754
FXUS64 KOUN 210401
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1101 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1053 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

- Cold front moving through the area today and tonight bringing
  rain chances and relief from the heat.

- Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms possible Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Scattered showers and some storms have been developing all morning
and continue early this afternoon as an area of lift shifts east
across the area. Meanwhile, a cold front continues to slowly move
south across the area today. This front could also be a focus for
additional storm development this afternoon. Enough instability
(1500-2500 J/kg) is expected this afternoon/evening for strong to
severe storms to be possible with damaging winds and hail the main
concerns. The potential for severe storms will decrease late this
evening but showers/storms will remain possible as the cold front
continues to move south.

Cooler temperatures are expected behind the front mainly across
northern OK where highs in the mid/upper 80s are expected.
Unfortunately for those ahead of the front, especially in southern
OK and western north TX, one more hot day is expected with afternoon
highs in the upper 90s/low 100s. Triple digit heat index values are
also expected in this area with heat index values around 105
possible in some locations.

With cooler air filtering into the area behind the cold front,
temperatures tonight will be cooler than this morning with lows in
the 60s to around 70 across the fa.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Showers/storms will be possible in parts of southern OK and western
north TX near or just behind the cold front. There are also some
rain chances in NW parts of the fa Monday morning. Models show
showers/storms developing in the upslope flow behind the front later
today/tonight. This activity is expected to develop into a complex
that moves towards the area overnight and then could move into NW
parts of the fa Monday morning.

Rain chances will continue on Tuesday as well but mainly in
southwest or western portions of the fa. These chances are mainly
due to showers/storms that develop west of the area in the upslope
flow and then move into the fa.

Cooler temperatures are expected across the area Monday and Tuesday.
Highs on Monday and Tuesday are expected to range from the low/mid
80s in northern OK to the low/mid 90s along the Red River. Cooler
nighttime temperatures are also expected. Northern OK could see
temperatures as low as the mid/upper 50s Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Although an upper ridge builds from Texas toward the mid-
Mississippi Valley mid week, the ridge is weaker than we have
seen recently and we still have the more seasonable low-level
airmass in place. Increasing southwest flow aloft develops across
northwestern Oklahoma with a series of shortwaves approaching in
this southwest flow. These waves will help keep precipitation
chances in the forecast mid to late week, primarily across the
western and northern portions of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Low cloud cover is just now starting to develop across portions of
northern Oklahoma. Ceilings will remain between 1,000 and 2,500
feet within that stratus deck - mostly MVFR, though can`t rule out
brief forays into IFR conditions near PNC. Stratus will break up
into cumulus around noon with VFR conditions returning. Low
chances for thunderstorms in northwest Oklahoma in the morning,
and near the Red River in the afternoon.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  95  67  85  64 /  30  40  10  10
Hobart OK         99  67  90  65 /  20  10  10  30
Wichita Falls TX 100  68  93  66 /  30  20  20  30
Gage OK           88  61  83  60 /  10  10  20  10
Ponca City OK     85  63  83  60 /  50  20  10  10
Durant OK        100  70  95  68 /  50  70  30  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...04