404
FXUS64 KOUN 202300
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
600 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 555 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

- Cold front moving through the area today and tonight bringing
  rain chances and relief from the heat.

- Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms possible Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Scattered showers and some storms have been developing all morning
and continue early this afternoon as an area of lift shifts east
across the area. Meanwhile, a cold front continues to slowly move
south across the area today. This front could also be a focus for
additional storm development this afternoon. Enough instability
(1500-2500 J/kg) is expected this afternoon/evening for strong to
severe storms to be possible with damaging winds and hail the main
concerns. The potential for severe storms will decrease late this
evening but showers/storms will remain possible as the cold front
continues to move south.

Cooler temperatures are expected behind the front mainly across
northern OK where highs in the mid/upper 80s are expected.
Unfortunately for those ahead of the front, especially in southern
OK and western north TX, one more hot day is expected with afternoon
highs in the upper 90s/low 100s. Triple digit heat index values are
also expected in this area with heat index values around 105
possible in some locations.

With cooler air filtering into the area behind the cold front,
temperatures tonight will be cooler than this morning with lows in
the 60s to around 70 across the fa.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Showers/storms will be possible in parts of southern OK and western
north TX near or just behind the cold front. There are also some
rain chances in NW parts of the fa Monday morning. Models show
showers/storms developing in the upslope flow behind the front later
today/tonight. This activity is expected to develop into a complex
that moves towards the area overnight and then could move into NW
parts of the fa Monday morning.

Rain chances will continue on Tuesday as well but mainly in
southwest or western portions of the fa. These chances are mainly
due to showers/storms that develop west of the area in the upslope
flow and then move into the fa.

Cooler temperatures are expected across the area Monday and Tuesday.
Highs on Monday and Tuesday are expected to range from the low/mid
80s in northern OK to the low/mid 90s along the Red River. Cooler
nighttime temperatures are also expected. Northern OK could see
temperatures as low as the mid/upper 50s Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Although an upper ridge builds from Texas toward the mid-
Mississippi Valley mid week, the ridge is weaker than we have
seen recently and we still have the more seasonable low-level
airmass in place. Increasing southwest flow aloft develops across
northwestern Oklahoma with a series of shortwaves approaching in
this southwest flow. These waves will help keep precipitation
chances in the forecast mid to late week, primarily across the
western and northern portions of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Thunderstorms continue in southeastern Oklahoma over the next 1-3
hours. Reductions in visibility, briefly lowered ceilings, and
gusty winds are all possible with this activity. A cold front
continues pushing south tonight with winds shifting northerly
behind it. A band of MVFR stratus is expected along/north of I-40
late tonight and into tomorrow morning. Thunderstorm redevelopment
is possible primarily in western north Texas late tomorrow
afternoon.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  67  85  64  85 /  40  10  10   0
Hobart OK         67  90  65  88 /  10  10  30  10
Wichita Falls TX  68  93  66  90 /  20  20  30  20
Gage OK           61  83  60  83 /  10  20  10  10
Ponca City OK     63  83  60  81 /  20  10  10   0
Durant OK         70  95  68  94 /  70  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...04