985
FXUS64 KOUN 040335
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1035 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1031 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

- Rain is likely across south central/southeastern Oklahoma today
  with some potential for heavy rainfall.

- Seasonable temperatures continue today.

- Warm, above-normal temperatures and dry conditions expected next
  week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Area of showers and some drizzle has affected areas generally SE of
I-44 throughout the morning into early this afternoon. Most of this
activity has been light with occasional areas of heavier rain. Rain
chances will continue for the rest of the afternoon into tonight
with a gradual shrinkage of area, eventually being confined to parts
of south central/southeast OK before chances end early Sunday. Most
of the activity is expected to continue to be light with no
significant impacts but additional pockets of moderate rain can not
be ruled out. Due to the recent rainfall of several inches over this
area, any heavier rain may become problematic with localized areas
of flooding possible, especially in the usual flood-prone areas.

Afternoon temperatures are expected to warm into the 70s, especially
in those locations that receive sunshine. There is some uncertainty
with temperatures in those locations that remain cloudy, especially
in those areas that deal with clouds and rain throughout most of the
afternoon. Temperatures are expected to vary tonight with lows in
the 50s in parts of northern and western OK where less cloud cover
is expected to the mid 60s in SE OK where clouds are expected to
hang on the longest slowing any cool down.

Patchy fog will also be possible starting late tonight across
portions of the fa in areas where light winds, less cloud cover, and
saturated boundary layer conditions are able to combine.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Patchy fog will remain possible across parts of the fa through mid-
morning Sunday with the best chance in western third or so of the fa
where clearer skies, light winds, and saturated boundary layer are
expected.

Dry conditions and warmer temperatures are expected Sunday and
Monday as the upper high begins to nose into the region. Clouds are
expected to continue to decrease Sunday with plenty of sunshine both
Sunday and Monday. Temperatures are expected to warm into the upper
70s and 80s which are a few degrees warmer than average for this
time of year. The nights are still expected to be cool with most
locations falling into the 50s both Sunday and Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Above-normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected next
week as the westerlies retreat northward with a strengthening low-
level thermal ridge and the return to southerly winds.

Temperature spread among bias-corrected probabilistic guidance
remains minimal, with even the 10th percentile indicating warm,
above-normal temperatures through the end of the week. Both
deterministic and ensemble guidance point to an elongated mid-
level ridge (~585-587 dam) as the primary influence of the weather
across the Southern Plains. High temperatures toward the end of
the week are forecast to climb toward or even exceed 90 deg F.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Low clouds and a few showers will linger across central and
south-central OK into portions of western north TX into Sunday
morning, with clearing then expected through the day across much
of the area. Patchy fog and lower (IFR) ceilings are possible
later tonight into the morning in some areas, but dense fog is not
anticipated. North winds will increase slightly towards daybreak
but will remain generally light (at or below 10 knots) through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  74  62  82  56 /  20   0   0   0
Hobart OK         77  60  83  56 /  10   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  76  62  83  58 /  20  10  10   0
Gage OK           77  56  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     74  59  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         75  64  83  60 /  60  30  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...08