305
FXUS64 KOUN 192337
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
537 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 532 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

  - Multiple rounds of showers/storms late Wednesday through
    Thursday; storms may be strong to severe with locally heavy
    rainfall and flash flooding possible.

  - Rain chances return on Sunday into Monday, along with flash
    flood potential, especially across southern Oklahoma and
    western north Texas.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 255 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms and flash
flooding during the late afternoon through overnight hours...

Latest observations indicate the warm front has progressed as far
north as the I-40 corridor with a 20 deg T and Td spread observed
from northern to southeastern Oklahoma. Mid/high-level clouds
continue to stream across the area, which are driven by relatively
strong southwesterly flow ahead of slow-moving (if not quasi-
stationary) closed low pressure system near the California and
Nevada border.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to develop this
evening over southern counties, with guidance suggesting western
north Texas as the area of CI. Increasing coverage is anticipated
during the overnight hours into south-central and perhaps central
Oklahoma towards dawn - though there is above-average uncertainty
for the near term period - as guidance has fluctuated significantly
from run to run.

The warm front is prog`d to become nearly-stationary over central
Oklahoma, and progress very little tonight. South of the warm
front, increasing instability and high cloud-layer shear will
favor the development of a few strong to severe storms capable of
producing large hail up to the size of golf-balls. There is a
very low tornado risk overnight into tomorrow morning, mainly near
and south of the Red River.

Thompson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 255 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

By Thursday morning, precipitable water content is modeled to rise
to anomalously high levels over southeastern Oklahoma and near
the Red River into north Texas. The 50th percentile PWAT value
from NBM is modeled to range from 1.4 to 1.7 inches near and east
of the I-44 corridor during the early morning hours on Thursday.
For comparison, climatology shows the daily max PWAT for 12Z Nov
20 is 1.35 inches. Thus, the environment will support very
efficient rainfall from the stronger storms, with peak rainfall
rates potentially increasing to about 2.5 to 3 inches per hour.
Thus, flash flood potential could increase near or after dawn
within that plume of higher moisture content - namely, east of
I-35 and south of I-40.

The area of widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms is prog`d
to lift into northern Oklahoma around mid-day. By Thursday
afternoon, the aforementioned closed low opens and ejects over
New Mexico towards Kansas. Another round of showers and
strong/severe storms is possible late Thursday ahead of the
Pacific cold front for areas mainly east of I-35 and south of
I-40. Large hail and damaging winds are the main hazards, with a
very low risk of quick-spinup tornadoes. Shower/storm activity
exits by early Friday morning.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1222 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

There may be some residual cloud cover across northern Oklahoma
early Saturday, but in general, a mostly clear sky is expected with
a light northerly wind.  Temperatures will also be closer to average
for late November.

Another closed low will begin to move closer to the southern Plains
Sunday into Monday. A blended approach starts low chances of rain
across northern Texas and southern Oklahoma overnight Saturday
into early Sunday, with the highest chances late Sunday into
Monday. At this time, it appears parts of southern Oklahoma and
western north Texas will have higher rainfall totals with this
system. With better Gulf moisture displaced into parts of east
Texas, most the precipitation will be rain with perhaps some
embedded thunder as the upper low passes Monday. Most of the rain
should be east of the area by Tuesday with temperatures near
average for late November.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Heavy mid-to-high cloud cover across the area, though conditions
remain VFR for now and should for most of the night. Thunderstorms
are ongoing across parts of western north Texas with brief heavy
rain and visibility/ceiling reductions, though those will be
transient for the next several hours. More widespread rain and
thunderstorms will develop early in the morning and last through a
good chunk of the day. With that, ceilings will drop until the
southern half of the area is largely MVFR and IFR ceilings
dominate the northern half. Some fog/mist visibility reductions
are possible as well. Winds will remain below 10 knots for the
most part.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  60  68  55  67 /  50  90  70  10
Hobart OK         57  69  48  69 /  40  90  50   0
Wichita Falls TX  63  73  53  73 /  70  90  60   0
Gage OK           48  63  44  60 /  10  90  70  10
Ponca City OK     55  65  55  67 /  40  90  90  10
Durant OK         66  75  60  75 /  80  90  90  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...04