967
FXUS64 KOUN 261750
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1247 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

- A round of rain moving through this morning with another chance
  late today with a few strong to severe storms possible.

- Widespread beneficial rainfall expected beginning Tuesday
  through the end of next week.

- Temperatures will remain above normal through early next week,
  before cooling down mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 125 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Multiple embedded shortwaves will continue to move east this morning
and through the day Saturday as upper level ridge gets suppressed
further south into south Texas into the gulf. As this occurs and the
low level jet strengthens, expect to see an increase in
showers/storms moving into or developing across western and
eventually central and northern Oklahoma through the remainder of
the night.

No severe weather is anticipated with this activity, but lightning
and heavy rainfall will be possible as PWATs of 1.4-1.7 inches are
present across much of the area west of I-35.

As we go through the day today upper trough across the Plains will
push east as height rises occur farther west through the central and
southern Rockies. Although the morning convection will be play a
role for later in the day, it appear by afternoon, with some breaks
in the cloud cover, daytime heating will result in surface CAPE on
the order of 1500-2000J/kg across western Oklahoma. Marginal deep
layer shear will limit overall organization, but a few strong to
severe storms appear possible. As this activity moves east into the
evening anticipate a gradually weakening of the convection as
instability wanes. Damaging wind gusts, some risk of large hail and
heavy rainfall will accompany the strongest storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 125 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Lingering showers/storms will continue Sunday morning along and east
of I-35 as the upper trough slowly shifts east of the area. By
afternoon most locations will be dry as mid level heights rise with
developing shortwave ridging once again develops out into the
Plains. However isolated showers/storms will be possible as deeper
moisture plumes remains and daytime heating results in increasing
instability.

This shortwave ridging will keep rain chances minimal through the
day Monday and will allow temperatures to rebound both Sunday and
Monday back into the 90s outside of northern Oklahoma, A few
locations near and south of the Red River may approach 100 degrees
both days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 125 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Sub-tropical jet coming off the Pacific will bring increasing
amounts of moisture, including the remnants of Hurricane Polo north
and northeast ahead of strengthening western trough. This will allow
precip chances to increase beginning Tuesday.

The 00Z GFS has come in more in line with the Euro in a much slower
eastward progression of the upper low through the southwest into the
southern Plains this week. After the initial increase in precip
chances Tuesday, abundant deep layer moisture and the slow movement
of the upper low will bring an extended chance of rain through the
remainder of the week and perhaps into next weekend. I`m reluctant
to say this, but this would bring in the possibility of an increased
chance of flooding rainfall, believe it or not as we go through the
week, with very little chance of severe storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

VFR conditions expected this TAF period. Scattered showers/storms
remain possible into Sunday morning. Gusty variable winds could be
possible with some of the storms this afternoon/evening. Locally
heavy rain also possible. Winds will range from the SW to SE this
afternoon becoming generally S to SE this evening although winds
could shift more in some locations due to any outflow
boundary(ies).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  90  69  91  70 /  60  40  20  10
Hobart OK         90  68  92  68 /  30  40  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  97  69  98  70 /  30  40  20  10
Gage OK           88  63  87  62 /  50  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     84  65  85  65 /  80  60  20  10
Durant OK         93  69  96  70 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...25