083
FXUS64 KOUN 190357
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1057 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1055 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

 - Hot and humid conditions expected this weekend into next week.

 - Rain chances will be near zero through the middle of the
 upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

An MCV, which is progressing east-northeastward along the
northwest periphery of the upper ridge, was quite prominent on
visible satellite and radar imagery this morning over the Texas
panhandle. There have been a few light showers associated with
this MCV over northwest Oklahoma. While most model guidance is
void of QPF for today, the 12Z runs of the NSSL MPAS models do
show localized rainfall amounts up to 1 inch today as a result of
this MCV (mainly the northern tier of counties). Rain potential
could be mitigated with the drier air mixing into the area and
track of the MCV. Thunderstorm and heavier rainfall potential
should remain to our north. However, we would not be surprised if
far northern Oklahoma saw isolated showers/thunder.

Afternoon high temperatures will be roughly 5 to 10 degrees higher
than yesterday. Recent observational trends have shown higher
dewpoint temperatures than previously forecast over parts of
northern, east-central, and southeastern Oklahoma. A Heat Advisory
has been issued until 7PM for parts of southeastern Oklahoma,
where several hours of 100 to 105 degree heat index values are
expected. While heat index values are nearing criteria levels
over parts of north-central Oklahoma, the duration should be
shorter with drier air expected to lower these within the next
hour or two.

Thompson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

The heat intensifies over our area this weekend, with high temperatures
in the upper 90`s to over 100 degrees, and sunny skies. While dewpoint
temperatures decrease some tomorrow, heat index values could reach
criteria level tomorrow over north-central and southeastern Oklahoma.
A Heat Advisory is more likely on Sunday with an uptick in low-
level moisture.

A lee-side surface trough will maintain breezy southerly winds with
gusts to 25 mph possible both days.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

The upper ridge dominates the synoptic pattern for the southern
and southeastern CONUS. Breezy southerly winds and dry conditions
persist through the long term with high temperatures rising to
slightly above-average.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Southerly winds are expected to diminish overnight across most of
the area, excepting northwest Oklahoma. Winds will then become gusty
from the south by late Saturday morning and continue through the
afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  95  74  97  75 /  20   0   0   0
Hobart OK         98  74 102  75 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  98  73 101  77 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           91  74 100  75 /  20   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     91  74  97  75 /  30   0   0   0
Durant OK         97  74  98  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...14