689
FXUS64 KOUN 140316
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1016 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1011 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

  - Rain will be ending across the area tonight.

  - Above normal temperatures and dry conditions return Tuesday
    through Friday.

  - Showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday into Saturday
    with the next cold front.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 831 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Latest observations show some fog over parts of western and
northwestern Oklahoma this evening, with visibilities ranging
from 3 to 5 miles for cities such as Weatherford, Clinton, and
Elk City.

As forecast grids for dewpoint temperatures are underperforming
compared to latest obs, we increased dewpoint temperatures into
Tuesday morning (leaning heavily on the NAM). Oklahoma mesonet
shows dewpoint depressions of around 1 deg F and there is a pretty
consistent signal among short-term models for patchy fog formation
to continue tonight into tomorrow morning across parts of western
and northwestern Oklahoma. Parts of the OKC metro could, perhaps,
see some minor visibility reductions briefly towards dawn.

Thompson

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Widespread showers are ongoing across much of Oklahoma and north
Texas this afternoon. A weak shortwave trough, moisture from the
remnants of Tropical Storm Raymond, isentropic ascent, and a cold
front are all the synoptic-scale features aiding in the
development of the ongoing rain.

The most persistent rainfall is expected across north central
Oklahoma with more scattered activity farther south. It`s the type
of day where many locations will receive rainfall, but the
rainfall amounts for most spots will be light.

The cloud cover, rain, and cold front will result in a cool
afternoon for many locations with temperatures across the
northwest half to two-thirds of the area only in the 60s and 70s
deg F. South central/southeast Oklahoma and parts of north Texas--
where there has been quite a bit more sunshine--will once again
be in the upper 80s to near 90 deg F.

By this evening, the cold front will go through frontolysis
(dissipate) and the shortwave will weaken as it lifts to the
north. This will end the chance of rain from south to north
tonight. There is the potential for some patchy fog tonight,
especially across northwest Oklahoma where boundary layer humidity
will be near 100% with light winds.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Very warm, above-normal temperatures will return Tuesday and
Wednesday as southerly winds return area wide in tandem with a
strengthening mid-level ridge. The ~590 to 592 dam mid-level
ridge will be centered near the ArkLaTex. As a result, high
temperatures will be in the 80s to near 90 deg F both days with
dry conditions. These temperatures are ~10 deg F above normal for
mid-October.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Begin to see the upper ridge shift eastward by Thursday as longwave
trough moves through the western basin and into the Plains. As this
occurs lee cyclogenesis takes place in the High Plains and south
winds will increase through the Plain states. The initial shortwave
embedded within the large-scale trough will lift well north of the
area through the northern Plains on Thursday and gulf moisture will
be restricted to near the south Texas coast. This will limit any
rain chances in our area.

As the upper trough to our north moves east the attendant surface
front will begin to push south into the area on Friday. Meanwhile,
low level moisture will slowly increase as south winds continue to
pull gulf moisture northward. So by late in the day Friday into
Friday night a few showers/storms may be possible mainly well in
advance of the surface front, where better low level moisture may
reside, mainly along and east of the I-35 corridor.

Models still diverge by the weekend on how they handle the upper air
pattern and associated surface features, so forecast confidence
drops off by this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1011 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Some scattered light showers continue to move across parts of
northern OK. This activity is expected to lift north of the area
over the next few hours so out of or almost out of the area
starting at 06Z. Most of the area has VFR or MVFR ceilings except
a few sites in NW OK including KWWR where ceilings are LIFR.
Improving ceilings and decreasing clouds are expected from S to N
late tonight into Tuesday. Some BR has also developed reducing
visibility this will continue overnight into early Tuesday
especially at KWWR. Winds will remain relatively light overnight
shifting towards the SE most locations Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  65  85  62  84 /  10  10   0   0
Hobart OK         62  87  60  85 /  10  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  63  88  60  87 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           59  81  58  82 /  30  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     64  85  62  85 /  20  10   0   0
Durant OK         63  88  61  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...25