138
FXUS64 KOUN 170544
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

- Severe thunderstorm chances early Tuesday morning through
  Wednesday.

- Above-average temperatures are expected much of this week and
  into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Storms developing in western Nebraska are expected to dive south
through Kansas and make a run at northern Oklahoma. By the time
they reach OK / KS border this morning, storms will likely be
trending weaker though there could be a lingering low risk for
strong to marginally severe storms (aided by the low level jet in
northwest Oklahoma).

As the next wave approaches, we could see a few attempts at storms
late this afternoon, mainly in western Oklahoma. Chances are low,
but if storms do develop, large hail and damaging winds will be
possible. Higher chances will be late Tuesday night as another MCS
is forecast to come south out of Kansas--again, bringing a risk of
large hail and damaging winds. With a frontal boundary moving
through, we will also have a low risk for tornadoes along that
boundary.

Temperatures will peak today with highs in the 90s to near 100
degrees. Heat indices will rise into the triple digits.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Chances for scattered showers and storms continue into Wednesday
morning, mainly along and near the frontal boundary (aided by
isentropic lift) which is expected to be draped across western
north Texas up through northeast Oklahoma. Afternoon chances along
and near this front will be aided by daytime heating. Both rounds
have potential for strong to severe hazards.

By Thursday, the ridge starts to build back in, reducing our rain
chances.

Temperatures begin to cool in northern Oklahoma on Wednesday to the
upper 80s as the frontal boundary moves through. By Thursday,
southerly flow will have returned allowing temperatures to climb
into the 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Upper level ridging will keep our area mostly dry and warm late week
through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected for a majority of the TAF period.
Thunderstorms across northwestern Kansas, are still expected to
build south and east during the overnight hours. By 12-15Z, some
of these storms may impact mainly north central Oklahoma
(PNC/SWO). Strong gusty winds and reduced visibility with rain
will be the main impacts. MVFR conditions are possible. Light fog
is also being reported in far southeast Oklahoma which may impact
the DUA terminal. Will add a mention of fog, perhaps as low as 1SM
between 9-12Z Tuesday. Another round of thunderstorms may impact
WWR/PNC near the end of the TAF period. At this time will only
mention a chance at WWR between 3-6Z Wednesday. A rather gusty
southerly wind will develop at most TAF sites Tuesday morning and
will last well into Tuesday evening. Low-level wind shear is
possible Tuesday evening across central and southern Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  91  72  88  70 /   0  30  20  10
Hobart OK         98  69  92  68 /   0  20   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  97  76  94  73 /   0  10  20  20
Gage OK           97  64  87  63 /  10  40   0   0
Ponca City OK     91  68  86  66 /  50  60  10   0
Durant OK         93  76  91  73 /   0  10  20  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...06