634
FXUS64 KOUN 160726
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
226 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 225 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

- Severe thunderstorm chances return on Monday and Tuesday nights,
  and Wednesday afternoon/evening

- Hot and humid conditions peak on Tuesday

- Seasonable and dry conditions end of the week and into next
  weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

With a very moist BL (dewpoint depressions less than 3 deg), light winds,
and areas of clear skies, patchy fog is possible early this morning but
should dissipate not long after sunrise. Dense fog is not expected, but
minor visibility reductions are possible.

A lee-side trough develops today in response an approaching
shortwave and weakening upper jet maxima. Surface winds shift to the
south by afternoon for much of the area (I-35 and westward). This return
flow, combined with evapotranspiration effects from recent heavy rainfall,
will allow dewpoint temperatures to rebound into the 70`s for much of the
FA. By late afternoon, a diffuse dryline advances out of New Mexico and
to the panhandles.

Mostly sunny skies and much warmer conditions are in store for today, with
high temperatures ranging from the upper-80`s (eastern counties) to mid-90`s
(western counties). With a very moist boundary layer in place, it will feel
very warm and muggy today, especially over southwest Oklahoma and north
Texas where heat index values mostly in the 90`s with 100 to 105 degrees
possible over western north Texas and adjacent southwestern Oklahoma
counties. Temperatures have trended slightly lower with the latest NBM
run, and this is a result of the slower departure of the mid-level trough
and delayed impingement of the LLTR over our area. A Heat Advisory was
initially considered for our north Texas counties. However, confidence
is not high that we will meet criteria.

As for severe thunderstorm potential, chances are low (but not zero).
Some of the atmospheric dynamics will be in place to support storms
late tonight (upper-level divergence, mid-level shortwave, LLJ),
but there are a few notable characteristics that could prevent
sustained convection tonight, which include very warm H700
temperatures (13 to 16 deg C) and high MLCIN. We did increase POPs
late tonight into Tuesday morning towards a consensus of high-res
models, which keeps probabilities low and not zero. The severe
storms potential is after midnight and into Tuesday morning, with
hail up to quarters and wind gusts up to 60 mph possible.

Thompson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Another approaching shortwave deepens the lee-side low and the resulting
tightening of the pressure gradient will yield breezy southerly winds
(gusts to 35 mph) on Tuesday. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase
a few more degrees and hot/humid conditions are expected to lead to
widespread heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees. While storm development
is possible early evening over northwest Oklahoma ahead of the dryline,
the slightly better chances will be a storm complex descending with
the cold front late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Large hail
and damaging wind gusts are the main hazards, if storms make it into
our area.


Model guidance indicates this cold front could move slowly across the FA
on Wednesday (and ahead of another wave), and this could be the focal
point for shower and thunderstorm development on Wednesday afternoon
and evening. With a very unstable atmosphere and bulk shear values
near 30 knots, severe thunderstorms are possible with large hail and
damaging wind gusts.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

The front is forecast to undergo frontolysis somewhere over Oklahoma on
Wednesday night, with rain chances diminishing by Thursday morning.
Southerly winds and near-average temperatures are expected end of the
week and into next weekend as the mid-level ridge shifts over the
southern plains.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

VFR conditions are expected through most of the period with
mainly a light southeast wind. High clouds will increase some
overnight, but most of the convection over the High Plains has
weakened this evening. Scattered low clouds (4k feet) may
skirt DUA and SWO during the early part of the TAF period.
With a light wind, light ground fog and or heavy dew will form
by Monday morning. This may reduce visibility for a few hours
around sunrise.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  88  72  92  74 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         94  75  99  73 /   0   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  93  76  98  76 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           93  72  98  65 /  10  10  10  30
Ponca City OK     87  70  92  71 /   0  20  10  30
Durant OK         88  75  92  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...06