059
FXUS64 KOUN 040800
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
300 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 300 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

- Showers are ongoing across south central/southeastern Oklahoma
  into parts of western north Texas early this morning.

- Warm, above-normal temperatures and dry conditions expected for
  the week ahead.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Numerous showers have persisted across south central/southeast
Oklahoma and parts of western north Texas due to a persistent
upper-level trough axis/weakness aloft. As this feature gradually
shifts to the southeast through the morning hours, shower coverage
is expected to diminish. Some patchy fog is also occurring this
morning with light winds and a saturated boundary layer.

Cloud cover will also clear from north to south, leaving mostly
sunny skies for the most locations this afternoon. However,
western north Texas could see some cloud cover linger a bit
longer. With more sunshine area wide, high temperatures this
afternoon will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s deg F for all
locations.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

With a relatively dry air mass and northerly winds, Monday
morning low temperatures are expected to fall into the 50s deg F
across most locations. Some localized areas in northern Oklahoma
could see temperatures dropping into the upper 40s deg F. No
significant change in air mass is expected on Monday, so afternoon
temperatures will be once again in the 70s and 80s deg F (which is
slightly above normal for early October).

By Tuesday, a strengthening low-level thermal ridge and the
return to southerly winds will result in warmer weather with high
temperatures in the low to upper 80s deg F.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Warm, above-normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue
for the week ahead. The temperature spread in bias-corrected
probabilistic guidance is low, which indicates high confidence of
no appreciable cool down next week. High temperatures will
generally be in the 80s deg F with some locations potentially
around 90 deg F (most likely across southwest Oklahoma into
western north Texas).

An upper-level low is forecast to pass by across Texas late
Friday into Saturday; however, the current forecast track would
keep any chance for rain to our southeast. Therefore, the forecast
remains dry for now.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Low clouds and a few showers will linger across central and
south-central OK into portions of western north TX into Sunday
morning, with clearing then expected through the day across much
of the area. Patchy fog and lower (IFR) ceilings are possible
later tonight into the morning in some areas, but dense fog is not
anticipated. North winds will increase slightly towards daybreak
but will remain generally light (at or below 10 knots) through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  82  56  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         84  56  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  84  58  84  56 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           80  52  80  58 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     79  53  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         85  60  86  55 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...08