
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
651 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Thunderstorms are likely to continue this morning across portions
of western and northern Oklahoma. Any stronger storm may produce
30-40 mph wind gusts, but locally heavy rainfall is the main
hazard. A tropical cyclone is expected to make landfall this
evening across northeastern Mexico. The outer bands of this
disturbance may may move close to western north Texas, so have
included 15-20% chance of thunderstorms for this area. Otherwise,
partly cloudy skies across most of the area will help high
temperatures reach into the low 90s this afternoon. Additional
thunderstorm development is possible in the Texas Panhandle this
evening and may move into portions of western Oklahoma. This
activity should weaken as it moves closer western Oklahoma, but
any stronger storm that does make it into the area could produce
30-40 mph wind gusts.

Bunker

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The main message in the long term will be the heat concerns
during the latter part of the weekend and into next week. A mid-
level ridge is expected to move westward over our area starting
Saturday. These height rises will foster and increase in high
temperatures area-wide. Many locations will see near triple digit
heat for several days in a row starting Sunday. Heat Advisories
will be likely and maybe even an Excessive Heat warning will be
necessary if this trend continues as heat indices will be between
105-110F. There aren`t many days in the long term that will see
measurable rainfall. Mid range models suggest that the heat will
stick around through the end of next week, when the aforementioned
ridge finally starts to break down.

Bunker

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

MVFR ceilings are expected at central and northern Oklahoma TAF
sites though the morning as a large area of light showers and
isolated storms dissipate. Otherwise, VFR conditions and moderate
southeast winds are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  90  71  88  72 /  20  10  10   0
Hobart OK         90  70  87  71 /  20  10  20   0
Wichita Falls TX  90  72  88  72 /  10  10  10   0
Gage OK           86  66  88  69 /  60  20  10  10
Ponca City OK     90  71  90  72 /  30  10  10   0
Durant OK         89  73  92  72 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...09