565
FXUS64 KOUN 191748
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1148 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1137 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

  - Thunderstorms and heavy rainfall possible late Wednesday into
    Thursday. A few strong to severe storms possible late
    Wednesday afternoon and night.

  - Mainly dry Friday afternoon through early Sunday

  - Rain chances increase again late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 1222 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Overnight into early Wednesday morning, there is a low chance
of isolated showers, perhaps a thunderstorm developing across far
southern Oklahoma.  It`s more likely that warm temperatures
around 700 mb will inhibit this development.  High clouds will
prevent good radiational cooling following yesterday`s weak cold
front.  This front has become stationary across far southeast
Oklahoma and northern Texas. Surface high pressure centered over
southwest Iowa will keep surface winds northeast through early
Wednesday morning.

During the day Wednesday, higher theta-e air will lift back into
parts of southern Oklahoma, as a warm front moves northward.  How
far north the front will lift by late afternoon is uncertain.
It`s possible, a weak wave (surface low pressure) will develop
across West Texas (central) and move eastward into western north
Texas by 4-6 pm. This will delay better moisture lifting into
southwestern Oklahoma, but would also focus storm development in
this area. Model soundings also suggest parts of south central
Oklahoma will become uncapped by late afternoon and storms could
form near the warm front. If storms form, instability will be
around 1000-1500 J/kg with enough shear for strong to severe
storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday night)
Issued at 1222 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

As temperatures slowly cool during the evening, boundary-layer
storms will become more uncertain. Perhaps better chances of
additional showers and storms will be north of the warm front into
central/north central/northeast Oklahoma during the late evening
and overnight. This will mainly be focused on slightly stronger
low- level flow. With better height falls to our west, additional
showers and storms should form across West Texas and approach our
western north Texas and southern Oklahoma counties late in the
overnight.

Better coverage of showers and storms should occur as the main upper
trough/low moves closer Thursday morning and afternoon.  By this
time, fairly deep/moist soundings should result in numerous
showers and embedded thunderstorms. There may be a continued risk
of stronger storms across southern Oklahoma.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will gradually decrease from
southwest to northeast Thursday night, as mid and upper level dry
air overspreads the region. Higher rainfall total by Thursday
night should be more focused across the northern half of the
state. There is still a possibility that a few areas could
received a quick 2+ inches of rainfall, especially late Wednesday
afternoon into the early overnight.

Early Friday morning, a surface and upper low are expected to be
near the Oklahoma/Kansas border, with a majority of the
precipitation north and east of Oklahoma. Some light rain showers
may linger, mainly across the northern half/third of the state. A
cold front will also move across the area and will clear south
central and southeastern Oklahoma by late afternoon/evening.
Better cold advection will overspread most of northern and western
Oklahoma during the day, but areas along and southeast of I-44
will experience another mild day. Surface winds will decrease
quickly Friday night, as high pressure builds over the Panhandles
and western Oklahoma.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1222 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

There may be some residual cloud cover across northern Oklahoma
early Saturday, but in general, a mostly clear sky is expected with
a light northerly wind.  Temperatures will also be closer to average
for late November.

Another closed low will begin to move closer to the southern Plains
Sunday into Monday. A blended approach starts low chances of rain
across northern Texas and southern Oklahoma overnight Saturday
into early Sunday, with the highest chances late Sunday into
Monday. At this time, it appears parts of southern Oklahoma and
western north Texas will have higher rainfall totals with this
system. With better Gulf moisture displaced into parts of east
Texas, most the precipitation will be rain with perhaps some
embedded thunder as the upper low passes Monday. Most of the rain
should be east of the area by Tuesday with temperatures near
average for late November.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

All terminals are expected to remain under VFR conditions at
least through 00Z. Upper storm system across the Southwestern U.S.
will be approaching resulting in periods of RA & TSRA by 00Z at
terminal KSPS then increasing across our terminals through 18Z.
Ceilings lowering to 020 ft and visibilities reduced 1-3 miles in
rain could result in MVFR to IFR category for periods across some
of our terminals. Surface winds will stay generally light &
variable.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  76  60  67  55 /  20  50  90  70
Hobart OK         77  58  68  50 /  20  40  90  60
Wichita Falls TX  80  63  71  53 /  50  70  90  60
Gage OK           72  50  64  44 /  10  10  80  70
Ponca City OK     71  56  67  54 /   0  60  70  90
Durant OK         83  65  72  60 /  30  70  90  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...68